Just noting quickly that the U.S. has seized an Iranian cargo ship while preparing for talks. This is from the New York Times:
A U.S. Navy destroyer on Sunday attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship that defied an American blockade of Iran’s ports, President Trump said, posing a fresh threat to the fragile cease-fire that is set to expire this week.
Mr. Trump announced the attack hours after a White House official said the U.S. was dispatching a high-level delegation including Vice President JD Vance to peace talks in Pakistan, even as Iranian state media said Tehran had not yet agreed to a meeting.
What is the bleeping point? Does Trump still think he can bully Iran into whatever it is he’s asking them to do? The Strait was open, but Iran closed it again because of the U.S. Navy blockade.
Update: The story thus far — Late last week it appeared that tensions with Iran were at least de-escalating a bit. There was a cease fire of sorts, although Israel wasn’t abiding by it. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open. There was opportunity for more negotiation for whatever Trump wants from the situation, which changes by the hour. But he probably could have gotten something that he could call a win. Things might have settled down, albeit with Iran in a much stronger position than before and continuing to control the Strait of Hormuz.
Well, bleep that. Trump had to escalate the situation for no discernible reason. The U.S. blockade of Iranian ports continued, so Iran closed the Strait again. The U.S. attacked and seized an Iranian cargo ship. and now Iran says talks are off. Al Jazeera:
Islamabad, Pakistan – Iran has signaled that it has no plans to send negotiators to Islamabad for a new round of talks with the United States, threatening Pakistan’s plans for multiday negotiations between the warring nations less than 48 hours before a fragile ceasefire is set to expire.
Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said on Monday Washington had “violated the ceasefire from the beginning of its implementation”, citing the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz since April 13, and the overnight capture of an Iranian container ship by the US military as breaches of the truce as well as international law.
He warned that if the US and Israel launched aggression again, Iranian forces “will respond accordingly”, while reaffirming that Tehran’s 10-point proposal, submitted before the first round of Islamabad talks, remained its basis for any negotiation.
“The US is not learning its lessons from experience,” Baghaei said, “and this will never lead to good results.”
The enormous majority of U.S. voters would have been content with gas prices coming back down as a “good result.” Now gas prices are shooting up again. And after this I don’t see Iran opening the Strait again until the U.S. completely withdraws. Which Trump/Hegseth won’t want to do, because that would be an admission of defeat. I suspect we’re at an impasse that could last a while.
Paul Krugman writes that if the Strait remains closed for very much longer — say, another three months — we’re looking at a global recession. It’s already hit Asian countries very hard. See The Forces of Scarcity Hitting Asia May Soon Spread Across the World in the New York Times. It could be a lot like the inflation-inducing shortages during the Covid pandemic, just without the masks and social distancing. And, of course, the entire world will blame the U.S.
Way to go, Donnie.
Donnie and Whisky Pete think they are softening up negotiations. The representatives from Iran are so in awe of our great greatness, they probably will beg to sign anything Vamce puts on the table.
Or they might not even show up except to give the media a list of diplomatic grievances and demand a delegation that understands diplomacy. Next week, in our name, Trump will begin a set of war crimes against civilians. Europe is suffering economically for this senseless war. It will come before the UN, and Trump will discover he has no friends.
May I suggest the 25th Amendment as reading material?
Can we turn donnie over to the ICC? Perhaps starting with his killing innocent fishermen in the Caribbean/eastern Pacific?
Have you actually read it? Can you imagine that it might ever be implemented, now that you have seen what an autocratic takeover looks like?
The 25th was, not precisely stupid, but woefully, unworkably naive. It will never be used to remove a President, for the exact reasons why it is not being used now.
The 25th Amendment wasn't written for Donald Trump; he's what impeachment is for.
The 25th Amendment was written for a President who is literally in a coma, where it's clear to absolutely everyone involved that he/she can't perform their duties.
Is this the darkness before the dawn or are we about to see just how bad things can really get. The state of the union, our union, is currently often written as being toxic, rogue, or even criminal. Is this just a bout of hysteria like over-reaction or an indication of a real problem? It is getting to look as though it is a real problem, and we are getting ourselves into a really tight spot. Creating a bigger problem to mask the current problem only works for so long. Is it now way past time to quit that strategy. The mask cannot hide this quantity of flaws. Reality's looming presence defies illusion.
The Right unable to even face up to what is wrong is the new normal. How right can that be? To deny a problem exists does not solve a problem. To misuse a real problem for political gain does not solve a problem, it institutionalizes it. To create an imaginary problem to avoid fixing current ones is a diversion tactic, not a problem-solving skill. Turning another country to rubble might end a war but diminish any chance for future peace. You conserve nothing when you destroy everything, yet those who destroy the most today like to call themselves conservatives.
