Beware the Talking Point!

I believe I have spotted the Republican talking point du jour–Orrin Hatch on CNN just spend several minutes fudging the distinction between covert and classified.

My understanding is that in 2003 Valerie Plame Wilson was not actively engaged in any covert operations (I could be wrong), yet her status with the CIA was classified. My understanding is that this classification was necessary to protect the identities of agents still in the field that Plame Wilson had worked with in covert operations in the past. There has been testimony that when Plame Wilson’s identity as an agent was revealed, some foreign governments worked backward to figure out what other people associated with Plame Wilson in the past might be CIA agents.

The rightie noise machine is trying to put out the meme that Wilson was not covert in 2003; revealing her status at the CIA was not a crime.

This is from page 3 of today’s indictments:

Joseph Wilson was married to Valerie Plame Wilson (“Valerie Wilson”). At all relevant times from January 1, 2002 through July 2003, Valerie Wilson was employed by the CIA, and her employment status was classified. Prior to July 14, 2003, Valerie Wilson’s affiliation with the CIA was not common knowledge outside the intelligence community.

Yet Hatch on CNN babbled on: She wasn’t covert. Therefore, “outing” her was no big deal. Expect the Right Blogosphere to pick up this point and run with it.

Page 2 of the indictment makes it clear that Libby was obligated not to disclose classified infomation:

As a person with such clearances, LIBBY was obligated by applicable laws and regulations, including Title 18, United States Code, Section 793, and Executive Order 12958 (as modified by Executive Order 13292), not to disclose classified information to persons not authorized to receive such information, and otherwise to exercise proper care to safeguard classified information against unauthorized disclosure. On or about January 23, 2001, LIBBY executed a written “Classified Information Nondisclosure Agreement,” stating in part that “I understand and accept that by being granted access to classified information, special confidence and trust shall be placed in me by the United States Government,” and that “I have been advised that the unauthorized disclosure, unauthorized retention, or negligent handling of classified information by me could cause damage or irreparable injury to the United States or could be used to advantage by a foreign nation.”

Watch out for usage of the words covert and classified over the next few days..

From the Indictment

As I keyboard Fitzgerald’s news conference is ongoing, but it seems to me the quality of the questions is deteriorating, so I’m movin on to something else. As I explained at the end of the last post, the big points from the press conference are these:

    The investigation is ongoing. A new grand jury is available to Fitzgerald if he needs one. He will not comment on Karl Rove or anyone not named in the indictment. He will not say if there will be other charges.
    The obstruction and perjury charges should not be interpreted to mean that Libby did not violate other laws. The charges mean Fitzgerald was unable to find out if other laws were violated or not, because of the obstruction.
    Also, I infer that Fitzgerald needed Judy Miller’s testimony to bring the perjury charge. Miller was an eyewitness to a crime as far as Fitzgerald was concerned.

I haven’t had time to digest the entire indictment, but this section, which begins on page 4 of the indictment, explains what happened up to the publication of Joe Wilson’s New York Times op ed.

This is from page 4 of the indictment:

4. On or about May 29, 2003, in the White House, LIBBY asked an Under Secretary of State (“Under Secretary”) for information concerning the unnamed ambassador’s travel to Niger to investigate claims about Iraqi efforts to acquire uranium yellowcake. The Under Secretary thereafter directed the State Department’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research to prepare a report concerning the ambassador and his trip. The Under Secretary provided LIBBY with interim oral reports in late May and early June 2003, and advised LIBBY that Wilson was the former ambassador
who took the trip.

5. On or about June 9, 2003, a number of classified documents from the CIA were faxed to the Office of the Vice President to the personal attention of LIBBY and another person in the Office of the Vice President. The faxed documents, which were marked as classified, discussed, among other things, Wilson and his trip to Niger, but did not mention Wilson by name. After receiving these documents, LIBBY and one or more other persons in the Office of the Vice President handwrote the names “Wilson” and “Joe Wilson” on the documents.

