Wisconsin Recall Update and Other Stuff

Today the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board announced that six Republican state senators but no Democrats will face recall elections Republicans submitted petitions to recall three Democrats, but the Board said, in effect, that the signatures appeared to be hinky.
Greg Sargent

Dems have alleged that the signature gathering by Republicans is fraudulent, and now the board has explicitly claimed that their reason for not approving the recall elections against Dems is that the signatures “have raised numerous factual and legal issues which need to be investigated and analyzed.”

Translation: The fraud allegations just may have something to them.

The three Dems might still face recalls once the signatures have been thoroughly investigated. But, curiously, the funds requested to pay for the investigation have not yet been forthcoming from the Republican-dominated state Senate.

Tonight in Washington, House Republicans voted as a block against raising the debt ceiling without conditions. Dems split on the issue; Steny Hoyer advised his fellow Dems to vote no, also, and for the life of me I can’t understand why.

I can only assume that Hoyer is worried raising the debt ceiling will be unpopular. And it may well be; as I’ve said earlier, I don’t think most voters understand the issue. But they’ve got to do it eventually. By mid-August, to be precise. And I’m hearing that Republicans are privately telling Wall Street that they will raise the debt limit; don’t worry. See the BooMan for commentary. I’m tired.

Health Care Cost News

The most recent defense of the Paul Ryan Medicare-busting plan is that at least Republicans have a plan; Democrats don’t. In fact, there is a lot of Medicare reform written into the Affordable Care Act, although most of the reform hasn’t gone into effect yet. Beyond that, saving Medicare is going to require lowering health care costs overall while increasing revenues, preferably through economic growth. If those last two things are not done, busting Medicare will be the least of our problems, IMO.

The Obama Administration actually is doing stuff to get health care costs under control. This is interesting:

It’s getting personal now. In a shift still evolving, federal enforcers are targeting individual executives in health care fraud cases that used to be aimed at impersonal corporations.

The new tactic is raising the anxiety level — and risks — for corporate honchos at drug companies, medical device manufacturers, nursing home chains and other major health care enterprises that deal with Medicare and Medicaid.

In the past, such companies caught breaking the rules were required to pay fines. So the company would cut the government a check, and the cost of the fine got passed on to customers, and the executives lived to defraud another day. Think Rick Scott.

Now, on top of fines paid by a company, senior executives can face criminal charges even if they weren’t involved in the scheme but could have stopped it had they known. Furthermore, they can also be banned from doing business with government health programs, a career-ending consequence.

Works for me.

By some estimates, health care fraud costs taxpayers $60 billion a year, galling when Medicare faces insolvency.

We were talking about this in the comments recently.

Elsewhere — today the New York Times has a story about one Medicare cost-control plan that’s about to be implemented —

For the first time in its history, Medicare will soon track spending on millions of individual beneficiaries, reward hospitals that hold down costs and penalize those whose patients prove most expensive.

The administration plans to establish “Medicare spending per beneficiary” as a new measure of hospital performance, just like the mortality rate for heart attack patients and the infection rate for surgery patients.

The article doesn’t explain this clearly, I don’t think. The program will compare costs AND outcomes, so that hospitals won’t be rewarded just for being cheap. They will be rewarded for providing better outcomes at lower cost. Obviously, one point to this is to discourage medical facilities from over-treating patients so they can bill Medicare for more money. Over-treatment can be just as detrimental to outcomes as under-treatment.

However, the hospitals don’t like this part:

Hospitals could be held accountable not only for the cost of the care they provide, but also for the cost of services performed by doctors and other health care providers in the 90 days after a Medicare patient leaves the hospital.

I believe I understand why the Administration is doing this, although the article doesn’t explain it as well as it could be explained. I have been reading for a while that a bit items of “waste” in Medicare is the cost of re-admission to hospitals. According to a really klutzy powerpoint presentation by the Department of Health and Human Services, about 30 percent of Medicare patients who are released from hospitals have to be re-admitted within 30 days, and 75 percent of those re-admissions are preventable, and the cost of preventable re-admission comes to $12 billion a year in wasted Medicare money. So, that’s a lot.

In its state data center, the Commonwealth Fund estimates how much money each state’s Medicare program could save if re-admissions are reduced. Mississippi, for example, would save $24,016,832 every year if it could get its high readmission rate under control.

