Multiple news outlets are reporting that Trump and Iran have agreed on a peace deal, and this information is coming from Trump and from Pakistan, which mediated the deal. WaPo:
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on social media that both sides “have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon,” and that an official signing ceremony will be on Friday in Switzerland. Mediators would hold a series of meetings this week, Sharif said.
I expect tomorrow we’ll hear more about how much Trump caved to get the Strait of Hormuz open. The news stories so far are only reporting what Trump is saying is in the deal, which I don’t trust to be true. And it’s still uncertain if Israel will stop striking at Hezbollah in Lebanon, so we may be lucky to make it to the signing on Friday.
Trump apparently believed the deal would be signed today, possibly during an intermission in his White House UFC whatever-it-is. Axios:
The president is racing to save a deal that nearly collapsed the moment Israel struck Beirut, leaning on private diplomacy and public messaging to get it signed. Iranian officials haven’t confirmed a deal is expected to be signed today.
“It shook it up. It delayed the signing by a few hours. It was supposed to be now. Now it is scheduled for a few hours from now,” Trump said in a phone call.
The escalation in Lebanon took place hours before the U.S. and Iran were supposed to sign a deal to end their war. …
,,, Trump said he was shocked when his advisers called to brief him about the Israeli strike in Beirut, and he fumed at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“It is so bad — I couldn’t believe it. An hour before we are supposed to sign the deal.”
Trump acknowledged Hezbollah attacked Israel first but stressed it didn’t cause any damage and nobody had been killed.
“Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement. I let him know that,” Trump said.
Netanyahu may yet manage to screw up the deal. We’ll see.
The test has begun. Can Trump keep Netanyahu under control for even a couple of months? Trump thinks he can, but his thinking shows multiple warning signs of imminent failure. Iran knows this. Trump is known to overpromise and underdeliver. Then there is Netanyahu. Only Trump would buy a used car from that man and take it on a long road trip with a 60-day guarantee from him and no plan B, C, and D. Iran knows this too.
By accident it could work, but the next test will need even more effort and skill. This one is only to establish there is a minimum level of competency.
I have no inside knowledge of this, but I don't think anyone other than the radical conservative wing of the Israeli legislature has any influence at all with Be-Bee.
Not to mention the fact that AIPAC in the US has considerable influence with this administration, which puts some limits on what this administration can actually do to "end the war".
Notwithstanding those points, I feel like I am on solid ethical ground when I say that I don't think the people of the legitimate country of Israel should have to live with the fact that several other countries in that region have declared the goal of destroying Israel, and have therefore engaged in ongoing occasional but persistent terrorist actions (including rocket and missile attacks) over the decades. Israeli citizens should not have to put up with that.
The region is a hot mess. IMO, that is because there has been no independent entity to enforce appropriate consequences for inter-country terrorist actions. I have no easy solution to that problem, but I'm convinced that it is one of the root causes of that region being a hot mess.
Years ago, when I was noticing the similarity between humpty's first admin and organized crime organizations, I learned that (in historians' opinions) the reason for the rise of organized crime in Sicily was that the reality that the regular police were not protecting ordinary citizens from crime, so the mafia groups stepped in and offered "protection". An interesting dynamic that seems to have parallels with the situation in the middle east.
AP News headline:
Iran and US reach a tentative deal to end war as Israel rules out withdrawing from seized land
Yeah, that's the crux of the biscuit. Bibi probably mollified Trump by promising not to bomb Beirut again, but I can't imagine he'd agree to pull out of southern Lebanon.
Iran probably understands the Wag the Dog problem, so maybe they can work around it. My only thought on this so far is that Iran might reserve the right to attack IDF forces inside Lebanon, and Trump might have to agree to have the US military stand aside if/when they do. Lotsa devils in the details in anything like this, though.
I heard (From Digby's, I think) that Trump is offering to make the US "guardian of the middle east" for 20% of their export revenues. Of course, we don't have the ability to protect shipping (and we'll have even less ability in 60 days when Iran reams), and, Iran was offering a teeny $2million/vessel, which was a lot less than 20%.
That's assuming the peace deal doesn't work out the way Trump wants it to. If it does, I think Iran gets half their frozen assets up front, then half again when the strait is open, and, presumably, get to sell their oil again.
As someone put it, "Trump said the war would end in unconditional surrender, and he was right."