One poll has Mittens’s lead in South Carolina nose-diving. And see the latest number’s at Nate’s place —
Yesterday, Mittens had a 31.8 vote projection and 55 percent chance of winning. Newt’s vote projection is about the same as yesterday’s, although his chance of winning has gone up. Santorum has slipped a bit lower overnight, so he’s not getting the former Romney votes. It looks as if the votes falling away from Romney are being picked up mostly by Ron Paul, with some votes going to Perry and Huntsman.
Steve Benen has a post up about the impact of the Bain Capital documentary, which is posted below in its entirety:
Letâ€™s also note the target audience. Ed Kilgore noted the video is â€œa heat-seeking missile aimed directly at the white working class id.â€ This is incredibly important in a 2012 context â€” if Romney is going to win the presidency, heâ€™s going to need to crush President Obama with white working-class voters who tend to support the GOP anyway. This short film, with all the subtlety of a sledgehammer, tells this constituency that Romney is not only indifferent to their struggles, but he and people like him caused their economic plight.
So be sure all your bagger friends get a link to the documentary. This is something bigger than just Mittens.
Benjy Sarlin at TPM discusses whether the Bain story coming out this early in the campaign will inoculate voters from caring about it later.
â€œI would have preferred to wait, yes, to keep the bottle of whup-ass fresher,â€ one Obama campaign strategist told TPM. â€œAt the same time â€” and this is important to note â€” having the Republicans eat their own actually makes the Bain story more potent than we ever could because it instantly validates it as a line of attack and falls on independent ears as a matter of legitimate debate, not as a partisan line of attack.â€
And when the real Bain attack comes, it will be anything but old news to the voters it needs to reach. After all, itâ€™s hardcore Republicans who are paying the closest attention to the GOP campaign and its Bain moment right now, and theyâ€™re not voting for President Obama anytime soon. …
… Once Democrats decide its time to make their ultimate Bain push, theyâ€™ll have the resources to flood the zone with TV spots, direct mail (likely referencing Bain layoffs in targeted swing states), and a small army of Democratic lawmakers and operatives reinforcing the story 24/7 on cable news. Think 2004, when the entire GOP apparatus (including, awkwardly, Mitt Romney) worked in unison to drive home the John Kerry â€œflip flopperâ€ meme.
And consider the irony that distribution of this little film is made possible by a SuperPAC; this is what the GOP establishment wanted.
Update: In a new post, Nate Silver is urging caution about reading much into the decline in Romney’s numbers. We’ll get a clearer picture in a couple of days. Romney appears to be gaining in Florida. I postulate, though, that South Carolina television is being plastered with outtakes from the Bain documentary, but Florida television is not.