Causes of preventable re-admission include (a) the patient was discharged too soon; (b) the patient developed an infection or pneumonia after leaving the hospital; (c) the patient was discharged to another facility, such as a nursing home, that wasn’t able to care for him properly. The point is that hospitals shouldn’t just kick patients out without at least some communication and coordination with whoever is going to be taking care of them next.

In the article, one hospital administrator has a legitimate gripe, seems to me. He says this policy will be detrimental to inner-city hospitals serving larger numbers of immigrant and uninsured patients. Maybe the demographics of a hospital’s patients ought to be factored into this. But it really isn’t outrageous to penalize hospitals with higher than average re-admission rates, or whose patients need more treatment than other patients with the same conditions after discharge.

Update: See also Kevin Drum.

Memorial Day

See also “A Memorial Day Look at Afghanistan.”

Elsewhere — Breitbart has been pushing a hoax story about Anthony Weiner, and the dopey dupes in the Right Blogosphere are in a feeding frenzy over it. The genuinely scummy thing about this is that a young woman implicated in the story has become a target of the goon squad and has had her private life thoroughly demolished by the goons.

Righties — on the evolutionary tree somewhere between piranha and mosquitoes.

Update: Rep. Weiner hired an attorney.

Update: Jim Hoft descends to new lows of creepiness.

Medicare and Other Follies

I hope everyone gets some sunshine, beer and cookout sometime this weekend.

On to business — Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says that cuts to Medicare are requisite to Republican approval of a debt ceiling raise. So that’s it — they’re holding Medicare hostage.

Steve Benen: “The talking point isn’t complicated: Senate Republicans will create a recession unless Democrats agree to Medicare cuts.” Yep. See also David Kurtz.

Talk about low expectations — this guy named Joe Nocera (Frank Rich’s replacement at the NY Times? Yikes!) says that even though the Paul Ryan Medicare plan is really, really bad, we should not be heaping such scorn on it. Why? “Because even if Ryan’s solution is wrongheaded, he’s right that Medicare is headed for trouble.”

Oh, give me a break. Everyone in America above the age of 6 knows Medicare is headed for trouble. I suspect there are border collies and even part of the raccoon population that knows Medicare is headed for trouble.

Then Nocera says, “The debate we need is not about whether Medicare should be reformed, but how.” Yes, and we’ve been trying to have that debate. The Affordable Care Act passed last year made quite a few changes to Medicare and laid some groundwork for bringing down costs, although most of the changes haven’t gone into effect. But most of the public has no idea how the ACA affects Medicare, because all they’ve heard about is have been screaming Republican demagoguery — Death panels! Rationing!

Which takes us to the larger point — Yes, Mr. Nocera, we need to be having a serious national talk about Medicare. We need to have serious national talks about a lot of things. We’ve needed to have such talks for a long time. Are you really so clueless to not understand why we never have such talks? Have you been living on another planet for the past 20 — nay, 30 — years?

As Steve M says, “But these are modern Republicans we’re talking about.” You want to have a serious debate to find workable solutions? With them? Are you nuts?

How long is it going to take these “pundits” to notice that modern Republicanism isn’t so much a political party as a mass hallucination?

Last week the House Republicans, apparently running out of new ways to restrict abortion, put out a “jobs” plan. The plan reveals the House Republicans have absolutely no idea how create jobs. Here it is (Acrobat v. X probably required), and it’s a joke. There’s not a serious “solution” in it.

Steve Benen again:

As we discussed yesterday, the jobs agenda, such as it is, is practically a conservative cliche: the GOP wants massive tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, more coastal oil drilling, and huge cuts to public investment. Republicans are confident this will work wonders, just as they were equally confident about the identical agenda in the last decade, and the decade before that, and the decade before that.

I liked this bit:

The agenda is the agenda: tax cuts for the wealthy, deregulation, cut public investments. Good times and bad, deficit or surplus, war or peace, it just doesn’t matter.

It’s as if someone bought an iPod, uploaded one song, and hit “shuffle.”

Heh. He continues,

… the Republican Party is intellectually bankrupt. It has no new ideas, no constructive solutions, no creativity, no depth of thought, no recollection of how and why this same foolish agenda didn’t work before. The GOP just has warmed-over nonsense, to be brought out year after year, with the hopes that the public has short enough memories that we won’t notice or mind.

Krugman:

Oh, and while some people are still trying to praise Ryan for starting a useful conversation, the reality is that he’s totally unwilling to let facts enter the debate. Look at his exchange with Ezra Klein over health care costs: this is not the sound of a sincere, open-minded guy,. Notice how he evades Klein’s attempt to get him to accept the overwhelming fact that other countries pay much less for health care than we do.

