Republicans: This Isn’t Working

There is new polling out that suggests the Ron DeSantis presidential bubble really has burst. Considering that Ron’s entire argument for his candidacy was that he is electable and could appeal to both suburban Republicans and the MAGA base, I don’t see him coming back.

From the CNN article linked: “DeSantis, at the moment, is not building a base. He’s dividing Republicans and allowing Trump to claim an electability mantle. The general electorate remains opposed to a six-week abortion ban and his position on Disney.” IMO Ron’s decision to run as an anti-Woke culture warrior was a huge mistake on his part.

At Lawyers, Guns and Money, Paul Campos writes about the coming “event horizon.”

Two things have become extremely clear over the past few weeks:

(1) Donald Trump is facing several forms of serious legal jeopardy, both criminal and civil; and

(2) Short of what is statistically a highly unlikely health-related event of some sort, he is going to be the Republican nominee for president next year.

Indeed, as this analysis makes clear, as his legal woes mount, his grip on the nomination becomes stronger — and not despite the former circumstance, but as a direct consequence of it: …

It’s probable Trump will lose at least some of the cases stacked against him. He may very well be running next year not only under indictment but having been convicted of something. He’s not going to drop out unless he drops dead. Paul Campos continues,

As to how this country is going to negotiate a situation in which a man facing multiple criminal indictments, as well as civil judgments for things like violently raping a woman in a department store dressing room, is also simultaneously the presidential candidate of one of the only two political parties of any consequence in this nation, your guess is very much as good as mine.

This is completely uncharted territory, and nothing illustrates that better than the fact that this utterly bizarre and disturbing situation has for all practical purposes already been essentially normalized by the political media in particular and the broader cultural discourse in general.

This is the way we live today; how we will be living in 2025 and beyond is not something I can see clearly now.

I can’t argue.

15 thoughts on “Republicans: This Isn’t Working

  1. Trump will be in enough serious trouble, and will be unpopular with enough of the electorate, that he'll never win the general election. This will cause a big fight within the GOP, such that nobody knows at this point who their nominee will be – will they run Trump anyway, or will someone else muscle him out?

    After putting up a token fight over testifying, Pence spent 7 hours talking to Jack Smith's team. Pence needs to get Trump out of the way in his run for GOP nominee, and Jack is going to help.

    The next couple weeks are going to be exciting, because the E Jean Carroll case – unlike all the other investigations/indictments – is expected to wrap soon. "Convicted rapist" could be the first thing that significantly damages Trump's standing, the first crack in his armor.

    • He won't be a "convicted" rapist. He may be found responsible for rape by a civil jury. And that will have much more impact, I think, than  Republicans realize.

      BTW, be careful with your words. Calling someone a convicted felon, when they are not is, in most jurisdictions, libel per se, and cause you  no end of trouble.  

  2. The possible great white hope for the respectable, sensible, non-criminal, un-bigoted wing of republican party flamed out. We now brace against a giant sucking source unimagined by even the likes of Ross Perot. Bidon is correct.  The soul* of our country is in peril.  Brace yourself and seek stability.

    * Note: soul is a metaphysical term.  










    • Your invocation of Perot's name brought to mind a sickening thought. No Labels is supposedly planning a 3rd-party run. No Labels is backed by conservative fat cats, including Justice Thomas' buddy.

      So as things evolve in the court cases (assuming Trump gets the GOP nomination) will the money flow to the No Labels guy in a bid to split the electoral vote three ways to prevent Biden with a plurality from getting to the magic number of 270 electoral votes, throwing the election into the US House of Representatives. 

      Perrot got zero electoral college votes, so I have doubts that the strategy would work. But they may pump a lot of money into a try. 

      • Interesting angle, but very risky for the GOP Big Money.  IMO, their top priority is to sideline Trump without alienating his Mob.  If the Presidential (s)election goes into the House, it could shatter the GOP by forcing Reps to choose sides.

        Funding No Labels might indicate that they are willing to risk another Biden term, knowing that their Federalist Hacks on the SC can (and will) block any real threats to their precious Tax Cuts.  The two oldest SC Justices are Thomas (74) and Alito (73), so there's some risk of losing their majority by 2028, when they might expect to sweep back into power.  (Gridlock favors the GOP because Democrats need to prove they can fix things to win in 2028, and they may relish the prospect of running against Kamala Harris).

        OTOH, the GOP Big Money may be willing to accept another Trump term, if he agrees to be a Reaganesque figurehead (leaving actual policy to the Party cabal).  Trump may be willing to do that this time (in 2027, he insisted on *personal* loyalty from all new appointees, which created chaos in many Federal bureaucracies).

        • The tax cuts are automatically toast.  Bills passed by reconciliation sunset after ten years. The GOP has to hold the House in '24 (unlikely) Take the Senate (doable) and take the WH. (A long shot.) You're right to bring it up. Tax cuts are uppermost in the minds of the donor class of the GOP.  

        • Trump will never, and I mean never, agree to be a figurehead for anyone.

          The whole point of another run for him is power, money and retribution.

  3. I'm reading that the next charge may be wire fraud related to raising $250 million by claiming election fraud and claiming Trump was going to fight that fraud. The slush fund was never spent proving fraud, it wasn't used in filing cases disputing the election. It's being spent in part on Trump's legal bills, from what I understand. 

