So the Strait of Hormuz is closed again, I take it. It was open, but as I write this on Saturday evening it’s closed. Iran has fired on some tankers that were underway, thinking they were safe. And this happened because the United States is continuing to blockade the shipping lanes. Why are we blockading the shipping lanes? I have no idea. And the Wall Street Journal is running a headline saying the U.S. is preparing to board Iran-linked ships. I can only read the first paragraph —
The U.S. military is preparing in coming days to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, according to U.S. officials, expanding its naval crackdown beyond the Middle East.
Why are we doing that? Maybe the WSJ explains it behind the paywall. It makes no sense to me.
Paul Krugman complains that Trump can’t even surrender right.
When you’re losing a war, but it’s not an existential defeat, your country, your government can continue pretty much as before. Aside from the humiliation, there’s a well-established technique, which is to declare victory and pull out. But it appears that Trump can’t even pull that off. …
…The United States has started imposing a blockade on Iran, which hurts the Iranians. It does give them a reason to seek a deal, but only if they get something out of it. So if allowing ships to start carrying oil and LNG and fertilizer and helium out of the Gulf allows them to sell their own oil again and to import food, which apparently is an important issue for Iran, then that’s a deal that can be done. It will, in practice, be a strategic defeat for the United States, but something that the Trump administration could try to spin as a victory.
But in order to get that, you have to actually deliver on that deal. You can claim that you’re winning and that they’re surrendering, not us, but you have to actually deliver on the deal. What Trump tried to do was to say, great, they’re opening up the strait, but meanwhile, we’re going to continue our blockade. And also, they have promised that we can have the uranium, which they had not.
That doesn’t work. It’s just basic logic. Why would the Iranians agree to a deal if they don’t get a lifting of the US embargo, don’t get their ability to sell oil and their ability to import food back? If that’s what’s going to happen, then you might as well keep the strait blocked. So what was this supposed to be? What was the idea? What was the thinking?
Krugman wonders if Trump is able to face the reality that he screwed up and lost a war. I suspect he can’t. IMO the continuing blockade only makes sense if Trump seriously thinks he can still entirely bend Iran to his will if he is just badass enough. He can’t admit he lost.
This is from Politico, published yesterday — Trump keeps claiming victory in Iran. Our new poll shows voters aren’t buying it.
New results from The POLITICO Poll show that support for military action is weak — just 38 percent of Americans back the strikes — and views remain largely unchanged from the days following the joint U.S.-Israel strikes, even as the administration has now had weeks to make its case.
This was predictable. And I don’t see anything happening that will improve public opinion. The best thing for Trump would have been to just accept Iran opening the Strait and withdraw, and maybe try to keep talking to them about the uranium. And then hope that by the midterms voters will have other things on their minds. But no. And more and more voters are finally realizing that Trump is nothing but a big bag of l’excrément, as the French might say.
Elsewhere — you’ve probably heard about the bombshell exposé of Kash Patel at The Atlantic. Here’s a gift link — The FBI Director Is MIA by Sarah Fitzpatrick. Patel is threatening to sue.
See also Trump seeks ‘resolution’ of his $10bn lawsuit against IRS, spurring concern at Al Jazeera. Yeah, he still expects the IRS to just give him $10 billion. Because he wants it.
Just wait till our service people finally make it to US soil and begin blabbing about the casualties. That silence you hear is what happens when Trump sells the media to his buddies.
There's a quote going around, where the new leader of Hungary marched into the state TV studio, and told the people there, that they're no longer going to be spewing hate, lies and fear. Orban, early on set their programming.
I think Iran was promised xyz if they open the Staight. My guess, Iran was to be allowed to export oil if everyone can. Otherwise, oil from Iran would be seized by the USN. This wasn't the whole deal, just a 'good faith' part that Trump wanted ASAP to give the impression it's gonna be over. (Insert anecdote of the boy who cried 'wolf,')
Iran opened the Staight to all, and Trump changed the deal. The embargo against Iran is still in place. Iran's response – they hit multiple ships, multiple ways to prove they can. They own it, and the question of whether they have the military power is settled.
There's no question that Trump wants the weapons-grade fuel. Some reports say the incident where US planes were shot down was part of a botched attempt to put a major force down to excavate the site and recover the stuff. Trump can't take it, so he wants to buy it – maybe with 20 billion in frozen assets. That was being negotiated, but Trump wouldn't keep the deal on opening the Straight.
The war can't last forever, but as we reload to pound them, as they pound the global economy, an old story comes to mind. I ripped off the quote, but it's better in Jerry's voice.
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Southern story-teller Jerry Clower tells of a coon hunt with Marcel Ledbetter, best coon hunter on earth….
One night Jerry and Marcel were out with their dogs when they treed a coon up a huge sycamore. Marcel, a firm believer in giving a coon a fighting chance, climbed the tree to shake the coon out. But it wasn't a coon, it was a lynx, and it went after Marcel something terrible. The tree was a-shakin' and a-quiverin' from the battle. Marcel was getting torn up. Finally, desperate, he hollered down at Jerry, "Shoot, shoot, this thang is killin' me." Jerry hollered back, "I'm afraid to shoot, I might hit you". Marcel hollered back down, "Just shoot up here amongst us, one of us has got to have some relief.
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I'm not sure who is gonna 'shoot up here amongst us' to end this cluster flock, but we've got to have some relief.
Trump is why God invented the straight jacket and the rubber room. He is disturbing to the point the world is in distress.
IMO, the US Navy is now "blockading" Iranian ports because NeoCon demons keep telling Trump that he'll look like a Loser if he chooses to back out of this damn war without wrecking whatever's left of Iran.
Sadly, when Liberals repeat that claim – that Trump looks like a Loser because we're now stuck negotiating with Iran – it reinforces the NeoCon's position, goading Trump back toward more bloody war.
I prefer to say that Trump looks like a Loser because he meekly – and stupidly – let Bibi talk him into a[nother] war which (1) never served US interests and (2) has [unsurprisingly] turned into a total CF.
And plz don't forget my warning in the previous post: anything which postpones re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz risks catastrophic consequences in several countries which are already teetering on the edge of collapse. (Pakistan & Bangladesh are probably closest to the edge, ecologically and financially).
So… plz, just hold your noses & cheer any move toward Peace that Trump makes!