6. On or about June 11 or 12, 2003, the Under Secretary of State orally advised LIBBY in the White House that, in sum and substance, Wilson’s wife worked at the CIA and that State Department personnel were saying that Wilson’s wife was involved in the planning of his trip.

7. On or about June 11, 2003, LIBBY spoke with a senior officer of the CIA to ask about the origin and circumstances of Wilson’s trip, and was advised by the CIA officer that Wilson’s wife worked at the CIA and was believed to be responsible for sending Wilson on the trip.

8. Prior to June 12, 2003, Washington Post reporter Walter Pincus contacted the Office of the Vice President in connection with a story he was writing about Wilson’s trip. LIBBY participated in discussions in the Office of the Vice President concerning how to respond to Pincus.

9. On or about June 12, 2003, LIBBY was advised by the Vice President of the United States that Wilson’s wife worked at the Central Intelligence Agency in the Counterproliferation Division. LIBBY understood that the Vice President had learned this information from the CIA.

10. On June 12, 2003, the Washington Post published an article by reporter Walter Pincus about Wilson’s trip to Niger, which described Wilson as a retired ambassador but not by name, and reported that the CIA had sent him to Niger after an aide to the Vice President raised questions about purported Iraqi efforts to acquire uranium. Pincus’s article questioned the accuracy of the “sixteen words,” and stated that the retired ambassador had reported to the CIA that the uranium purchase story was false.

11. On or about June 14, 2003, LIBBY met with a CIA briefer. During their conversation he expressed displeasure that CIA officials were making comments to reporters critical of the Vice President’s office, and discussed with the briefer, among other things, “Joe Wilson” and his wife “Valerie Wilson,” in the context of Wilson’s trip to Niger.

12. On or about June 19, 2003, an article appeared in The New Republic magazine online entitled “The First Casualty: The Selling of the Iraq War.” Among other things, the article questioned the “sixteen words” and stated that following a request for information from the Vice President, the CIA had asked an unnamed ambassador to travel to Niger to investigate allegations that Iraq had sought uranium from Niger. The article included a quotation attributed to the unnamed ambassador alleging that administration officials “knew the Niger story was a flat-out lie.” The article also was critical of how the administration, including the Office of the Vice President, portrayed intelligence concerning Iraqi capabilities with regard to weapons of mass destruction, and accused the administration of suppressing dissent from the intelligence agencies on this topic.

13. Shortly after publication of the article in The New Republic, LIBBY spoke by telephone with his then Principal Deputy and discussed the article. That official asked LIBBY whether information about Wilson’s trip could be shared with the press to rebut the allegations that the Vice President had sent Wilson. LIBBY responded that there would be complications at the CIA in disclosing that information publicly, and that he could not discuss the matter on a non-secure telephone line.

14. On or about June 23, 2003, LIBBY met with New York Times reporter Judith Miller. During this meeting LIBBY was critical of the CIA, and disparaged what he termed “selective leaking” by the CIA concerning intelligence matters. In discussing the CIA’s handling of Wilson’s trip to Niger, LIBBY informed her that Wilson’s wife might work at a bureau of the CIA.

The News Conference

Fitzgerald’s news conference has been postponed to 2:15. I will live blog.

It’s beginning. Fitzpatrick speaks:

A federal grand jury returned a 5 count indictment against Libby.

National security was at stake, so we had to find out accurate facts.

It is important that the witnesses who come before a grand jury tell the complete truth.

Fall of 2003–when it was clear that VW’s cover had been blown, the investigation began. Libby was interviewed. Mr. Libby gave the FBI a compelling story that he got this information from Tim Russert.

Valerie Wilson was a CIA officer, and in July 2003 this was classified. Her friends, colleagues had no idea. It is important that a CIA officer’s identity be protected. Her cover was blown in July 2003. Mr. Novak was not the first reporter to be told about this. Libby told Miller; this was the first leak of her identity. Libby said when he passed this information on to reporters he had made it clear he didn’t know the story was true. Libby said the same thing to the grand jury, under oath. Just passing gossip. Long end of a change of phone calls.

This story was not true.

