I hope everyone had a lovely holiday. And now, back to work.
The Trump Administration certainly had a busy holiday. First we had a big Christmas Eve Epstein files document announcement. More than one million files they previously didn’t know about have somehow turned up! Somebody must have stacked them in a back hall under the old pizza boxes. My goodness, what a surprise. And after Trump’s girl Pam kept saying the DoJ had done an “exhaustive review” of everything Epstein and there was nothing in the files worth releasing. It’s going to take them a while to review all that, of course.
And then on Christmas Day Trump bombed Nigeria. Why did Trump bomb Nigeria? To please his White evangelical supporters, basically. White evangelicals in the U.S. have been yammering that Nigerian Christians were being “targeted” for death. There was talk of a Nigerian Christian genocide. So Trump dropped a bunch of bombs on Nigeria, I take it. And the evangelicals were pleased.
I’ve been watching this for a while. There has been a lot of terrorist violence in Nigeria. Some of the people killed by terrorists are Christians. Some of them are not. According to Pew, Nigeria is 56 percent Muslim and 43 percent Christian. Maybe. I’ve seen different figures elsewhere. Terrorist groups in Nigeria include West African ISIS, Boko Haram, and Ansaru, These are all Muslim organizations. But there are also a whole lot of criminal gangs in operation, and I take it the authorities aren’t always sure if particular incidents of violence are terrorist-related or gang-related. Nigeria is the world’s sixth-most populous country. It has more than 250 ethnic groups, with varying languages and customs. Who knows who is targeting whom?
Ironically, the strike was fully supported by the Muslim president of Nigeria, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and coordinated with the federal military. Nigeria’s Daily Post is more positive about the operation than most US newspapers. It says that US naval vessels in the Gulf of Guinea launched 16 guided MQ-9 Reaper missiles at “two major Islamic State ISIS terrorist enclaves located within the Bauni Forest axis of Tangaza Local Government Area, Sokoto State.”
So Trump’s attempt to configure the action as a Christian strike in defense of Christians (for his Evangelical base) is a stretch. He seems actually to have worked hand in glove with Tinibu and the Nigerian Muslim elite to hit a mutual problem. Although parts of Nigeria, especially the northeast, are poor and conflict-ridden, there is no evidence that Christians suffer worse from this violence than Muslims — people from both communities have been kidnapped, brutalized, and killed by forces such as Boko Haram.
That’s what I’m seeing from other sources. Whatever is going on in Nigeria is not a simple Muslims-versus-Christians dichotomy. It’s more complicated. Never mind that Trump had no authorization whatsoever to bomb Nigeria. Nothing happening there threatens the United States. He just did this to score points with the White evangelicals. Who are less than 15 percent of the U.S. population, btw. See also Breaking down U.S. strikes on ISIS in Nigeria and the complicated conflict there at PBS.
Also, Trump has decided that since “affordability” is a fake word, or something, the midterms will be about “pricing.” I don’t think that’s going to help him much.
You’ve probably also heard that the MAGA movement is fracturing. There was a particularly good analysis of the current state of MAGA at the New York Times — The Strange Death of Make America Great Again by Matthew Walther. It’s good enough that I’m burning my last gift link for the month. Walther proposes that “Coalitions organized around symbolic enmities and ideological absolutes rather than shared material interests are prone to sudden collapse.”
… MAGA’s internal contradictions can no longer be ignored. The movement that had promised an end to foreign adventurism has found itself torn between an alliance of ideological noninterventionists and realists and a hawkish national security establishment. Trumpism promised a revival of domestic manufacturing, yet neither the president nor his advisers have decided whether this means tariffs, industrial policy, reviving organized labor, environmental deregulation or mere nostalgia. MAGA also promised immigration reform but has oscillated between showboating deportations and a deference to pro-visa allies in Big Tech and corporate agriculture. At the same time, American support for Israel has become a contested issue on the right for the first time in decades. Some opponents have been accused of antisemitism; others simply announce it. …
… This problem extends to Mr. Trump himself. No postwar political movement has been more closely bound up in the fortunes of its founder than MAGA is. Yet during the recent controversies, Mr. Trump’s own views have been neither heeded nor even earnestly solicited. Slowly, almost imperceptibly, he has begun to recede from the movement he created.
