Watching for the Iceberg

My plans for today are to go vote and then do things utterly unrelated to politics the rest of the day. Like laundry. And I found a recipe for baked parmesan zucchini I plan to try. I also intend to avoid tonight’s election return extravaganza starring Steve Kornacki on MSNBC, which I would normally be glued to. Many of the most critical races won’t be called until tomorrow, or Thursday, or maybe next week. Georgia could go to a runoff. I’ll peek at news on my laptop from time to time to see if there is any indication which way the wind is blowing, but otherwise I’ll probably be streaming a movie. You’re welcome to leave comments here, of course.

In the past three or four days I’ve seen no end of articles about how the polls could be completely wrong, because for multiple reasons it’s much harder to put together genuine representative samplings than it used to be. So anything is possible. I’ve also seen several articles blaming Democrats for screwing up the midterms and offering advice on how they can do better. That seems a tad premature.

Well, good luck to us.

18 thoughts on “Watching for the Iceberg

  1. "I’ve also seen several articles blaming Democrats for screwing up the midterms "

    Monday morning quarterbacks getting their jabs in on Sunday! I don't think the democrats have done anything too terrible, I didn't agree with the student loan forgiveness (IMO, They should have lowered the cap to 75k and required that you actually graduate) but that certainly wouldn't change how I vote. I think the country is misinformed. Our corporate media, they get rich on the fight, they are awash in dark money ad cash so it's in their interest to make one side (the one out of power) look better. There was a time when I almost liked having divided government (I've never voted for a republican but I was ok with a split), but since the GOP has gone completely off the rails I don't want them anywhere near the gavel. Hopefully we can hold the senate!

  2. Baked zucchini is a bi-annual staple.  Easy and quick to prepare and delicious.

    2 zucchini – cut in half lengthwise (or quartered)

    1/4 cup shredded parmesan cheese

    1 tablespoon olive oil

    ground pepper

    Heat oven to 400 degrees.  Line cookie sheet with parchment paper.  Zucchini skin side down on cookie tray.  Sprinkle with cheese.  Drizzle with oil;  sprinkle with pepper.  Bake 15-20 minutes.

    If you are a griller, you can grill the zucchini.


    If we could include jpg files, I would have included one that asks "How much should I spend on a bottle of wine?"  The answer is "About an hour if drinking alone".


  3. I find Kornacki painful to watch.  He's the perfect model for someone who is so invested in the trees, hell the individual branches, that he completely misses the reality that there is a forest.  He's playing with data that is fundamentally flawed and trying desperately to make it mean something.  I pretty much quit watching a lot of MSNBC election coverage because of him.  The other commentators are usually interesting but when they switch to him I switch to cable reruns until he's done.

    • Yeah, Kornacki has been taking over Lawrence O'Donnell's slot on Friday nights, and when Kornacki comes on I race to the teevee to change the channel to Blue Bloods. He's tolerable (but tiring) when covering real election returns, but spending that much time on the polls is absurd.

      • "but spending that much time on the polls is absurd."

        Agreed, the only real purpose of polling (outside of a campaign) is to give the bobbleheads something to talk about.

  4. I do not understand why Kornacki is such a phenomenon. He provides nothing that could not be gained by simple reading. The enthusiasm others find so ingratiating reminds me of a college sophomore who has just discovered existentialism. In short, I cannot find a single reason to watch him.

  5. I'm with you guys on Kornacki.  He's like Brylcream: A little dab'll do me!


    I'll take Kornacki over UpChuck Toad any day

  6. Maybe this is associated with my recent health issues, but I'm not as insanely nervous, even downright terrified, as I usually am on Election Day.*

    Maybe it's because of the SC's vindictive (and self-destructive?) Dobbs decision.

    That, and RepubliKKKLANS have recently been oopenly dancing along, within centimeters of the 3rd rails of politics:  Social Security and Medicare/Medicaid.  "Go ahead.  Make our (election) day!"

    So, I'm not firghtened.

    Worried?  Nervous?  Anxious?  HELL YES!

    Ok my maha mates, let's all think positive thoughts – and keep our fingers crossed!

    *FYI:  No, they didn't give me any "Mother's Little Helpers* – if you get the Stones reference.

    • From a Constitutional point of view, power rests in the Congress which is why even the midterms are important. Usually. If the GOP takes the House there will be a series of ugly shows, possibly including a shutdown. I think there will be an attempt to use threats to pressure the DOJ into granting Trump immunity. I don't see any way it will happen. 

      I'm not sure it's happened before in US history but the judiciary will take center stage in politics. The first act will set the stage – the House demanding that the government acknowledge that Trump is above the law.  It will be that clear and blatant. 

      Trump will be charged, first for the MAL documents, as soon as this year. Flip a coin – either GA or DOJ may charge Trump first for trying to overturn the election. To suggest it will be the biggest trial in US history would still be an understatement. 

      I believe this is where the political pendulum starts to swing away from fascism. This is also the moment when the fascists will use domestic terrorism, (IMO.) Finally, the choice will be clear to low-information voters. I think 2024 is when we'll win by the biggest margins since FDR with the strongest mandate to wipe away the scourge of Trumpism, including expanding the Supreme Court.

      I'm not too anxious about this election, same as you, GULAG. This is the flag dropping for the real race. It's not gonna play out in the election. It will play out in the courts and in the outright explicit demand that one man is above the law. The GOP will be unmasked as lawless and without principle. 