At least four people within the government had told Libby about VW before the Russert conversation. A full month before Novak’s column he discussed NW with a CIA somebody.

Fitzgerald continues to recount all of the circumstances in which Libby discussed VW with other people. Libby was the first government official to discuss this information with reporters.

Questions:

Q Began as a leak investigation but no one is charged with leaking.

A Investigation is not over. Substantial part of the work is concluded. Another grand jury will be kept open to consider other matters. Baseball analogy: If a pitcher hit a batter in the head with a ball, you’d like to know why he did that. Lots of reasons. What you want to do is have as much information as you could to find out what the batter might be thinking. Then you make a decision whether the pitch was deliberate or an accident.

What was done to Valerie Wilson was done to all of us. What we have are charges of obstruction of justice. I can’t tell you what Libby’s motives were. The obstruction charge is not less than a leak charge. This is a very serious matter.

Q Do you have evidence against Dick Cheney encouraged Libby.

A I don’t talk about people not charged in the indictment. We make no allegations about criminal acts. I will not comment on anyone but Libby. This is a standard practice. Don’t read anything into that.

Q What about the “senior official” mentioned in indictment.

A We can’t tell you everything we know. This is the law. We gather information, the explicit requirement is that if we don’t talk about people not under indictment.

Q Is Karl Rove off the hook, other individuals might be charged?

A Cannot comment.

Q What are you still working on?

A Cannot comment.

No one wants this over with more than I do. We hope to finish as soon as possible.

Q Damage done to all of us, to the nation. Can you be more specific?

A No, but let me say this. People who work at CIA have to expect that information and identities will be protected.

Q What about “leaks” from witnesses?

A Grand jury secrecy does not bind witnesses. Jurors or prosecutors cannot speak about grand jury, but witnesses are not restircted.

Q Were you troubled that people in government were talking about VW weeks before she was outed.

A Not my concern.

Q — I didn’t hear this question clearly.

Q What about Judy Miller?

A No one wanted to have a dispute with the NY Times. I didn’t have a vested interest in litigating it, a first amendment showdown. Our job was to find information. We thought long and hard before we issued subpoenaes. We only subpoenaed if we really needed that testimony. What we did in seeking that testimony was born out by judges rulings. (Miller’s testimony needed for perjury charges, apparently.)

Q You said Mr. Libby the first person to leak outside the government. Other people leaked? What can you tell us of other leakers?

A I can’t go beyond what’s in the indictment.

Q Did Mr. Libby know VW was covert?

A Let me say that I am not speaking to whether VW was covert. Her association with the CIA was classified. We do not know if Libby knowingly outed a covert agent.

Q Missed question; about secrecy and grand jury rules.

A Grand jury testimony rarely shared with congress.

Q Your critics charge you with being a partisan.

A One day I read I was a Repubican hack and the next day I was a Democratic hack. I am not registered with either party.

Q Final report?

A No final report. Used to be issued by independent counsels, included information about people not charged with crimes. I don’t have the authority to write a report. We should charge someone or be quiet.

Q Other prosecutors issued reports.

A I am not an independent counsel. I have to follow the code of federal regulations.

Q You are being criticized for not bringing charges in the underlying crime, outing a CIA agent.

A That doesn’t fly. Any notion that anyone might have that we are singling out a high official is just not true. We indict on obstruction all the time.

Q How did Wilson get sent to Niger; what was VW’s part in this.

A The only thing that’s relevant is the idea in the minds of some people that she was involved; this is not relevant to this investigation. The belief that she was involved is an issue, however.

Q Do you think Libby tried to discourage Miller’s testimony?

A I don’t comment on anything not in the indictment.

Q Why isn’t it a crime to give classified information to someone not authorized?

A He had to know it was classified. If Mr. Libby is proved to have done what we allege, this will vindicate the public’s interest. The point here is that we will make fine distinctions; we need to know the truth about what they said and what they know.

The act of obstruction keeps us from knowing the whole truth.

Q Will you participate in trial.

A Yes, part of team.

Q If information comes out in trial, what would you do?

A Any new information will be handled by our investigation team.