Is MAGA sustainable without Trump? MAGA was never a serious political movement. It is more of social/cultural phenomenon, a movement of people estranged from multiculturalism, liberal values, and the 21st century in general. .
MAGA’s internal culture has always rewarded theatrical confrontation over achievement. Boorishness commands attention, and boors mistake attention for leverage. Pseudo-martyrdom becomes an end in itself. Loyalty tests proliferate. Those who counsel de-escalation find themselves subject to denunciation; prudential disagreement is allowed to provide cover for rank bigotry. Partisans celebrate one another for exacerbating tensions even when exacerbation forecloses coalition building.
There is also a related problem: The Trumpist movement has generated a lunatic array of semiautonomous online subcultures that are largely indifferent to strategic considerations and immune from political consequences while still exercising influence over actors whose decisions are not so immune.
Without a strong personality to rally around, to tell them who to hate this week, they have no direction. And Trump is fading. Had he lived, maybe Charlie Kirk could have been the new MAGA Daddy for at least part of the movement. But I don’t see J.D. Vance or Tucker Carlson or Ben Shapiro or Nick Fuentes or any other semi-leaders of MAGA turning into The One. More likely MAGA, whatever it is, will just fracture. Even Jim Geraghty, a long-time Trump apologist who writes for the Washington Post, called the recent Turning Point conference A conference of clowns; “Wrestlemania with podcasters.”
See also Cracks have emerged in the Maga coalition by Moira Donegan at The Guardian.
"yammering that Nigerian Christians were being “targeted” for death" just wait until diaper don finds out those Nigerian Christians ain't white! Whiskey Pete is gonna have some splaining to do!
Interesting! I agree that MAGA is trying to look the other way on explicit anti-Semitism, explicit pro-Nazi groups, explicit Islamophobia, and policies that are explicit violations of every phrase of the First Amendment. Normally the 'big tent' philosophy will hold a group together. Maybe not this time.
Fascism is built around a single person who is the embodiment of the movement. "The Apprentice" was a TV show built around the fraud that Trump was somehow a financial genius. But millions who can't read above a sixth-grade level thought they were seeing an American messiah when they tuned in. Trump announced his racism by trying to unseat and antagonize President Obama. They didn't need anything more.
Trump is losing his marbles. He looks weak He's incoherent much of the time – other times, he's falling asleep in public venues. The smell of blood is in the water – I predict he won't last three years. Trump is surrounded by ambitious wannabees. Vance, Rubio, Kennedy, MTG?, Noem…. who else? I predict we will see leaks about Trump's failing health and mental stability. Inside leaks, from people close enough to know.
The goal is to be the one to inherit the Throne. They know Trump won't abdicate and trusts no one. Trump has to a) die or b) be hospitalized or c) go to prison. (And C is why Trump will not abdicate. They know it and they aren't gonna wait for A.) So look for leaks from the GOP that wll take Trump out of contention LONG before 2028.
This is whenwhere/how MAGA disintegrates. A large anti-woke block will continue, but they won't unify, even after the primaries determine a 'winner.' I think it likely Trump will run against the MAGA winner because Trump is running from jail. Some of the old die-hrds will stick with Trump, which will doom the GOP candidate.
The main question is whether the Democratic voters will reject the temptation to (for example) reject a corporate sellout like Newsome and embrace a fully woke progressive who can utter the three words the DNC hears only in nightmares – "tax the rich."
Democrats run a progressive? I heard a saying a long, long time ago that said "Democrats would rather lose to a Republican than allow a Progressive to win"…and, from my observations since I heard it, it's absolutely true. For proof, see 2016.
The nominee will be decided by the primary elections held by the states. The DNC weighs in for the establishment candidate as hard as they can but it's the VOTERS who get the credit or blame for the candidate we get. I have utter contempt for HRC but I voted for her in the General in 2016. Many people could not go that far. So we have a majority fascist USSC,
…and 2020, and 2024.
