Trump appears to be very pleased with himself over his Venezuela adventure, meaning he hasn’t yet grasped what a mess he gotten himself (and us) into. I found this at Axios this morning:
President Trump said Monday the U.S. may subsidize oil companies’ efforts to rebuild Venezuela’s energy infrastructure in a project he estimated could take less than 18 months. …
…The president argued that having access to Venezuela’s oil would allow supply to flow more freely, bringing prices down in the U.S.
Trump has claimed Venezuelan officials stole U.S. oil assets when the country nationalized the industry, though experts say the situation is complex.
He has said the U.S. would restore Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and compensate American companies that lost out in the seizures.
Trump always underestimates how complicated the world is and how difficult fixing a problem will be. Everything I’m reading says that getting Venezuela’s infrastructure up to speed will take “years,” or “several years,” or possibly “a decade.” And the cost will be massive. (See Rebuilding Venezuelan oilfields won’t be easy or cheap, analysts say, by Ben German at Axios.) Trump’s story about how the oil companies might be reimbursed keeps changing. Oil companies lost billions of dollars when Venezuela nationalized its oil industry and sent the oil companies packing. Trump sometimes makes noises about the U.S. reimbursing them for that loss, which makes no sense to me. Or sometimes he talks about compensating them for rebuilding the infrastructure now. There’s every reason to fear this project could take a big hit on U.S. taxpayers.
But there’s currently something of an oil glut that’s expected to continue for a while. Even if the Venezuelan oil industry could be optimized in a few, or several, years, will there be a market for the oil then? At a price that would make the investment worthwhile? And will Venezuela benefit from any of this? See Trump says he’ll unleash Venezuela’s oil. But who wants it? at Grist.
Paul Waldman writes that Trump’s Venezuela adventure is already a propaganda disaster. Nobody speaking for the Trump Administration seems to be on the same message regarding Venezuela. For that matter, Trump himself seems to change the story by the hour. Beyond his general notion that U.S. oil companies will get Venezuela’s oil production up to speed, there are countless details up in the air about how that’s going to happen. And who is really running Venezuela? One minute Trump says he is; another minute the existing government is still in charge but will be coerced into meeting U.S. expectations, somehow. Waldman writes,
Nevertheless, the incoherence of the Trump administration’s communication suggests that what happens next in Venezuela will be an unfolding series of screwups. If these clowns can’t even get the American public to support a war, do we really think they’ll be able to manage an infinitely more difficult task of nation-building?
Assuming they are planning any nation-building, of course. I’m not sure they are.
See also Greg Sargent, Trump Blurts Out Dark Truth About Venezuela Plan—and About MAGA Voters.
… note that most analysis of Trump’s plans for Venezuela has proceeded on two tracks. One of them, as Seva Gunitsky explains, posits that Trump envisions a “tripartite” division of the world, in which the U.S., Russia, and China all bless one another’s domination of their respective regions in a “hegemonic carve-up.” The other sees Trump’s action through the prism of domestic corruption: He’s turning Venezuela over to American oil companies and executives, some of whom bankrolled his reelection.
We need to put those two pieces together. Trump appears to envision something like a “hegemonic carve-up” that also gives regional MAGA-friendly oligarchies a major stake in our “share” of that tripartite division’s spoils. This is already the Putin model: authoritarian rule that enables smash-and-grab oligarchy by those in the regime’s good favor. Trump is making it unusually explicit that in this sphere of influence, Trump-approved oligarchs will be enriched by our regional spoils.
“Baked into Trump’s views on these so-called spheres-of-influence are opportunities to enrich himself, his inner circle, his donors, and his fellow oligarchs,” Casey Michel, a New Republic contributor and author of the forthcoming book United States of Oligarchy, tells me. “Putin envisions a world in which a small group of imperialists loot their portions of the globe as they see fit. Trump has been envious of this model for a long time. He’s implementing it himself in the Western hemisphere.”
Trump is boasting about taking on Cuba or Colombia or Mexico or Greenland next. Congress absolutely must re-assert itself to shut him down. But will they?
The "Donroe Doctrine" isn't complicated or subtle. In fact, it's only one word longer than its title. "Might makes Right."
Re Venezuela and elections, Trump won't get involved as long as the country gives Don everything he wants when he wants it. Exageration? Whenever Trump has talked about boots on the ground in V. it's been US troops stationed to protect the oil fields. When Don has talked about rebuilding infrastructure, its the OIL infrastructure we'd be investing in. I don't think there's any consideration of a government or economy in Venezuela, except a military capable of suppressing food riots if there's any chance the disorder will spill over into the oil fields. It's rape and plunder, Don's specialties.
Maha asked if Congress will do anything. Not likely. But there may be action. Consider the hemogony. Left alone, over the next few decades, China will consume Taiwan, Japan, The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, and Australia. All of them want to be autonomous and all have international commercial ties, Simialarly, Europe would be under Russia's control and they are deeply opposed.
Where's the fault in the alliance of despots? The US citizen is less disposed to play the game of world conquest than the Chinese or Russians. About a third will swallow any excuse to excuse bald aggression – IF THEY ARE NOT PERSONALLY INCONVENIENCED. So what if the world decides to 'inconvenience' the US consumer? What if the nations looking down the throat of the Russian and Chinese tyrannies decide they will neither buy from the US nor sell to the US until Donald Trump is on a leash with a muzzle? No talk of taking Canada or Greenland – butt out of Venezuela completely – let the UN set up free and fair elections and V. decide how to apportion its oil wealth for the people of that country. Quit trying to bully Canada and Mexico.
I don't know if the rest of the world can get it together and act in coordination. A bunch of European countries bordering Russia knows Putin is on the prowl. Japan has seen Hong Kong absorbed against their will. The PI is in military competition with China now. I think they are more likely than Congress to pull the plug on commerce than Congress will act. But all these countries can continue to trade with each other while the US is in isolation.
I'd love for the US to sign their surrender on a battleship in NY harbor with Mamdani witnessing.
The 2nd Great Game is afoot… and the sleepwalking into WWIII is happening now. My prediction is that the surrender to serfdom for the average citizen will be in the bombed-out NY harbor with Mamdani witnessing, in a pool of radiation poison, with the Tech Bros directing via a Zoom meeting from their doomsday bunkers in NZ or Hawaii. I guess I am kind of a "glass half empty" kinda' guy, though.
Posting here because I don't feel ready to comment on Minneapolis.
So, OT: Regarding Venezuela, since this administration wants to run Venezuela, I think drumph should resign his US role and head on down to take Maduro's job. I think he'd love to be president of Venezuela because it has so much beautiful oil!! And since he also likes being a dictator, he'd be able to enjoy being the head of a government that is already nicely designed as a brutal dictatorship. What could be better? Total brutal power and all of that oil! And he likes running things SOOOO much. (Of course, like everything else he has ever run in his life, he'll run it into the ground, but he doesn't have that self awareness).
[pardon my snark, but as things continue to get worse through 2026, I'll need to use a lot of snark to help me cope…]
And if drumph doesn't like that solution, maybe a certain Deputy Chief of Staff would enjoy a promotion to presidency of Venezuela, especially since he aspires to call the shots anyway. It would be nice if he would resign and head on down there; he seems so full of hatred for the US.