Q You won’t have a grand jury?

A We can use anothr grand jury.

Q You are dealing with memories from long ago. How can you prosecute that.

A That’s the point of the trial.

Q At the last minute there was FBI activity. Wlson’s neighbor’s interviewed. Why?

A With all respect, someone interviewed the guy who shined my shoes the other day. We wanted to get as much done before October 28 as we could. Don’t read anything into that.

Q Is this indictment a vindication of antiwar sentiment?

A This indictment is not about the war. People should not look to this indictment for vindication or resolution of how they feel. The indictment will not seek to know whether the war was justified or unjustified.

Q (questions garbled)

A All I’ll say; there is no statute that says it is a crime to pass on secret information. You have to know motive, state of knowledge, intent, facts; if the allegations in the indictment are true, then there is no way to know if Mr. Libby violated other laws. We didn’t get the straight story.

Now we’re getting down to the dumb questions. I think the major points discussed are these:

The investigation is ongoing. A new grand jury is available to Fitzgerald if he needs one. He will not comment on Karl Rove or anyone not named in the indictment.

The obstruction and perjury charges should not be interpreted to mean that Libby did not violate other laws. The charges mean Fitzgerald was unable to find out if other laws were violated or not, because of the obstruction.

He will not say if there will be other charges.

Live Waiting

I’m monitoring news sources and will live blog any announcements.

[Big update: The indictments are online (.PDF).]

12:24–documents have gone from the grand jury to a magistrate’s office, CNN says.

12:38–indictment documents are being “handed up.”

Motions are being filed with the court. Nothing public yet.

Here we are — Wolf Blitzer says Scooter Libby has been indicted on obstruction of justice, and also perjury and making false statements.

Specific charges:

One count of obstruction of justice

Two counts of perjury

Two counts of making false statements

Jeff Toobin is remarking that Dick Cheney will almost certainly be a witness at Scooter’s trial. Heh.

Scooter is expected to resign.

The indictment says that Scooter was gathering information on Joe Wilson in May 2003, which was before Wilson’s op ed piece appeared in the New York Times.

Here’s an Associated Press story on the Libby indictments.

The five-count indictment accuses Libby of lying about how and when he learned about CIA official Valerie Plane’s identity in 2003 and then told reporters about it. The information was classified.

Any trial would shine a spotlight on the secret deliberations of Bush and his team as they built the case for war against Iraq.

1:09–CNN says Libby resigned.

Fitz Watch

[Update: Fitzgerald will hold a news conference at 2:00 pm.

Update update: Reuters says “information on the case will be available at noon.”]

I’m not sure if last night’s story from the New York Times that suggests only Scooter Libby will be indicted today should be given much weight. In this morning’s Washington Post, Jim VandeHei and Carol D. Leonnig write that Libby and Rove are preparing for possible indictments. On the other hand, CNN just now (8:01 am) announced that Rove “apparently” dodged an indictment but will remain under investigation.

Via Josh Marshall, John Solomon and Pete Yost of the Associated Press write,

White House officials braced for the possibility that Vice President Dick Cheney’s top aide would be indicted in the CIA leak case, but held out hope presidential confidant Karl Rove might escape charges for the time being.

Special Counsel Patrick Fitzgerald signaled Thursday he might simply keep Rove under investigation, according to a person familiar with recent developments in the case who requested anonymity because of its sensitivity. That would spare Rove bad news Friday when the grand jury that has heard the case for two years is set to expire.

Solomon and Yost note that Dick Cheney and Scooter were up and about unusually early today. The Dick arrived at the White House at 6:25 this morning, and Scooter was seen leaving his home at 6:15.

Also via Josh, the Wall Street Journal reports (subscription required, and I don’t have one),

Karl Rove, President Bush’s chief political adviser and deputy White House chief of staff, was informed yesterday evening that he may not be charged today but remains in legal jeopardy, according to a person briefed on the matter. Mr. Fitzgerald, who meets with jurors this morning, has zeroed in on potential wrongdoing by I. Lewis Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff, and is likely to charge Mr. Libby at least with making false statements. The testimony of reporters who have been witnesses in the case has contradicted Mr. Libby’s public statements.

