Perhaps there is no harsher gauge of the sorry state of Trump’s presidency than this: Yesterday the White House released names of the featured artists scheduled to perform at Trump’s 4th of July festival on the National Mall. Among those artists was (were?) Milli Vanilli. I’m serious. I’m not sure this is the original Milli Vanilli, but that’s the name on the program. (Update: Only one of the pair is still alive, and he’s assembled a band with the same name, but it’s not the same act.)
And today Milli Vanilli and several other people on the program announced they won’t be performing. Most of them said they had no idea that this was a White House event when they agreed to it, and they bailed because they won’t be associated with Trump. Most of these artists I didn’t recognize, but I’m reading a lot of them were big in the 1990s. The only performers whose names I recognized who haven’t dropped out are Vanilla Ice and Garth Brooks.
Yesterday Josh Marshal posted Trump’s Weakness Is Becoming the Political Story of the Moment. In brief, Trump’s calculated stunts and tough guy act are losing their effectiveness.
We’re seeing this now because the evidence in front of us has become so overwhelming. On another level, though, his political weakness has taken the juice out of his constant razzmatazz of political domination — the stunts, the takedowns, the cartoonish public choreography, the ritual slayings of former allies. Trump has always used these spectacles of power to keep alive the idea that he always has the last say, that he’s always the strongest, toughest guy in the room. He punishes; others endure, as sure as gravity pulls objects down rather than up. But the scale of the unpopularity and political weakness is just too great. They’ve reached a critical mass where the whole carnival of power isn’t resonating in the same way, or maybe not at all. The change is both being driven by and driving his deteriorating hold on Capitol Hill. These stunts and antics are a kind of ideational gerrymandering, aimed at holding perceptions of Trump’s power — and thus to a real degree the reality of his power — in place. But like an electoral gerrymander, in the face of sufficient unpopularity they become brittle and can break suddenly. And that’s what appears to be happening.
Trump is unpopular, and popular culture can be cruel. The hard-core base is still with him, but a whole lot of other people who voted for him in 2024 now consider him to be a bad joke. And Trump lacks the self-awareness to turn that around.
Allegedly we’re getting close to a peace deal again.
U.S. officials are closing in on an agreement with Iran that could extend the cease-fire, lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and set the table for more substantive talks, according to three U.S. officials with knowledge of the discussions.
The “memorandum of understanding” still needs approval from President Trump and Iran has not yet confirmed any commitments. Details of it emerged on Thursday after the fragile cease-fire between the United States and Iran was shaken by military skirmishes this week, and after Mr. Trump asserted that he felt no political pressure to quickly achieve a peace deal.
This sounds like what was predicted — the deal would involve the U.S. backing off and the strait being opened, but there would be only continued talks involving Iran’s nuclear fuel. But Trump seems to be trying hard to not appear to be to eager. But see The TACO Equilibrium by Rogé Karma at The Atlantic.
For the past three months, the global oil market seems to have been operating under the assumption that, before too long, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and oil will start flowing again.
That assumption is rooted in a deeper underlying belief: that Trump will inevitably back down once the economic pain gets high enough. This is the so-called TACO theory of Trump’s decision making, as in “Trump Always Chickens Out.” “The market has correctly realized there’s an audience of one who will determine the outcome of this, and that’s Trump,” Arnab Datta, a managing director at the think tank Employ America who specializes in energy markets, told me. “Among traders, the assumption is that the pain can only get so high before Trump retreats.”
That logic turns out to be dangerously circular. Prices are low because investors expect Trump to end the war before prices get too high; but because prices are low, Trump faces less pressure to end the war. In fact, the president seems to have figured out that he can calm the oil markets simply by gesturing at the prospect of a peace deal every so often. Of course, a peace deal or a new cease-fire could still be announced at any moment. But the dynamic between Trump and the markets—call it the TACO equilibrium—is what has kept the war going longer than almost anyone expected.