    This might be a brilliant first move by Jack Smith at the federal level. Smith has the opportunity and legal obligation to prove there was no massive voter fraud. Trump has to defend with facts admissible to the court that there WAS. And if there's anything, Trump has to explain why he never spent a dime on the dispute. 

    There's evidence that Trump commissioned not one, but two companies to research the "election fraud" after his November loss. BOTH companies came back with written conclusions there was no evidence of significant fraud. SO while Trump was collecting money to "fight", Trump knew and wasn't telling that he had other plans for the money. The spending will illustrate that. 

    If Smith goes there first, it will go to trial first. I'm not sure if Jack Smith can put a "hold" on that money. If he's able to prove fraud, Trump will have to forefeit the money and Trump will try to move everything out so that if/when Smith wins, there's nothing there. (In the NY civil case, the prosecutor blocked Trump from restructuring out of state.) If he files, and long before it goes to court, Trump may find a federal lock on his favorite piggy bank. In the summer, the NY civil case may make Trump liable for $250 million more.

    Trump is a billionaire in truth, in assets that he owns. It's not in cash in the bank. (If it was, Trump would not have to borrow cash from banks, but he does.) We're talking about a half-billion there this year!  Don't forget the rape trial is a civil suit – Trump will have to pay damages. As of March this year, DOJ argued that the civil suits against Trump filed by members of Congress and DC cops should go forward. 

    The two federal criminal cases most likely to drop are wire fraud (raising money) and obstruction (related to MAL documents.)  They may be filed separately because they are unrelated. GA will drop this summer, criminal, and completely unrelated to NY or either of the (speculative) federal cases. I admit I'm biased, but both of the federal cases look stronger than the NY criminal case. I don't know what Willis has in GA – she's not showing any cards.

    How does Trump escape jail in all three jurisdictions? Figure the trials begin a year out from charges, How did Trump avoid military service during Viet Nam? Trump's not gonna roll over when charged. He has/is threatening the prosecutor(s) the judge, and witnesses, As the cases build, I do not think Trump's MO will change. But after dancing on the edge of being jailed for contempt (where Trump was last week in the rape case) I don't think a restricted, extended, vacation in MAL is gonna happen. 

    So I think it's likely Trump will start to document health problems that would make a jail term inhuman punishment. My opinion, but Trump's gonna act like a Mafia Don and hope for violence against the court sufficient to make them drop the case. But if the jury returns a guilty verdict in a criminal case, even one case, Trump will announce serious health issues. The NY case will hit the jury early next year. 

    Trump doesn't excel in strategy but he's as sneaky as Smeagol. Either Trump is laying out plans to retire overseas where there is no extradition OR he's laying out health issues to prevent incarceration. Any health problems that will work for the court should help disqualify Trump in the election. 


  4. "statistically a highly unlikely health-related event"

    In a morbidly obese man who takes no exercise, has had a terrible diet for all his adult life, and has already had COVID? He's already got heart disease (is on statins). He's a perfect candidate for any number of cancer types, diabetes II, stroke, heart attack, and – with his family history – dementia.

    Don't forget the kinds of doctors he uses and the kind of medical advice he follows, too.

    Current average adult male life expectancy in the USA is only 75 years

    Placing an even money bet on him being dead before he can attempt to be elected would not exactly be throwing your money away. There are far better odds of that happening than Biden checking out before the end of 2024.

  5. I've been thinking about things – which always has dangerous implications, since I'm basically an imbecile – and the main conclusion I've concluded, is that Donald John tRUMP is the very WORST American.

    Like, EVER!!!

    Who has done more damage to America, America's interests, and Americans, than Donald John tRUMP?!?

    Ol' Benedict Arnold? 


    Please…  He was a piker compared to tRUMP!

    The "Treasonous-traitor Twins:  Jeff Davis and Bobby Lee?"

    Getting warmer!…

    But still, imo, basically:  Amateurs!

    Of course, in the midst of our current "Cold Civil War," our modern KKKonfederates will say that Abraham Lincoln might wear THAT throne!  Oy…

    But back to some serious seriousness, with considerable seriousity.

    I wanna hear from all o' youz in our Peanut Gallery:

    Who, in your opinion, is the WORST American ever?*

    *Not including Walter O'Malley, I should add.

  6. Oh, and btw:

    In case you were leaning towards these three, I think we can put Nixon, George W. "Baby Doc" Bush, and Dick Cheney, in the "Pikers" category – don't you?

    • Naw, Nixon, Bush and Cheney all have way more blood on their hands than Trump at this point… as long as he's not reelected. If he is reelected a large contributing factor will be all the people who continue to say, for some reason, that he can't possibly be reelected, that it defies all reason, logic and probability. If he gets in office though I'm sure he'll pump those rookie numbers up.  

      • I agree.  For all his wanna-be-Mafia-Don bluster, Trump actually doesn't have the balls to order murders, much less anything like our bombing campaigns in Vietnam or Iraq.

  7. @gulag – "who is the worst" is a hard question to answer because there is lots of evil going on that's invisible, behind the scenes. It's easy to single out Trump because he's the surface of it. But he has rich backers who got behind him, so they could get their way in the halls of power. The Republican MO, since Reagan, is to install a PR guy to fool the rubes while the rich backers rob them blind.

    Given this line of thinking, the Koch brothers certainly would be in the running.


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