Mr. Fitzgerald appeared still to be pondering whether to charge Mr. Rove and has notified the political strategist that he remains under investigation.

Josh speculates that there are some negotiations going on between Fitzgerald and Rove. I speculate that perhaps these ongoing negotiations are delaying a Rove indictment, not ongoing investigation. VandeHei and Leonnig at WaPo write that “two legal sources” say Fitzgerald really does not want to empanel a new grand jury and would prefer to wrap the case up today.

Scootin’ Scooter?

Aaron Brown just announced on CNN that, according to the New York Times, Scooter Libby will be indicted tomorrow. Karl Rove, he said, will remain under investigation.

I scooted over to the New York Times web site. David Johnston and Richard Stevenson report:

Associates of I. Lewis Libby Jr., Vice President Dick Cheney’s chief of staff, expected an indictment on Friday charging him with making false statements to the grand jury in the C.I.A. leak inquiry, lawyers in the case said Thursday.

Karl Rove, President Bush’s senior adviser and deputy chief of staff, will not be charged on Friday, but will remain under investigation, people briefed officially about the case said. As a result, they said, the special counsel in the case, Patrick J. Fitzgerald, was likely to extend the term of the federal grand jury beyond its scheduled expiration on Friday.

That sounds to me as if the reporters were not absolutely certain. And I thought this grand jury’s term could not be extended, but that Fitzpatrick would have to round up a new grand jury if he needs one.

The reporters continue,

Mr. Fitzgerald’s preparations for a Friday announcement were shrouded in secrecy, but advanced amid a flurry of behind-the-scenes discussions that left open the possibility of last-minute surprises. As the clock ticked down on the grand jury, people involved in the case did not rule out the disclosure of previously unknown aspects of the case.

Jim VandeHei and Carol D. Leonnig at the Washington Post write that Libby and Rove have both assembled legal teams.

The White House, district court officials and two possible targets of the CIA leak investigation were making preparations yesterday for the possible announcement of indictments by special counsel Patrick J. Fitzgerald today, according to several sources familiar with the investigation.

Two sources said I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, Vice President Cheney’s chief of staff, was shopping for a white-collar criminal lawyer and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove began assembling a public relations team in the event they are indicted.

Now David Gergen is speaking to Aaron Brown and saying that it sounds as if Rove isn’t off the hook, and that the investigation will continue to distract him. Fitzpatrick will likely come under increased criticism for dragging things out if he keeps Rove under investigation, Gergen says.

Update
: John Aravosis at AMERICAblog writes,

If this is true, there will be one major indictment tomorrow, of Libby. But it looks like Fitzgerald won’t be finished. All week, we’ve been reading that the White House was just waiting for this to come to a conclusion so they could finally get their act together and get back to work. But if the Times is right, there isn’t a conclusion yet for Karl, by any means. Another grand jury looking even harder at Karl, that means Fitzgerald has his teeth into Karl and isn’t letting go (it also means we don’t have to update our Treason’s Greeting holiday cards – phew!). Just as importantly, Libby will be under indictment and Lord only knows what Fitzgerald is going to uncover about Cheney and the White House’s role in lying to the country about going to war in Iraq etc.

Obstruction

Murray Waas writes,

Vice President Cheney and his chief of staff, I. Lewis “Scooter” Libby, overruling advice from some White House political staffers and lawyers, decided to withhold crucial documents from the Senate Intelligence Committee in 2004 when the panel was investigating the use of pre-war intelligence that erroneously concluded Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, according to Bush administration and congressional sources.

Hmm, wonder if Harriet Miers was one of those lawyers?

Among the White House materials withheld from the committee were Libby-authored passages in drafts of a speech that then-Secretary of State Colin L. Powell delivered to the United Nations in February 2003 to argue the Bush administration’s case for war with Iraq, according to congressional and administration sources. The withheld documents also included intelligence data that Cheney’s office — and Libby in particular — pushed to be included in Powell’s speech, the sources said.

