Sorry I’ve been scarce. Today is a primary and special election day, so there will be lots to discuss tonight and tomorrow, no doubt. Nate Silver says the numbers somewhat favor Sestak over Specter in Pennsylvania — no tears over that one, although I don’t know much about Sestak — and he’s calling the Lincoln-Halter contest in Arkansas “murky.” Could go either way.
People are going to be reading these elections like tea leaves to get a glimpse into what might happen in November. Nate says the special election in Pennsylvania for John Murtha’s vacated House seat could be an omen, if either candidate wins by 5 points or more. In other words, if the Republican Burns were to win the election by 5 points or more, this might tell us that November is shaping up into a cycle that favors Republicans, and Republicans can expect to make substantial gains in the House and Senate. If the Democrat Crist wins by 5 points or more, it could mean conditions will be similar to 2006 and 2008, cycles that favored Democrats. However, if either one wins by less than 5 points, then the tea leaves aren’t telling us anything useful.
Right now, polls say it’s a nail-biter.
Polls say Rand Son of Ron Paul will coast to an easy victory in the GOP Kentucky Republican primary, and that Son will likely win in November as well.