Nobody knows Trump’s post-Maduro plan for Venezuela. There doesn’t seem to be one, beyond a vague notion that U.S. oil companies will take over oil production and the government of Venezuela had better cooperate. Paul Krugman:

Two days after the abduction, it’s clear that Trump wasn’t seeking regime change, at least not in any fundamental way. He’s more like a mob boss trying to expand his territory, believing that if he knocks off a rival boss he can bully the guy’s former capos into giving him a cut of their take.

Maduro may be in custody in New York, but his allies are still in power in Caracas. Trump would rather work with them than with the Maduro opposition in Venezuela.

“It’d be very tough for her to be the leader,” Trump said when asked about Machado on Saturday, adding that she“doesn’t have the support or the respect within the country.” …

…Two people close to the White House said the president’s lack of interest in boosting Machado, despite her recent efforts to flatter Trump, stemmed from her decision to accept the Nobel Peace Prize, an award the president has openly coveted.

Although Machado ultimately said she was dedicating the award to Trump, her acceptance of the prize was an “ultimate sin,” said one of the people.

“If she had turned it down and said, ‘I can’t accept it because it’s Donald Trump’s,’ she’d be the president of Venezuela today,” this person said.

Do note skepticism of this story. It’s more likely Trump is not likely to cede control of anything once he gets his little hands on it. Trump sees himself as the new capo di tutti capi of Venezuela and expects the lieutenants of the former capo to answer to him. That really does seem to be the plan. Trump lieutenant Marco Rubio is saying he’s not going to go into Caracas and try to actually run things, but instead will “coerce” the government to take direction from Trump.

The secretary of state suggested the U.S. would continue to maintain a blockade on sanctioned oil shipments from Venezuela and use that as leverage to seek concessions from the government. Rubio said this is “sort of control the president is pointing to” and the oil “quarantine” gives the U.S. a “tremendous amount of leverage that will continue to be in place until we see changes.”

I’m grateful, at least, there are no U.S. troops in Venezuela putting their lives at risk for this stunt. Let’s hope that continues.

Yesterday I wrote about the oil issue and why U.S. oil companies are possibly not as eager to go into Venezuela as Trump assumes. I see that Reuters and some other news outlets are reporting that U.S. oil execs are saying Trump did not consult with them before nabbing Maduro. All of these outlets are behind a paywall so I can’t see the details.  Yesterday I cited a Politico story saying that the oil execs had been tipped off something in Venezuela was about to happen. In Trump’s mind, maybe that was “consulting.”

On the other hand, Judd Legum at Popular Information writes that ousting Maduro was a big help to one of Trump’s biggest donors, Paul Singer.

In November 2025, Singer acquired Citgo, the U.S.-based subsidiary of Venezuela’s state-run oil company. Singer, through his private investment firm, Elliott Investment Management, bought Citgo for $5.9 billion. The sale to Amber Energy, a subsidiary of Elliott Investment Management, was forced by creditors of Venezuela after the country defaulted on its bond payments.

Citgo owns three major refineries on the Gulf Coast, 43 oil terminals, and a network of over 4,000 independently owned gas stations. By all accounts, Singer acquired these assets at a major discount. Advisors to the court that oversaw the sale valued Citgo at $13 billion, while Venezuelan officials said the assets were worth as much as $18 billion.

Singer acquired Citgo at a bargain price in large part due to the embargo, with limited exceptions, on Venezuela oil imports to the United States. Citgo’s refiners are purpose-built to process heavy-grade Venezuelan “sour” crude. As a result, Citgo was forced to source oil from more expensive sources in Canada and Colombia. (Oil produced in the United States is generally light-grade.) This made Citgo’s operations far less profitable.

Elliott Investment Management is known as a “vulture” fund because it specializes in buying distressed assets at rock bottom prices.

Muduro’s government was also seeking to appeal court approval of Singer’s bid for Citgo. Now that Maduro has been ousted, however, it seems unlikely that the appeal will continue.

Singer no doubt has Trump’s ear; they may even have done some “consulting.” As for the rest of the U.S. oil industry, this is Paul Krugman —

But you know who doesn’t think there’s a lot of money to be made in Venezuela? Oil companies. They see a dilapidated infrastructure that would cost billions to repair. They don’t see a stable political environment above ground. And while Venezuela has large oil reserves, much of its oil is “extra heavy, making it polluting and expensive to process.”

Trump is supposed to meet with oil execs soon at some not-yet-specified time. That may not go well.

In the meantime, I am not going to predict what may happen in Venezuela over the next few months.