The Senate Intelligence Committee was looking into whether the CIA or other agencies had provided faulty intelligence to the Bush Administration as it prepared to go to war in Iraq. However, Waas writes,

… the committee deferred the much more politically sensitive issue as to whether the president and the vice president themselves, or other administration officials, misrepresented intelligence information to bolster the case to go to war. An Intelligence Committee spokesperson says the panel is still working on this second phase of the investigation.

Had the withheld information been turned over, according to administration and congressional sources, it likely would have shifted a portion of the blame away from the intelligence agencies to the Bush administration as to who was responsible for the erroneous information being presented to the American public, Congress, and the international community.

Waas writes that both Republicans and Democrats felt the investigation had been hampered by the White House’s refusal to hand over critical documents. It’s not too late for a do-over, I say.

Jesse Lee at the Stakeholder writes
that this passage from the Waas article stuck out:

At the same time, however, administration officials said in interviews that they cannot recall another instance in which Cheney and Libby played such direct personal roles in denying foreign policy papers to a congressional committee, and that in doing so they overruled White House staff and lawyers who advised that the materials should be turned over to the Senate panel.

Jesse Lee comments:

Notice anybody missing from that equation? Did President Bush even know there was a debate? Did he know there were any debates about anything ever?

Maybe he was busy working out on his mountain bike.

Via Josh Marshall
, Rep. Jerry Nadler is calling for expanding the Fitzgerald investigation “to look at a possible White House conspiracy to deceive Congress.”

Specifically, I’ve asked that Mr. Fitzgerald seek answers to three pressing questions: whether the CIA leak incident was part of a larger, deliberate effort to deceive Congress into authorizing war in Iraq, who exactly was involved, and whether any of their actions were criminal. If a larger, intentional effort was indeed underway – as evidence is tending to show that it was – that amounts to a criminal conspiracy.

President Bush may be spending the rest of his term huddled in a closet with his lucky pillow.

Home Alone

Via Kos, we learn that the Miers nomination was withdrawn after GOP senators privately told Andy Card that she wouldn’t be confirmed. For once, Bush must have listened.

Actually, that’s twice, and in two days. Yesterday he caved on Davis-Bacon after Andy Card talked to “a caucus of pro-labor Republicans.” Karl Rove, I assume, is huddled with his lawyers.

Most of us concluded the Miers withdrawal was timed to distract attention away from possible indictments of White House officials, but Dan Froomkin has another thought–the withdrawal was timed to be overshadowed by indictments of White House officials. He writes,

As Candy Crowley suggested on CNN, if there are indeed indictments tomorrow, the Miers withdrawal will be quickly forgotten. That wipes the slate clean, more or less, and gives President Bush an opportunity to pivot away from the leak scandal with a new Supreme Court nomination sometime in the next week or two.

CNN’s Jeff Greenfield also noted that the Miers withdrawal headlines in tomorrow’s papers will be a nice gift to Bush’s conservative base — on the very day indictments presumably come down and Bush really needs his most ardent supporters firmly in his court.

News media is brimming with speculation about what Bush will do next. Will he fight the indictments? Will the next nominee to replace Sandra Day O’Connor be a clone of Jabba the Hutt? Or will he move more cautiously if he doesn’t have Karl Rove whispering in his ear? Experience suggests the former, but the latter wouldn’t surprise me. At his core, Bush is a weenie. He can act boldly when he knows his gang of toughs are backing him up. But his inner circle is shrinking down to the his most obsequious courtiers–people who flatter Dear Leader’s ego but may not be much use in a fight.

Paul Begala writes at TPM Cafe:

When he came to Washington, Mr. Bush surrounded himself with tough-minded people who seemed not to be afraid to stand up to him. But now his team is loaded with weak-kneed toadies, and Mr. Bush is home alone. Karl Rove, of course, is fending off a potential indictment …

… What of the rest of Team Bush? Karen Hughes is at the State Department, as is Condi Rice. Al Gonzalez has decamped for Justice, and fellow Austinite Margaret Spellings is at the Department of Education. Harriet Miers is fighting a losing battle to avoid becoming a permanent punch line. Ari Fleischer is selling books and dispensing sage advice to corporations. And Mary Matalin is busy raising her girls and rallying the troops from the outside.

