I understand the turnout for the Democratic primaries in Texas yesterday was much higher than for the Republican primary. The same was true of North Carolina. Gpod omens. Democratic voters are more fired up. I’m sad that Jasmine Crockett won’t have a seat in Congress next year, of course. If the DNC were smart they’d find something for her to do to keep her visible until she can run again in 2028. Unfortunately, the DNC isn’t that smart.
I’ve been seeing a lot of articles about why Trump decided to go to war with Iran. Most of them are nonsense, since they assume he has a coherent reason. I doubt that he does. This is why new reasons keep trickling out. The latest is that Iran was planning to assassinate Trump. Obviously, Trump had no other recourse than to go to war against Iran (she said, sarcastically). He’s also claimed Iran meddled in the 2020 election. Iran and the ghost of Hugo Chavez must have been in cahoots.
There are a couple of pieces at The Atlantic worth reading. I especially like The Paradox of Trump’s Iran Attack by David Frum. Here’s a bit:
You don’t go bankrupt as often as Trump has gone bankrupt if you’re good at assessing risk. Trump tells ridiculous fantasies presumably because he believes ridiculous fantasies. In his second administration, he has surrounded himself with sycophants who validate his ridiculous fantasies. When his fantasies unravel, Trump has a habit of abusing power to force his will upon an uncooperative world. When the Federal Reserve does not rescue him from his economic mismanagement, he orders his Department of Justice to open criminal investigations into a Federal Reserve governor and the chairman himself. If an actual shooting war goes amiss—takes too long, fails to yield the cheap and easy success Trump craves—what follows at home may exceed all past abuses of power.
Yesterday Heather Cox Richardson wrote,
About a week before Trump launched Operation Epic Fury, attacking Iran alongside Israel, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine warned that the lack of support from allies and depleted reserves of interceptors and Patriot missiles would make an attack on Iran risky.
Yet we’re spending money on this war like drunken sailors.
Alison Durkee of Forbes reported today that Trump’s military strikes in Iran have already cost U.S. taxpayers more than $1 billion. The three F-15E Eagle jets lost to friendly fire on Sunday cost $90 million each. Transporting troops, ships, and aircraft to the Middle East cost about $630 million. Missiles and weapons systems are also expensive—a drone is about $35,000, and a Tomahawk missile costs millions—and the two aircraft carriers in the region together cost at least $13 million a day. And then there are the costs of operating aircraft, and so on.
Jennifer Scholtes and Katherine Tully-McManus of Politico reported that lawmakers anticipate the administration will ask for supplemental funding for this operation, over and above the more than $150 billion the Republicans provided the Pentagon in their One Big Beautiful Bill Act and the nearly $839 billion in regular funding Congress appropriated in February.
I don’t think this falls under “America First.”
The other Atlantic piece is A Very Stable War by Jonathan Chait.
TheWall Street Journal reported on January 30 that Trump was planning a major military campaign, but was still “debating whether the main aim is to go after Iran’s nuclear program, hit its ballistic missile arsenal, bring about the collapse of the government—or some combination of the three.” Generally speaking, military strategists tend to first settle upon their objective, and then devise a tactic to achieve it. The Trump method of first deciding on the tactic, and only getting around to what he wants to accomplish afterward, is unorthodox.
A lack of clarity has continued to define the operation. In his videotaped message announcing the latest attacks, Trump repeated his boast that the previous round of air strikes, in June, had “obliterated the regime’s nuclear program at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.” But if the obliteration lasted only half a year, what value is there in re-obliterating it? Will biannual bombing campaigns be employed until Iran submits to American demands?
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again — Trump was never all that bright, and now he’s showing clear signs of dementia. Let’s stop pretending he has thought-out, coherent reasons. He’s mostly running on fumes and impulse now. Bibi Netanyahu and Mohammed bin Salman got in his head and persuaded him to go to war in Iran. That’s his reasons. He doesn’t really understand any of this stuff.
Plus there are are between 500,000 and 1 million US nationals in the Middle East who are now stranded. A lot of airports are closed; traveling isn’t safe. Staying in place may not be safe, either. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt helpfully said that they should have heeded State Department travel warnings to not go there. Sure; I never go anywhere until I’ve checked with the State Department. But not all of those people are tourists. I’m sure a lot of those people are there on work assignments, or they are studying or doing research or are there for an extended visit. Well, good luck, folks. Don’t expect any help from your government.
Update: Earlier today The White House claimed Spain had agreed to let our military use some of their bases.
Less than 24 hours after U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to cut off trade relations with Madrid over its refusal to let Washington use military bases on Spanish soil to attack Iran, White House Press Secretary Karoline Levitt claimed Spain had “agreed to cooperate with the U.S. military.”
Levitt said Madrid had heard Trump’s message “loud and clear” and was now coordinating action with Washington.
Um, but now Spain is saying that this is a lie.
The Spanish government was quick to dismiss the assertion, with Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Albares saying that he denies the White House’s claim “categorically”.
“Not a single comma has changed, and I have no idea whatsoever what they might be referring to,” Albares told Hora25 radio programme.
Jeezus, what a clown show.
I thought Vietnam taught the US military the crucial importance of an exit strategy. This sets a new record – not only do we not know how to get out, we have no idea why we ae there,
Today's talking point from Whisky Pete to Botax Barbie was to stop talking about dead soldiers to make President Alzheimer's look bad. They seem desperate to have the war rally the nation behind Dear Leader. Reeks of an admission that the operation can be renamed, "Operation Wag-the Dog"
1997 "Wag The Dog" Movie Synopsis: Shortly before an election, a spin-doctor and a Hollywood producer join efforts to fabricate a war in order to cover up a Presidential sex scandal.