I can’t even imagine what is going on in Trump’s head here, other than he wants to avoid looking like a loser. Meanwhile, one of his most recent projects is spending taxpayer dollars to cover some bronze statues in D.C. with gold leaf. Like I said, he has no self-awareness.
I'm thrilled that artists are bailing on 45's event. I suspect he's going to have to pay attendees to fill the stands.
Pay attention to politicians who are likewise bailing – Massie didn't seem too unhappy about losing the primary last week, and Tulsi Gabbard left early enough to maybe still carve out a career for herself.
I'd rather she didn't. She can go away now. Maybe take up knitting.
Gabbard seems to have been a [lonely] voice against the Iran war (presumably why she was excluded from the meeting where Bibi talked Trump into it), and I applaud her for that. With her gone, some NeoCon hack will probably get her chair and resume the process of stacking our Intel bureaucracy with their puppets.
Gabbard has burned too many bridges to ever get backing from either major Party; Big Donors only want *reliable* tools, and she hasn't proven that she "stays bought".
Her obvious next professional step would be as a Talking Head on TV – always looks and sounds great, thinks well on her feet, and often has unconventional perspective on things. But the Media Corps have divided up into political camps, so I doubt any of the big outlets would hire her.
She'll probably wind up as a regular guest on various gadfly outlets, on both the Right (Carlson, Napolitano) and the Left (Young Turks, etc).
I doubt the Young Turks would talk to her. You appear to have forgotten her behavior during the 2020 Democratic primary debates. She stank up the stage taking right-wing positions and spewing right-wing talking points. Whatever claim she had to being a “progressive” she completely shredded back then. She also was saying things about foreign policy that weren’t true.
The litany of misguided politics continues as does the corruption. Another day another rumor of a pending deal which will leave the country and the world much worse off than we were before it was started. Since the United States is not presently acting like a democracy calling it a war we started is really inappropriate. Calling it a defensive action would be obscene. The charge of the lightheaded brigade? The battle of Big Horny? Whatever we end up calling it remember we may lose the peace worse than we lost the pronoun without an honest antecedent. The word or words for which the pronoun stands which may or may not have an associated gender is. of course, the antecedent. Can a pronoun be hyphenated? Would **it-fit work?
Waiting on details from the **it-fit accord. Still and again.
*Allegedly we’re getting close to a peace deal again.*
I have a very nice bridge for sale, only used by a little old lady to go to church on Sundays.
The stories coming out of Washinton sound as believable as Gulliver's Travels, well almost.
Iran has what looks like set demands, among which are the lifting of sanctions, return of some of Iran's "frozen" funds, and control of the Straits by Iran and Oman. So far, I think the US has offered to *consider* lifting sanctions and returning the money. Is anyone other than the fools in the White House dumb enough to think that Iran will trust the USA on this?
However the kicker is the Iranian demand for peace on all fronts. This means Israel must get out of Lebanon. I suspect this last demand is completely non-negotiable. From a political point of view, Iran will not abandon an ally and I suspect that Shi'a ethics say the same thing.
So to get a decent peace treaty a key action for Trump and cabal is to rein in Netanyahu and his merry band of mass murders. Given the fact that it looks like Trump's inner circle appear to be dedicated Zionists—see for example Kushner, Witkof, Lindsey Graham, among others—and many of his wealthiest doners are the same this could be politically dicey. Oh, I almost forgot the masses of Zionists in the House and Senate.
I suspect that Trump and his goons think they are in a real estate deal in New York City and that a mixture of bluff and threats will cow the Iranians. The recent violations of the ceasefire looks to be the first threats although the US military buildup gives the impression that Washington is ready for another attack, probably after most of the Haj pilgrims are home and safely out of bombing range.
The last day of the Haj is May 30 of 2026 so assuming 4–6 days to get most of 2 million pilgrims on planes we may be seeing an attack by the end of next week. Of course Trump is ignorant enough and stupid enough to ignore the Haj issue and attack at any moment.
If he does so, hopefully most of the pilgrims will still be on the West Coast of Saudi Arabia but I'd worry that a lot may be staging through Dubai.
Quick follow-up from Al Jazzeera