"MAGA is trying to look the other way on explicit anti-Semitism"
It seems to me that "anti-Semitism" has been redefined by the magats, many on the right, some on the left and many American Jews to mean pro-Palestinian. If you point out the Israeli genocide in Gaza or the brutal land grab (endorsed by the Israeli population) taking place in the occupied territories then you are an anti-Semite! The old anti-semitism (where hate is directed specifically at Jews for being Jewish) still exists of course but it has become and uncomfortable subject for MAGA, the GOP and many American Jews who support them, it's much easier to coalesce around the new "pro-Palestinian" definition.
It's not the Magats who are "redefining" 'Anti-Semitism' to smear anybody who says anything against infinite US support for Israel; it's Zionists (and actually it isn't new at all).
In case you hadn't noticed, BOTH major Parties are fighting internal wars over Israel policy.
This tension has been simmering in the Democratic Party for a decade or two, but Israel's actions in Gaza cranked the heat up to Boiling. IMO, this was a major factor in Harris' loss.
Historically, Democrats were far more supportive of Israel than Republicans (see: ""Truman Recognizes Israel" vs "Eisenhower Ends Suez Crisis"). That changed with Reagan ('Iran-Contra' was really 'Iran-Israel-Contra'). Bush Sr and his SecState James Baker were more even-handed; Baker actually barred Netanyahu from the State Dept HQ!
Through this same time-frame, the 'Religious Right' de-emphasized its historical anti-Semitism (don'chya know, "Tha Jews killed Jesus"), and became reliable supporters of Israel, in spite of its treatment of Palestinian Christians. I suspect that Israel & AIPAC 'helped' by funding top preachers' visits to Israel (including honeypots?), but I have no proof of this.
A strong majority of US Jews still vote reliably Democratic, but the GOP has peeled away a large chunk of Jewish Big Donors (see: Adelson, and plenty others). These Zionist Zillionaires support GOP anti-tax policies (for obvious reason$), and have come to support other truly regressive policies (in contrast to the true, deep Liberalism of most American Jews). Some of that is self-serving (Free Speech in US is viewed as dangerous to Israel), and some of that is prolly for show, to ensure GOP support for Israel.
I suspect that AIPAC decided decades ago that American Authoritarians would be more reliable supporters of Israel than the unruly Progressives. That's certainly how things have turned out, until very recently.
The White Christian Nationalist strain of MAGA has always been [truly] Anti-Semitic (yet agnostic toward Israel), but that was mostly kept under wraps until recently. Something about the killing of Charlie Kirk seems to have lit a spark there, and now it's an open fight.
I'm fine with that – "let's you and him fight", and "A pox on both your houses".
On the Progressive side, I'm deeply saddened by the increasing heat. Zionists don't seem to recognize that branding people who disagree with their support of Israel "Anti-Semites" actually encourages Real Anti-Semitism.
Bonus irony: people who care about Palestinians are branded 'Anti-Semitic', even though (most) Palestinian are Arabs, and Arabs are Semites…
But I don’t see J.D. Vance or Tucker Carlson or Ben Shapiro or Nick Fuentes or any other semi-leaders of MAGA turning into The One. More likely MAGA, whatever it is, will just fracture.
It wasn't that long ago when Barron was just a little kid, and all the liberal blog people were saying "Leave him alone! He probably hates trump more than we do, he may end up being a resistance hero!"
And now he's all grown up and best buddies with the andrew tate crowd. I hope MAGA doesn't crown him the successor to his father when the old man passes. (I don't have similar worries about eric or don jr.)
Yeah, the thing about Barron is that he doesn't need to wear elevator shoes like his dad does. And the wingnuts like them some tall men.
Barron Trump wouldn't be eligible (old enough) to run for President until 2044 – if we're still holding elections then. Also, I find it hard to imagine that he would want to follow in the path of his 'father'. Donald Trump is probably just as bad at parenting as his father was, but Barron will be left with different psychological scars, different resentments, and different motivations.