Yeah, notice that.

Post-Jewish Zionism

A few days ago Matt Yglesias said a true thing

Protecting Israel is a special project taken on by the United States. The reasons may be good and bad, but it’s a burden we undertake. Israel does us no favors and is no use to us. Recognizing that fact hardly solves the decades-long Arab-Israeli conflict, but it ought to be the starting point for what Americans should debate–not Israel’s policy toward its Palestinian subjects but America’s policy toward Israel.

This is something that needs to be acknowledged — that for all the heat and passion many Americans pour into support for Israel, there’s nothing about Israel that qualifies it as an exceptionally critical interest for the United States. And this has nothing to do with being “for” or “against” Israel; it’s just an acknowledgment that the U.S. gets nothing out of whatever deal we’ve made with Israel.

The United States gives the country billions in aid. Indeed, it is the largest recipient of American foreign assistance in the world, even though it’s neither a poor country nor a large one. Netanyahu explained that his country and ours are such good friends because “we stand together to defend democracy.”

But, as Matt points out, Israel contributes nothing to international efforts toward democracy, including peacekeeping efforts around the globe. There are other small countries, such as The Netherlands, doing their bit, but not Israel. Israel looks out for Israel. There’s nothing wrong with that; Israel has particular problems that The Netherlands does not. But let’s stop kidding ourselves that the U.S. relationship with Israel is of any particular benefit to anyone but Israel.

Matt says something else that I’ve also noticed, but which doesn’t get said much — fervent Zionism in the West is less and less about courting the “Jewish vote,” because western Jews are not of one mind on Israel. Certainly there are Jewish Zionists, but western Jews more often are hugely ambivalent about the situation in Israel and are not knee-jerk supporters of whatever the government of Israel does.

This led to the (Catholic) Rep. Joe Walsh (R-IL) complaining that “too many American Jews are not as pro-Israel as they should be.” I don’t want to presume to speak for American Jews, but they might say they are plenty pro-Israel; they just aren’t necessarily pro-Netanyahu.

Further, recent demographic trends are rendering Israel into something quite different from the enclave of western values many Americans want to believe it is.

Matt has written a couple of posts about post-Jewish Zionism, pointing out that the real engine driving knee-jerk support for Netanyahu is Christian Zionism mixed with Islamophobia.

The existence of Christian Zionists is, of course, not new. But what is new is that Israeli politics has drifted toward the hawkish right over the past ten years even as Jewish Americans remain on the progressive left. That change in Israeli politics, meanwhile, has been in part driven by a demographic shift away from the kind of secular ashkenazi Jews who predominate in the American population. At the same time, Christian Zionist sentiment has boomed in America and the Palestinian cause has never been less popular among America’s overwhelmingly non-Jewish population.

This is all part of what I’ve called the trend toward post-Jewish Zionism. That’s not to say that there are no Jewish Zionists in the United States (or Canada, etc.) but merely to observe that Jews as such are decreasingly relevant to the politics of Israel. In Europe, too, we’re seeing a boom of far-right parties (True Finns, Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party, the Danish People’s Party) with strong pro-Israel stands. And why shouldn’t there be? An Israeli government whose policies are based on putting zero moral weight on the welfare of Arabs is a natural partner for xenophobic anti-Muslim parties who appeal more to Europe’s local sociocultural majorities than to its small Jewish communities.

As the first commenter says,

Factoring out the Christian eschatology, post-Jewish Zionism, in either North America or Europe, is essentially about living vicariously through Israel as it fulfills their forbidden desire – to put a bunch of Muslims in a giant cage and shoot into it.

A lot of us have been critical of Israel not because we are anti-Israel, but because we think recent policies of the government of Israel are reckless and self-destructive and not in the best long-term interests either of Israel or the United States. The zealots will not listen to this, of course.

Update — See “Ass-Backwards in the Middle East.”

What Makes Newt Run?

For that matter, what makes Herb Cain or anyone else who doesn’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of being nominated, even as a Republican, run for president? The standard answer is that the campaign will generate considerable publicity, either for themselves or their pet causes, and this in turn will generate money-making opportunities or furtherance of their causes, or both.

But in Newt’s case, it’s unlikely his quixotic campaign will make his name any more recognizable that it was already. He’s already forged a lucrative post-politician career, making speeches and publishing books and appearing regularly on Fox News. Also, can anyone (including Newt) articulate what his “cause” is? Beside Newt?