Some say America should finish the job. The job is the war we started with Isreal they think. They are wrong. America and Isreal need to stop the diversion. They need stop fixing what is working but manageable. The only job a diversion is, is a con job. Own up to it, quit it, and fix what has been broken as best as you can. That is the only choice left. The one you refuse to take. Why? Because if it makes sense, you cannot do it that way. It is the guiding principle of the oppositional. Redouble on the stupid could be our destiny. They know no other way.
Has anyone seen this?
What the HELL is going on in the White House?
Just how reliable it is I don’t know but Larry Johnston usually is pretty reliable and seems to have contacts. Among other things Johnston has testified before the UN Security Council and interviewed Sergei Lavrov.
Robert Barnes’s wiki makes him look a bit weird to Canadian eyes but he seems likely to have the Washington/White House contacts.
If Barnes' description is even close to what is happening the White House is even more of a clown show than I had hoped would be the case.
A lot of that is very plausible.
Thx for the link, jkrideau.
Not sources that would be popular here (Larry Johnson says he "voted for Trump three times"!!!???), but Barnes' description of Trump's neurological decline really rings true.
I find his perspective on the clowns surrounding Trump and the dysfunctional "team Culture" in the White House to be very believable, too.
I suspect that his rosy opinion of Vance is relative: he doesn't see anyone else who can get us out of this damn war. I really hope that Barnes is right about Vance not wanting to run in 2028 is correct, but I rather doubt it.
What a frickin' mess. I'm stuck rooting for JD f'ing Vance to save us from Trump (and "Babylon Bibi"). Sheeesh.
Larry Johnson says he "voted for Trump three times"!!!???.
Well, at lot of the dyed–in–the–wool Republicans probably could not help themselves and, to be honest, looking in from the outside, in all three cases it seemed a choice of the least worst and party loyalty probably took over.
Biden did look a bit better candidate but one could see signs of dementia during his first campaign. Of course, one could see signs of cognitive decline in Trump too. I, actually, thought we would see a faster decline in Trump than Biden. But I am not a clinical psychologist.
I suspect that his rosy opinion of Vance is relative.
I sincerely hope so. At the moment Vance is faute de mieux.
BTY, if Vance were to resign what does that do to the succession?
Pretty sure that if the VP resigns, dies, or is impeached, Congress appoints the successor (perhaps after nomination by the President?). That's what happened when Agnew was shunted aside to keep him from inheriting the throne as Nixon's impeachment loomed.
The GOP would probably install one of their trusted Empty Suits like Rubio. And since the [trad Big Money] GOP doesn't trust Vance (and would have AIPAC/Mossad backing on that), as Trump's exit become more obvious, they will probably take that route.
What astounds me about Trump's stupidity here, was his declaring that Iran had said they'd never close the strait again, and were giving up their nuclear material. WTF, did he think they were going to be shy about saying "no, the lying dotard lied again?"
And all he had to do, was let Iranian ships, as well as non-Iranian ships, through the strait. But that was too much for him. Over at Digby's, I believe I saw a lot of oil futures traded hands (a very ahistorical amount), just as the strait opened, and oil futures plummeted. So we might really be in a Presidency where the grift is more important than reality.
I'd say "the grift is more important than national security," but, putting a clown like Patel in charge of the FBI proves you never cared about national security in the first place.
Also from Digby: The EPA is considering a rule where the value of a human life will be zeroed out; the EPA will consider only the costs of upgrading old power plants, not the lives that would be saved, because Trump wants an America where people don't matter.
Recently, I've been opining that the US needs single-payer health care for this very reason – so the government has an actual economic incentive to keep us healthy. I didn't realize I'd have such a stark comparison, as "human health=$0", so soon!
One thing I'd put $ on, is that Patel's days are numbered. I lived through a job where I more or less became an alcoholic to numb the pain. I was able to control it, but not completely hide it, and knew enough about Corporate Life that, sooner or later I'd get kicked out. I resigned before they could fire me.
Patel's unwinding in such a public position has got to be grating on Trump.
Thx, Maha, for the NYT article, esp as it reinforces my (far more apocalyptic) recent comment here about how continued closure of the Gulf threatens mass starvation in the "IndoPac" region.
Photo captions like "Rice mills in Vietnam have slowed production as electricity costs soared and farmers struggled with rising prices for fuel and fertilizer" really show how this damn war has broken the web of Global Trade.
OTOH, the upside is that disruptions in Helium, Nickel, Copper, etc, have put a big pause on the AI "boom"…
Bibi has been trying to sell this damn fool idea to American presidents for the last twenty years. Well, he finally found his damn fool, my only question is why he and Jared couldn't talk diaper don into it on his first go around? Eventually Iran is going to capitulate they can't go on forever without getting their oil to market but how long that takes is anyone's guess. In the meantime, this has the potential to send the global economy into recession. I guess nobody told diaper don about the Strait of Hormuz and how oil is a global commodity? Or maybe they did because a whole bunch of people are getting rich on these price swings. Anyway, none of this is surprising, trump is a fucking idiot, and this go around his cabinet is just as fucking stupid as he is. I got bored with retirement and have gone back to engineering work part time so I can absorb the price of gas plus I sold my twin-engine go-fast boat, so I'm ready for six dollar a gallon gas, bring it on!