Also, the times will be different – indeed, they already are. Trump's erratic policies – on top of the GOP's continuation of Voodoo Economics – are accelerating the decline of the USA. Our economy is now so top-heavy that a Crash is inevitable, likely soon, certainly by 2028.
I'm guessing that Barron will have the good sense to take whatever $B he inherits and slink off to some island. Little Saint James, maybe…
Barron Trump wouldn't be eligible (old enough) to run for President until 2044
Good. I'm old, I should be safely dead by then.
Well, my comment about Barron was just me taking an opportunity to make fun of the orangutan. And this, only about 1/4 seriously: Don't they plan to establish that the silly constitution is just an outdated quaint document we don't need to follow? (Unless we want to use part of it to justify our crimes.)
Yeah, the "Republican" Party has veered pretty far from the idea of a "Republic" (country of Laws). But the 6 Republicans on the SC are all Federalist Society apparatchiks, not Magats; they will make sure that we can't tax the Rich, but they will stick to the Constitution when it suits their [Donors] interests.
Tiz the season for analogies, Christmas: diabetics :: Independence Day: _________.
It is so good when it is over.
I noted a suspicious inset in the Wikipedia article about Nigeria. It was added in August to the section on environmental issues this year suggesting the content was in serious need of editing.
Never before have I seen the criticism that the article contained "hallucinated information" a charge that would be quite the challenge to verify. No support was given for the outrageous claim lending to more suspicion of the origin of the inset.
The section when I read it did not seem to warrant the hostile and hateful tone of the inset. One wonders from whence the fireworks came?
Environmental conditions in Nigeria as depicted in the section are seriously problematic even including sanitation issues. One would hesitate to suggest a dog live there (hint, hint).
I suppose someone wanted that section SUGAR coated.
Interesting, never seen that kind of warning before in Wiki, but I suspect that we'll see a *lot* that soon.
I read that as a warning that the contributor[s] who wrote that section may have used AI (Large Language Model = LLM), and I'm quite glad to see such warnings. I go to Wiki for info collated by Humans, and I *really* don't want it contaminated by AI slop.
Sure, Humans can (and do) infect Wiki with their personal agendas, but I can account for that kind of distortion when reading it (or see read the Food Fight ['Talk'] section). AI distorts info more subtly and randomly, so I can't tell what's real and what's 'hallucinated'.
Everybody please keep talking. I've been feeling under the weather for the last couple of days and just couldn't work up the momentum to write something. Maybe tomorrow.
I hope you don't have what I have. I've been sick for 10 days, horrible cold, chest congestion, headaches, not fun. I tested neg for covid so I guess just a really bad cold?
Whatever I had is not nearly that serious. I hope you're feeling better.
Wishing a swift rebound for the New Year.
Relevant to topic is a Gessen piece in the NYT. It inspired this comment as our country seems to have begun to dabble in the dark side.
Credit BG for this comment on quite an article.
Opinion | Can a Corporation Be Complicit in War Crimes? Sweden Is Trying to Find Out. – The New York Times
I'm just tossing something out for consideration. It's reported that GDP for the last quarter grew by a "surprising" 4.3%. I'm not saying the numbers are false but I'm questioning if they are true. Trump has a way of denying numbers as "fake" that are unflattering. His administration has, on occasion, stopped reporting numbers that would reflect a loss in jobs. Trump has advocated, for example, we stop testing, during Covid to improve statisticsm which totally ingonres the reality of how many are infected and dying.
Nobody is asking WHERE the huge jump in output came from. Today, there's a report that corporate bankruptcies hit a record high for this century. If the numbers are true, I'm fine with validating them publicly but if there's a pushback by the administration to an inquiry about the arithmatic, we need to call aput the administration for outright fraud.
Are you objecting to the way and degree governmental data is being DE objectified? Save your powder. The war has just begun. Wait till the great recession hits and the numbers are showing a great economic boom. You may not need to wait long.
uncledad: Have you been checked for pneumonia? If not, please do so, or at least call your PCP, if you haven't already!