There were no goals besides distracting from the Epstein Files so the effort to determine legitimate objectives, let alone if/when we've reached them, is futile. My concern is that they are strictly calculating the next step based on the reduced number of referances to Trump in association with child molestation. That's a really low bar to clear – that the press stops talking about you related to child rape. The other associated metric is Presidential approval. Rally round the flag and all that rot.
Kudos to the first major news outlet to brand this "The Epstein War." Speaking of which, House Oversight voted to subpeona Pam Bondi to explain the Epstein Files. She could be flirting with a Contempt of Congress citation. Or impeachment.
"Tomahawk missile costs millions"
I read today that we are shooting down Irainian drones that cost about 20 thousand with patriot missles that we humble taxpayers forked out 4 million a copy for! Sounds like an excellent strategy!
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/irans-missile-math-20-000-drones-take-on-4-million-patriots-iran-israel-war-iran-israel-us-tensions-11165943
Trump Math: Save money on curtains, squander money on missiles.
Maha, why are you still reading/quoting Jonathan "Dems must throw trans people under the bus to win white voters" Chait?
Chait says a lot of things I disagree with, but this quote was useful. And don't tell me what to read or whom to quote.
David – Maha isn't just the bartender in this virtual gin joint. She owns the place. When she says, "don't" it's not a suggestion. Your next ignorant comment will be your last here.
Speaking for myself, I'm more loyal to the truth than the source. I'll quote MTG from time to time. Not because I like her but it's fascinating that the truth is breaking through – even out there in MAGAland,
James Talrico is developing a stump speech that the divide is not left-right. It's up down. The rich don't want us to figure out that they are keeeping us at each other's throats to prevent us from figuring out that we're fighting with a bot that the ich guy bought just to keep the fight going.
Come to think if it, I haven't seen you before. Are you real?
Yes, clown show, but evil John Wayne Gacy clowns. I have also been reading all of the retired generals, colonels and others in the inteligencia say that the administration has put forward only confusion on the goal of this war and that air power can not win a war because it can not hold territory. I don't think Bibi and his Orange Renfield have a strategic goal that the pundits can comprehend; I think that this operation will mirror the genocide in Gaza.
Yes, Genocide. Bibi and the billionaires don't care about human life (as long as it is not, um, Israeli, he does not care about US citizens and his blood lust was proven in Gaza), so they will kill until there is nothing left to kill. Whiskey Pete and the Flying Monkeys in congress want to have a wiener measuring contest and will kill until they prove to themselves that they are men. The Mango Man just wants to be loved so he will kill until the cult stops praising him which aint gonna happen. Then, when the Persian are so "Palastinianized" that they can not go on any longer because they are all broken or dead and have no more standing buildings, perhaps they will love Mango Man and cheer Whiskey Pete's manliness and submit. I think Bibi will nuke them to speed up the process because he is evil and, apparently, Israel is mobilizing their nuclear forces and powering up their nukes. An a-bomb sure would nuke the midterms.
So, the US of A war strategy: genocide. Take that, pundits.
To me, it's painfully obvious that this is Israel's war, and that the USA is just acting like [a really big powerful version of] one of those little "Coalition of the Willing" countries which went along with our invasion of Iraq.
Israel has a clear strategic objective: to destroy the Islamic Republic of Iran and replace it with either (1) a pliant state which supports (or at least acquiesces to) all Israeli policies, or (2) a failed State which is incapable of actively opposing Israel.
Anybody who has been paying attention for the last couple decades should recognize this as the ultimate goal of US NeoCons:
“This is a memo that describes how we’re going to take out seven countries in five years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran.” – Gen. (Ret) Wesley Clark, 3/2/07, to Amy Goodman
Gen. Wesley Clark Weighs Presidential Bid: “I Think About It Every Day” | Democracy Now!
It has taken them a little longer than they planned, but they have finally managed to install & manipulate a US President willing to fulfill their wet dream.
It's no surprise that Trump & Co are unable to provide a real justification for our attack on Iran. Iran is not and has never been a serious threat to America or Americans.
Several military experts have pointed out that Iran as a nation state will never change to a posture of working to get along with its "fellow" middle east countries so long as they have several hundred thousand soldiers willing to murder their own citizens. As much as Pistol Pete might love the smell of napalm in the morning, I don't think an air war can eliminate those hundreds of thousands of military personnel.
So, yes it would take boots on the ground. And as long as the current civilian overseers of the US military insist on thinking that the lessons from Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan are simply that the leaders in those past wars of ours didn't talk tough enough, we are doomed to repeat history with another war of stupidity.
Yep, must watch:
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/one-billion-dollars
Never will square pegs fit into round holes and never will the petulant, destructive child develop to that understanding. Less so now as increasing age impairs any new trick development. No, the bigger more expensive hammer is just going to ruin more square pegs. That is the same mistake he has repeatedly failed to learn from. No tutor is going to help either, as the problem is not with the instructional technique but within the child. That level of understanding is just beyond this one. He has a bit of a problem with his numbers too.
That two dollar a gallon gasoline fantasy he was touting has taken a big hit since the board of peace was created. So far, it looks like an expensive illusion also. I watch what they call RBOB gas prices which are always lower than pump price. It is more a base wholesale price of gasoline without taxes and retail mark-up. It got as low as $2.20 of late but today is at $2.62. That should add some inflation to the Stagflation problem that looms. The stagnation part well, by the smell of things, that's not doing too well either. It could be leaking more with age too. That's not uncommon.