      • Agree 100%.  I've been saying for months now, the republicans taking the House will be an opportunity for democrats and those fighting to save democracy.   The republicans have already telegraphed their intentions — they will focus on revenge and "investigations" while promising to shut down the government over cuts to Social Security and Medicare, programs that even their supporters rely heavily on, when they're not coming up with baseless impeachments of Biden, Garland and who knows who else.  Plus they plan to use congress to beat up on and harass Fauci.  Meanwhile, not only will they have not solved economic issues, they'll have made them worse.  By the time 2024 rolls around the public will have seen them in power and will be so sick of them, as you said, democrats will sweep mightily come 2024.  This will be, as Obama said to Romney in their 2012 debate, a "governor, please proceed" moment.

  7. I haven't heard of any major confrontations between the MAGAts, and "normies."

    Also, no reports of major violence (yet?).  Or I haven't heard any.

    But I'm not complacent.

    It'll get ugly soon enough

  8. Forget everything I just said!

    Too cool for my own good.

    I don't want to jinx anything.

    That, and…

    I'm "un-cooling" faster than a black cat on a hot tin roof.


  9. Republicans did not sweep. My guess: we won't know about the Senate until Dec 8. There's gonna be a runoff. GA turnout was a record. We need to bt the party making appointments to the federal judiciary. 

    Odds are not good to keep the House. IMO, we want a margin as close as possible because if the GOP shuts down government, we break the extortion by peeling off a few votes from Republicans feeling the heat from home over lost services. Trump will be cheerleading FOR the shutdown. Historically, voters aren't happy about gov't not being able to keep the doors open and things running. 

    Trumpists are screaming about fraud. They're seeing some of their favorites defeated and they can't accept the will of the voters. They will try to whip this into violence. This is the month to buy a Kelvar vest. If we hold the Senate in a runoff and Trump is charged the same month, I've gotten what I want for Christmas.

    Pause to consider how the fascist is going to feel. Alex Jones getting plucked time after time in court. Steve Bannon going to prison (with new charges awaiting when he gets out.) Prediction: Rudy is indicted with others in Georgia. (Will Mayor Bug-eyes flip?) Oath Keepers all get convicted some getting near-maximum sentences. Trump is dragged repeatedly into civil trials for his role in promoting the J6 riots. That's before the first Trump criminal trial begins (Early 2024?)

    These people are going to flip out. Trump is going to urge them on. If I've jumped the rails of reality, somebody tell me where my wheels left the track.  

  10. I don't mind Kornacki at all. He's like the elections nerd who has encyclopedic knowledge about a multitude of data points. At various points in the evening, the panelists, for example, Rachel asked him a pop question about some obscure topic and he delivered, not missing a beat. The way to take him is to let him babble but pay attention to the key points you're interested in.

    Last night, for example, he made it clear that control for the House could come down to a number of races in California, that take a long time (weeks) to tally. CA skews leftward, as do late ballots, and so that gave me hope. This is exactly how Katie Porter won in 2018 – she was down a couple points at end of election day, but over the next two weeks pulled ahead and finally defeated her challenger. I couldn't believe it when it happened in 2018, and I never forgot. I checked her numbers this morning, and it's very tight, but the NYT is favoring her, probably due to this same phenomenon.

    I can't recall an election night where I was so thrilled with so many small victories, over and over shouting "YES!!!!" to the television as the picture started to emerge. The caption "DOBBS, DENIALISM, AND DONALD LIFT DEMOCRATS" is apt and genius writing. Someone tweeted, "the beginning of the end of MAGA" – let's hope so.

    Lauren Boebert will be heading back to her trailer park in the Rockies. YES!!!!

    Condolences to those still stuck under right-wing regimes, and who can only appreciate this from afar. I couldn't believe DeSantis' margin of victory over Crist, and it's clear he's going to be the front runner, not Trump, this night helpd settle that.

    It was pouring here in California, washing the red stain into the ocean, and I made this terrific chicken cilantro soup, perfect for this kind of weather.

    I really hope that young people and women can see that hard work pays off, because it sure did last night. This is what it takes to move a mountain. Our victory is modest, not a landslide but it’s an important start.

  11. Off the radar, this one caught me completely by surprise – Colorado Proposition 122: Decriminalize and Regulate Certain Psychedelics – it’s currently ahead, 51% to 49%, with 80% of the vote tallied.

    California legalized pot a couple years after Colorado did, letting them try it out and learn from CO’s experience. “Certain Psychedelics” refers to mushrooms and god-knows-what, but I’m all for anything that helps people expand their minds and their lives. It’s extremely interesting that certain right-wingers are especially behind this. see Lucy in the Sky with Nazis

  12. Republicans manipulated perceptions as well as they could.  It was to be a sweep.  Ergo, as no one likes to back a looser, perception would become reality.

    It did not.

    I would like to think that enough people are understanding that an illusion is not reality, and republicans are into illusion.

    It is probably not a coincidence that crypto currency is having a giant meltdown.  Many lost much money on that illusion.  They got an expensive education.  For a period of time, they got the perception of wealth.  Most of them now found out that blind optimism and greed should trigger the thought:  If it looks too good to be true IT PROBABLY IS.  That is a tough one to learn from the school of hard knocks.  It is worse for those that don't learn.  I knew a republican who to his dying day never learned that he was addicted to Ponzi schemes.  He never found a chain letter he didn't like.  It kept him crushing aluminum cans through his golden years.  An absolute moron to the educational techniques of the school of hard knocks.  Not all republicans are like that for sure.  Otherwise, Kansas would have elected a Brownback clone for governor.  It was close though.  By the skin of our teeth, we survive.

    One day I will explain avoidance conditioning and differences in ability to learn from it in some individuals.  Then again, I may just continue to avoid it.


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