It was alleged in the comments to the last post that Newt is running to raise money for himself. It’s illegal for a candidate to use campaign money for personal purposes, even if the campaign has ended. Of course, Newt has a history of playing fast and loose with donations. Allegations of using donations to PACs and other nonprofits for partisan purposes drove him to resign as Speaker of the House way back when.

But the laws have been tightened, and the FEC and other regulatory authorities seem to be investigating and prosecuting possible misuse of campaign funds pretty vigorously; think John Ensign and John Edwards. I don’t think Newt would get away with tapping into campaign donations as a source of income these days, even after considerable laundering.

And the fact is, he isn’t getting donations. Even money to his once-respected American Solutions PAC has dried up. Even if he thought his presidential run would enhance his brand and make him a more valuable commodity, it appears just the opposite is happening. (“It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one’s mouth and remove all doubt.” — attributed to Abraham Lincoln)

I think Newt genuinely believes he is a Great Man who deserves to be recognized as such by a fawning public. He may have believed that if he became a candidate, movement conservatism would swoon at his feet the way it did in 1994. Instead, it has passed him by.

See also — more on Callista’s bling.

GOP Follies

The day after being spanked over the Ryan Medicare-Killing Budget, Senate Republicans voted for it almost unanimously. The “no” voters were Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, Scott Brown, Olympia Snowe, and Rand Paul. Paul said the cuts in the budget weren’t deep enough.

Newt continues his quest to be the most pathetic man on the planet. He is now pledging his loyalty to the Ryan budget an instead is attacking “Obamacare.”

However, I say leave Newt alone about the $500,000 in charges at Tiffany’s. It appears at least some of the bling went to Callista. Compensation for, um, consortium? I mean, he’s Newt. At least she’s getting some nice jewelry.

Don’t miss these videos (transcripts included) of GOP Rep. Rob Woodall. Watch me first; watch me second.

Blowin’ in the Wind

Brief comments on three different news stories —

First, on the New York 26 election. Nate Silver is hyper-cautious about drawing conclusions from the election. Even so, the numbers should cheer Democrats and worry Republicans. The numbers say the Republicans can’t blame the loss on vote splitting by the Tea Party candidate (although of course that’s what most of them are falling back on today). Going by what is “normal” for that district, even with a split vote the Republican should have won, Nate says.

Rightie bloggers are blaming Jane Corwin for being a poor candidate and also low Republican voter turnout. But the Republican Party had pulled out every stop it could find to win that election. If Republican voters stayed home anyway, that’s not something the GOP can shrug off.

Erick Erickson says the race really was about New York state issues, not Medicare —

The public is furious at the New York state legislature — both parties — for refusing to pass Governor Andrew Cuomo’s property tax cap, ethics reform and other Christie/Walker/Daniels-style reforms. (The tax cap may finally have broken through just today). Cuomo’s been barnstorming the state for his agenda.

If they are furious with both parties, why should that have caused a Republican loss, especially when the election was about a U.S. House seat, not a state seat? And in any event, I live in New York, and I don’t see “furious.” The New York legislature has been so incompetent for so long the public pretty much ignores it.

And much credit goes to Kathleen Hochul, who is sharp and articulate and ran a tough, focused race. Democrats had better be noticing that they don’t dare squander the Medicare issue by caving to the GOP as it holds the debt ceiling hostage.

Second, tornadoes. The National Weather Service today has most of Illinois and a fair-size portion of Missouri, including St. Louis, under a tornado watch today. So the killer tornado streak could, possibly, continue. And the weather still appears stormy over Kansas and Oklahoma.

President Obama is in London today, Tomorrow he is supposed to go to France for a G8 summit, and on Saturday he has meetings in Poland. I think he should at the very least skip Poland and get home early. And Vice President Biden should cancel whatever else he is doing until the President gets home and be visibly present in the areas struck by tornadoes over the past few hours. These were significant storms.

Third, Netanyahu’s speech to Congress. I understand why Republicans wanted to play up Netanyahu’s disagreements with the White House. This was a big, fat signal to the Republican base as much as to AIPAC. President Obama has been on a streak of late, and the gOP will grasp at any straw it can find to embarrass him publicly.

But I read that Democrats were cheering and applauding Netanhahu’s insulting speech also, and that I do not understand. Knee-jerk support for Netanyahu at the expense of their president is not necessarily going to get them Jewish votes next year, AIPAC notwithstanding.