Waiting for the Blue Shift

What happened last night was pretty much what was predicted by many, but that doesn’t make it any easier. We were told we wouldn’t have a winner on election night, and we didn’t. We were told Trump would claim victory and threaten to use the courts to stop the vote counting. And that’s what happened.

However: I’ve updated my Excel file tallying the Electoral College votes, and by my calculation if Biden wins Arizona, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, he’s got 271 votes. Maine splits its 4 Electoral College votes, and he could lose one and get to 270. And Biden is ahead in all those states right now, although it’s close in some of them.

Yet to be called are Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Trump is leading in those states, but the mail-in votes are still being counted, and those tend to be for Biden (well, except maybe in Alaska). But if we give Trump Alaska, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, he’s still short — 267. He still needs to get one of the states in which Biden is leading. And Trump really needs Pennsylvania to win, or else he has to take Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin, or some other combination of the remaining states in which Biden is leading, which doesn’t seem likely.

The teevee people are saying there won’t be any updates from Nevada until tomorrow. Pennsylvania isn’t going to be counted until the end of the week, I suspect. We may not have to wait for Pennsylvania, however. The rest of the states may be called by the end of the day.

I’m more worried about the Senate. Let’s hope the blue shift comes through for Gideon in Maine, Cunningham in North Carolina, Ossoff in Georgia, and Peters (an incumbent) in Michigan. We need three out of four of those, assuming Biden wins and makes Kamala Harris the tie-breaker. The other Georgia Senate seat will be settled in a January 5 runoff between Democrat Warnock and Republican Loeffler, so if we’re one short there’s still a shot, but I’d hate to wait until January.

So that’s where we are this morning.

Update: Wisconsin is called for Biden; Trump says he will ask for a recount. The Associated Press called Arizona for Biden, so I’m putting Arizona in Biden’s tally. Three of four of Maine’s EC votes are called for Biden; the other vote is still out. Biden just needs Michigan and Nevada, and he’s at 270.

15 thoughts on “Waiting for the Blue Shift

  1. I know I don't post regularly, but I do read daily, and need to say, Maha, that I read you daily, and am profoundly grateful I stumbled on you early (old boards at the Atlantic), and that you exist.

    This post was pretty much exactly what I needed.



  2. I had hoped for a major repudiation of tRUMP and tRUMPism, but instead….

    I feel like taking a selfie on edge of the abyss:

    With one foot over the edge, the other on a banana peel.

  3. Like you, hoping we squeak through this thing. But I echo Paul Waldman The last four years were a test. America failed.

    ..So even if Trump loses, within the Republican Party, Trumpism has been validated. Consider young Madison Cawthorn, just elected to a House seat in North Carolina. Upon learning of his victory, he tweeted a three-word message to the world: “Cry more, lib.”

    This is now the distilled essence of the GOP, a party of elementary school bullies for whom nothing is more important than seeing other Americans suffering and unhappy.

    Republicans do not give each other earnest lectures on how better to persuade Democrats to see their point of view. They do not counsel patience and understanding, telling each other not to condescend or treat liberals’ perspective dismissively. They are the minority party, yet they have no interest in winning more adherents. They want only to deride and degrade those who don’t agree with them, then find ways to suppress their votes.

    Yes, they can’t win a national election and their power is based on exploiting the anti-democratic features of the American system. And yes, the slow tide of demographic change reduces their proportion of the population with each passing year.

    But they’re still about 4 in 10 of us. They spew their rancid bile into the air, then dance joyfully in the toxic cloud while mocking the rest of us for wearing masks to avoid breathing it in.

    If Biden becomes president, as it looks like he will, we can let out a sigh of relief. At least the daily horrors emanating from the Trump administration will cease, and at least we won’t have to care what Trump himself is thinking and tweeting from hour to hour.

    But if you believed Biden when he so often responded to some new misdeed by pleading, “This is not who we are. We’re better than this,” you were wrong. This is who we are. We are not better than this. And we won’t be for a long time to come, if ever.

    • This is not who we are. We’re better than this,” you were wrong. This is who we are. We are not better than this. 

      Indeed, and the sooner Biden and the democrats accept this reality, the better off we all will be.  These people exist for no other reason than to revel in others pain they work to cause and finding new ways to funnel wealth to the 1%.  Saying "we're better than this" in response to their every ugly discretion is like Trump saying, in response to the Charlottesville nazis, that there's good people on both sides.

      No, Joe, assigning good intentions to these people just because you think , down  the road, there may be some way to bring them to the table is a lost cause and sets us back.  Recognize them for who they are and treat them that way, and maybe we can get some things done that will help people who need to be helped.

  4. Maha – It should be noted that your apprehension about Trump doing well early, declaring victory, and the election shifting away (from Trump to Biden) later was spot on. I followed your advice and voted in person, but my opinion then was that we were "fighting the last war" by reacting to 2016 when 2020 was going to be a seismic shift of Trump repudiation.

    I was wrong. 

    The county is FAR more fascist-tending (in the clinical sense of the term, not as an insult) than I believed. Trump will lose but just barely but I had hoped that Trumpism would become fringe, it will stay conservative mainstream.

    I will be out demonstrating for a fair vote count tonight. 

  5. Depriving Trump of his platform – the Presidency – will go some way toward stopping the spread of his sickness to his followers. Better still, is if he must flee the country to avoid prosecution.  This doesn't solve what brought Trump to power, but it diminishes his power to infect others.

    Some days ago, saw a few minutes of a podcast with Marianne Williamson interviewing Carolyn Myss – two spiritual teachers I've learned much from. Myss called Trump "a shapeshifter, a dark magician".

  6. I'm seeing that Wisconsin and Michigan are called for Biden, and the AP called Arizona, so all Biden needs is Nevada. Or any other of the states yet to be called. 

    • I'm hearing that Nevada is going to release more ballot data at 10:30 am.11/5/20. Not sure of the time zone in which the 10:30 release will occur, but indications are that it will put Biden into the White House. Let's hope!

       If that be the case it will be confirmation of the prophetic words of Don Jr.'s moll doll…"The best is yet to come" And Melania will only have one more "fucking Christmas" in the White House to deal with.

  7. In any normal democratic country, Joe Biden won the popular vote by over 3 million people, and is the next POTUS.

    "Only in America…"

  8. Well, I've got to commend Trump for his graciousness in allowing Pence to have one final public bootlicking session before the American people last night when Trump declared victory. Pence performed flawlessly with his tried and true praises for Trump's leadership and ability to Make America Great Again, again.

     I'll be glad to see Pence go.. What a servile bag of shit he is. I hope the only employment he can find after selling his soul to the devil is picking grapes for minimum wage at Eric Trump's vineyard.

  9. I really do not believe that if Trump loses, he will go peacefully.  He will continue to suck his thumb, whine and moan and do his best to rile up his supporters.  Wherever he is, he is still the same person and has not shown any indication that he is amenable to do any changing.  In the Catholic religion, it is believed that six is the age of reason and therefore they believe in early indoctrination.  This makes me wonder what Trump's childhood was like.  Did he not get enough affection or did his parents give in to his tantrums? 

    Prepare for more tweeting, Fox interviews, etc. after he leaves the White House.

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