Trump has managed to alienate Canada from the U.S., for no discernible reason. It’s like he just enjoys pissing people off.
The trade talks– over a policy that Trump initiated in his first term, mind you — broke down. The Canadians say this was over last-minute unreasonable demands from the U.S.. I say it all boils down to Trump thinking he owns the Western Hemisphere now.
What happened? The talks appeared to be going well, and then suddenly Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney walked out of them, and Trump blew up and declared a (no doubt illegal) 50 percent tariff on Canada. Canada has since announced a retaliatory tariff on the U.S. And this is going to cost both countries a lot of money.
I’m reading conflicting stories in the news, and I suspect a lot of details have not been made public. Both sides are accusing the other side of making unreasonable last-minute demands. Let’s just say I am inclined to believe the Canadians on this one. Springing unreasonable last-minute demands during negotiations is a long-standing Trump trick. Among other things, PM Carney is saying that the U.S. wanted to restrict Canada’s ability to make separate trade deals with other countries.
Carney said Washington introduced language in the final hours of negotiations that would have restricted Canada’s ability to make trade deals with other countries. He said that demand was “unacceptable” and “a question of sovereignty.”
British Columbia Premier David Eby said accepting such a condition would have reduced Canada “to the economic equivalent of the 51st state” — a status Trump has mused about often.
Trump had a meltdown.
The president has repeatedly talked about making Canada the 51st U.S. state and dismissed the allies’ border as artificial. On Sunday, Trump returned to that theme, writing on Truth Social that “Canada wants the benefits of being a State, without being one!!!” and accusing Canada of charging U.S. farmers “massive amounts” of tariffs for years. “No more!!!” he wrote.
I checked on Trump’s claims about tariffs on U.S. agriculture. Canada has charged tariffs on U.S. dairy, poultry, and eggs to protect Canadian dairy and chicken farmers. On other agricultural products the high tariffs kicked in only if the imports went over a predetermined quota. Which sounds to me like discouraging the U.S. from dumping surplus unsold corn or soybeans or whatever on Canada.
Further, the Montreal Gazette is reporting that the U.S. “wanted concessions on Quebec’s rules for appliances and instruction manuals, as well as its law promoting French-language cultural content.” What the bleep?
It also sounds as if there may have been too many cooks in the kitchen on the U.S. side. The chief negotiator was U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. But U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick got involved also. And I’m reading between the lines a bit here, but it sounds as if these three may not have been on the same page. But as I’ve said, I don’t think we have the whole story yet.
Note also there is widespread reporting that Canadians are supporting Carney for standing up to Trump. The political fallout for Trump is yet to fall.
See also:
David Frum, How to Lose a Trade War at The Atlantic.
Josh Marshall, What Did Trump Do That Made Carney Walk Away? at TPM.
Update: Do read Thank You for Your Inattention to This Matter by David Graham at The Atlantic. It sounds as if the world is already moving on from Trump.
71 days to the November election. Tune the idiot out until then.
One of the psychics I follow says 45 is jealous of Carney – someone who's intelligent, can lead, won't be pushed around, and has the respect of the world.
Trump seriously thinks that Canada, like Greenland, should belong to him. I mean be part of the U.S.A. Which Trump seems to think is his property now. It appears that part of this "deal" was intended to chip away at Canadian sovereignty.
Canada was in 2025 the #2 US trading partner, close to even in imports and exports. It's probably true that a trade war will hurt Canada more in the short term. In the long term, they will find different trading partners and we'll see how they do. I wish them well. One of their big exports is petrolium and they have diversified with the completion of a pipleine that puts Asia in reach. Trump may think that Canada has no options except to trade with the US. That's not the case, but nobody may be telling Orangman.
This is probably a heads-up to Mexico that Trump will try to run them down under threat of military action over "drugs." But big business was and is highly leveraged in both those countries and Trump is messing with their bottom line. Trump screwed over US ranchers with a deal to import cheaper beef. The only faction getting rich by Trump are the crooks and fly-by-night insiders who cash in on knowing what and when to buy and sell, or place bets based on secret info.
I don't see any planning from the GOP to reverse the economic trend – prices going up faster tha wages. Layoffs and a lousy job market. Fewer and more expensive internation markets. US consumers tightening their belts even more. The bond market says investers are bearish on the full faith and credit promise of the US. I have to remind the reader that the US economy was in free fall when FDR took over. We can turn this around because we have but the voter is going to have to demand a 'tax the rich' mentality that Congress will need the balls to pass. Two more years of pain might just do it.
Teddy the rough-rider said to talk softly and carry a big stick notes David Graham of the Atlantic. Donnie in his current stage of regression, Mr. Graham sees as in reverse, talking loudly while flaunting a diminutive stick. What a great build-up to the line crediting the former with the bully-pulpit and the latter with a better again Bullshit-pulpit or better named…again-bitter bullshit pulpit.
Great link.
Canada, how can we ever make up for this?
We are not sure. Given good behaviour on the part of the USA, we may begin to have a small amount of trust in the USA in two or three generations. But it is likely to be given grudgingly and with great reservations.
The problem from my side of the border is that Trump has managed to turn an autocratic "imperial" presidency, into something approaching a dictatorship. I, and I expect most Canadians, see no reason to think that the next US president, be they from the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, or the Donald Duck Reform Party will not continue to grasp all the probably unconstitutional powers that Trump has seized and continue to rule capriciously and/or in ways that continue to be harmful and dangerous to Canada.
Remember the only country to ever invade Canada or the colonies that became Canada is the USA.
David Graham in his Atlantic article writes, "This diminished respect given to presidential statements is self-evidently bad for Trump, and it does nothing to make America great again. But it’s also bad for the world. Even now, no other country has the power the U.S. has to maintain order, and the closest challengers, Russia and China, pursue systems that are repressive and dangerous".
At the moment, I tend to see the USA as a rouge state, not a country that maintains order. In fact, I see China and Russia as better likely allies than a country that is attacking us economically and threatening to annex us and turn Canada into a 51?? state.
Canada should be very seriously looking into partnership or, better, full membership in BRICS. Mexico may want to reconsider and join BRICS too. I believe Mexico turned down an invitation some time ago mainly not to annoy the USA. We are far past that now.
I don't blame Canada at all. If it's any consolation, the U.S. is no longer any kind of dominant global leader of anything, except maybe in news coverage. I never bought into the "American exceptionalism" idea, but from now on the U.S. will be just another country, and not the leader of anything. In the long run that may not be a bad thing, but my fellow country-people are going to have a hard time adjusting.
I just heard some guy from the Trump regime on television say that "Canada doesn't have a military."
Trump screwed over US ranchers with a deal to import cheaper beef.
I also see they're slaughtering wild horses. I hope there isn't a connection between these two stories!
From the Toronto Star: "As the prime minister described it, he was faced with a trade agreement that was suddenly transformed into an attack on Canadian sovereignty, an attempted psychological annexation that could have turned Canada into an American client state, a sort of North American Belarus."
My wife is from Minsk so we follow politics in Belarus. Over the last 20 years it's only gotten worse. Putin has the crooked dictator-president like a marionette on his strings. The first attack on Keiv was launched from Belarus. Reportedly, Putin has parked nukes in Belarus. Russians have moved there in large numbers driving up housing costs and treating the locals like vassels of a conquored state. So the metaphor is an apt desription of what the Trump treatment would be.
Paul Krugman thinks Trump will lose the trade war. See The Moose That Roared.