The non stop lying has finally caught up with Trump. Now there are consequences. When he lies about the war — its over! Then Iran shoots down a plane. He lies about the strait being open. Then Iran bombs a ship in the strait. He says Israel and Lebanon are no longer fighting. Then Israel attacks Lebanon. These lies are not like "I'll have a health care plan in two weeks." Every time he lies its exposed almost immediately as a lie, and he’s exposed over again as a fraud who's out of his depth and doesn't know what he's doing. Hes made a laughingsrock of himself and the US. But he’s “owning the libs” so its all good.
Jake Wagner wrote this comment in response to an op ed piece on the stock market in today's NYT. These are the numbers we are up against.
And it is reported that Scott Bessent, the treasury secretary with the irritating grin, won't even give an estimate of the war cost so far.
I was stunned when I saw this reported previously, and it should be getting a lot more attention, especially in light of Trump's war and what he's asking for next year's DoD budget. But its being studiously ignored because republicans are in charge, and the media has been key in keeping up the fiction that republicans are "good for the economy," something that hasn't been true in the last 60+ years, at least. If this had been reported under Biden, no democrat could appear anywhere without being asked about why democrats are destroying the country. But here we are, and this isn’t even being talked about. Even the man who coined “The Laffer Curve,” Arthur Laffer, isn’t laughing anymore. Its pure BS, and republicans know it. That’s why they don’t even bother to mention “trickle down” anymore.
Every republican president since Reagan has given the wealthy literally trillions in tax cuts, paid for by borrowing mostly. And every republican president since Reagan left office with a crashed economy, that a democrat came in and fixed. The promise was "cut taxes, increase revenue" which on its face doesn't make sense.
When he left after his first term, Trump added more to the federal debt than every president previously, combined! These numbers validate that it was nonsense. Federal revenue has NEVER increased as a result of tax cuts. But the total wealth, the net worth held by the top 1% reached approximately $49.24 trillion by Q3 2024. That's where the money went. And if they are serious about fixing this, and they're not, they would tax the rich to claw back some of that money and apply it to our debt/liabilities.
Given what Trump and the GOP are doing, one can conclude that their goal is to crash the economy. Then, when a democrat is elected, they will blame that person for not "fixing" everything on day one. The media will help push the narrative, "tax and spend liberals" and a gullible public, incapable of remembering anything beyond the current year, will "throw the bums out," put republicans in and start the cycle all over.
I keep searching for a hint, how it will end. Others have pointed out that there's a format for declaring victory and withdrawing when a smaller country won't submit and you, the larger country, won't invest the blood in a prolonged ground war. It's worth noting that Great Britain could not do that in the US Revolutionary War because we were waging a war of piracy deep in the Caribbean against any British merchant ship.
The corollary lies in Iran's power to close the Strait of Hormuz. Britain's power, as an island nation, was based on sea power. The US is reliant on energy. While Iran can and will choke much of the global energy supply, the US economy will suffer. Trump is threatening to cut off supplies to Iran, seizing any ship that brings even humanitarian aid to Iran. (War crime) He is threatening to bomb civilian infrastructure after claiming the US has destroyed all military targets (War crime) And some of the countries that may suffer famine will be called on in various political bodies to vote on the offenses. Some in Congress have warned of consequences for the US military in the next administration for war crimes. Being expelled from the Army will be happen, and not be prevented by a pardon.
This can be solved diplomatically, but Trump and Bibi, won't get what they want. Or it can be solved through genocide, turning the world against us. I think the next round of talks will be short – Tehran will offer to open the Straight now, but only if the US gives full access to and from Iranian ports, and while no party to the conflict (Israel) is attacking them.
AP just called the Virginia Special Election. "YES" wins, which means Democrats can rewrite the map to give them a potential four-seat pickup in the US House. Somebody is cleaning ketchup off the wall in the WH.
The long clean up begins, starting with some loud squawking from some really messy, lame in an exceptionally challenged way, ducks. It is not much but any reprieve from the horror is welcome. Sam Brownback entered that duck walk ten years ago in Kansas. It was the first incarnation of DOGE without the large capital letters. Inspired by Grover Norquist and Arthur Laffer, we attempted to make government so small we could drown it in a bathtub. The clean-up from that mess is still in progress.
No one ever really admitted what a failure it was. Even today no one talks much about it. I will be happy to see at least some of our national mess cleaned up. A few less discouraging words would not hurt so much either. A thousand points of light may never return, but I think if at least a few get relit, everyone's attitude will improve. It takes lots of time to recover from lessons learned at the school of hard knocks. Ten years after Brownback scars remain. Still too soon to call the state recovered. Step one was surviving the lame duck period. Coming soon, we can hope, to a nation you can feel more near and dear to. Thank you, Virginia.