The exodus and incapacity were inevitable; replacing Bush’s stand-up guys and gals with suck-ups and sycophants was not.

Myriad pundits have pointed out recently that Ronald Reagan pretty much replaced the White House staff to get his second term back on track, as did Bill Clinton in his second term. And both presidents brought in solid people who were not necessarily long-time associates. But Bush went the opposite route; he drove the solid people away and wrapped himself in sycophany. Begala continues,

Mr. Bush would do well to augment his current staff, a C-Team if ever there was one, with some stronger characters. But to read the Bush-Miers correspondence is to gain a disturbing insight into Mr. Bush’s personality: he likes having his ass kissed. Ms. Miers’ cards and letters to the then-Governor of Texas belong in the Brown-Nosers Hall of Fame. You can be sure the younger and less experienced Bush White House aides are even more obsequious. The last thing this President wants is the first thing he needs: someone to slap his spoiled, pampered, trust-funded, plutocratic, never-worked-a-day-in-his-life cheek and make him face the reality of his foul-ups.

And so they wait. And they sniff the royal throne. They tell the Beloved Leader he’s the victim of a partisan plot (although how the Bush CIA, which referred the Plame case for prosecution, became ground zero of Democratic liberalism escapes me). They assure him all is well. But all is not well. People are looking over their shoulders. The smart ones have stopped taking notes in meetings. The very smart ones have stopped using email for all but the most pedestrian communications. And the smartest ones have already obtained outside counsel.

This White House might be saved if the old Repubican establishment would take the president into hand and give him some direction. But that is unlikely to happen, because the Bushies have pretty much destroyed the old Republican establishment. Sidney Blumenthal writes, “There is no one left to rescue the Republican Party from George W. Bush. He is home alone.”

Now the old establishment is faded. Its remnants largely consist of his father’s superannuated retinue. Not even the old Texas establishment in the person of James A. Baker III, Bush’s father’s field marshal and the former secretary of state (among his many official posts), who managed the Florida contest that gave the presidency to the son, is welcome in this White House.

The Republican Party after Bush, minus its traditional establishment, threatens to become the party of its irreducible base, the party of the old Confederacy and the sparsely populated Rocky Mountain states. But this base, however loyal and obsequious to Bush, regardless of any crisis, does not offer statesmen to step in to handle his shaken White House.

A sharp reversal of policy and turnover in personnel are the only actions that may enable Bush to salvage the shipwreck of his presidency, as they did for Reagan. But bringing in the elders, even if they could be summoned, would be psychologically devastating to Bush, a humiliating admission that his long history of recklessness and failure, from the Texas Air National Guard to Harken Energy, with rescue only through the intervention of his father and his father’s friends, has reached its culmination.

Other presidents, including the aforementioned Reagan and Clinton, have dug themselves out of second-term slumps. But they have done so by taking charge and making changes. Frankly, I don’t think Bush has it in him to do that. I think he is far more likely to retrench and wrap himself even tighter in his comfort blanket of sycophancy. If there are indictments (tomorrow?), it will be interesting to see if he is proactive and asks for resignations, or if he passively allows staff members to figure out their own next steps.

As for the next Supreme Court nominee–Bush’s probably wishing he could clone John Roberts. He may go with someone he thinks would be easily confirmed. Or, he may nominate some drooling paleo-hominid to play to his base, because they’re about the only friends he’s got left. We’ll see.

Not So Wild About Harry

The Washington Post reports that Harriet Miers just withdrew her nomination to the Supreme Court. So much for counting on November 7 hearings to distract the public from Traitorgate indictments.

Of course, if Bush wants a distraction, the next nominee will be somebody really outrageous.

Update: On reflection, would it have been smarter for the White House to hold off on this announcement until ten minutes after any Fitzgerald announcement? I guess that depends on whatever it is that Fitzgerald announces …