An interesting comment I heard yesterday from one of the teevee bobbleheads is that Trump is getting more and more of less and less. For example, Trump’s wackadoodle nominees have been taking out GOP incumbents Trump doesn’t like in the primaries. This shows us that the base, who care enough to vote in primaries, are still with him. More and more. In the meantime, his support among the general public is falling like a rock. Less and less.
In some places the wackadoodle nominees are not going to do as well in the general election. Add to this the gerrymandering that reduces Republican margins in previously safe GOP districts. This could result in a massive backfire. And if Trump’s endorsement of Ken Paxton helps Paxton win the Senate runoff next week against incumbent John Cornyn, this could make a Dem flip a tad closer to reality.
And I don’t see Trump getting any more popular in the next six months.
See David Graham at The Atlantic, The Price of Trump’s Primary Wins.
Trump’s hold on the MAGA base is still powerful, but the same actions that help him maintain it also help erode his standing with the broader public—and threaten to lead Republicans to defeat in November’s midterm elections.
Primary voters—and especially primary voters in Indiana, Louisiana, and Kentucky—are not representative of the general electorate. (Trump won those states by 19, 22, and 31 points, respectively, in 2024.) They aren’t even necessarily representative of the Republicans who vote in the general election, a group that is likely to be less engaged, less ideological, and less politically extreme overall. As a result, votes in November are more likely to hinge on issues such as inflation or the Iran war.
Graham goes on to say that, at the moment, Republicans facing re-election are more likely to want to not cross Trump than to stand up to him. But one of these days that could change. And, ironically, Trump’s desire for personal glory would have been better served by a more adversarial Congress that kept his worse impulses in line.
Speaking of which, it’s a bit too soon to see public reaction to Trump’s new slush fund reflected in the polls. But see Trump approval sinks to record low among Republicans in stunning Fox News poll at The Independent.
The survey, conducted by the Trump-friendly conservative news network, found a seven-point rise in the number of self-identified GOP voters who now say they disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, with just 36 percent of non-MAGA GOP respondents saying they approve of his economic record compared with 74 percent of MAGA Republicans who say they approve.
But the supermajority of MAGA voters who still back his handling of the economy still wasn’t enough to keep his approval rating on the issue from plummeting to just 29 percent — a full 5 percent lower than what the same poll recorded a month ago.
This trend is likely to continue, and the way Trump has been behaving I don’t think he’s capable of turning it around.
I’m reading the slush fund will be really hard to stop. Several lawsuits have been filed, but this Reuters article explains why, for legal/technical reasons, it will be hard for them to succeed. On the other hand, Greg Sargent writes that some Republicans in Congress are opposing the slush fund. Probably not enough, but some. However, even if it’s reversed eventually, the $1.8 billion may have been dispersed by then.
Agree that Trump's diddling in the primaries will only aid in his demise, come November. It's shaping up to be an election like few others – massive crossover from Independents + sane Republicans to support the pro-democracy candidate. Red vs Blue isn't going to define it.
Similar thing is shaping up in Los Angeles – he endorsed a mayoral candidate – a reality TV star – who lost his home in the Palisades fire, and blames the current Democratic mayor for inaction. LA is second to New York in hate Trump central, so Mr Reality TV would have an uphill battle in any event. I think Karen Bass, the current mayor should send Donald a Thank-You note.
Yes, we're seeing bad faith on the parts of all Republicans. In normal times, this kind of thing couldn't be entertained; today, we're numb enough that people will do it, and we kind-of have to hope the outrage is enough to matter.
The judge did note that, with dismissal, there was no agreement of record to settle the case. Normally, the lack of an agreement, reviewed and signed off by the judge, would prevent an acting AG from taking such extraordinary steps (or so I assume), but, Trump doesn't care about what judges think. He's completely unbound by the law, and only the Republican controlled congress can do anything, and it's drastic: impeach and remove. It's not like writing laws will help, he ignores them. But we're long past the worst possible nightmares of our founders.
People should flood the goddamned fund with requests for money for health insurance, SNAP, injuries to officers defending against "weaponization," injuries to Republicans who had to compromise their principles by defending a felon, and horrible human being like Trump.
No, wait, there are no such Republican principles that were violated. They never had them in the first place or they'd have done something before now.
That the head goon comitted such a brazen act of corruption, right in our faces, and that many lieutenant goons are rushing forward to claim their share of the booty, shows you how desperate they are. Strap in.
Looks like congress might spike the requested $1 billion for the ballroom, so I'm betting the "recompence" fund will be redirected to that and Tubby will refile his "suit" against the IRS to steal more money from us.
David Graham wisely writes of long-erm consequences in the general election resulting from the Paxton endorsement. He warns of a plausible loss of a Senate seat in Texas as that long term consequence. This may go down as the second biggest understatement of all time. The biggest understatement of all time being Noah's wife suggesting to him that it might look a little bit like rain.
That understatement remains speculative in historical accuracy but unchallenged as understatement in the extreme.
There is a real risk the republican party, in the long run, could permanently lose claim to the moral high road. A solid minority presently see them as having at least a corrupt wing. The balance could easily tip to corruption being associated with the entire party, especially with the flood of untoward actions by the present party.
A political bias favoring the immoral or criminal choice seems systemically established in more than a wing, but party wide at this time. The Paxton endorsement is but icing on the cake.
Ready for some woo-woo? The psychics I follow say Massie actually the won his election – it was stolen from him. This one is representative. Moreover, his life is in danger, given his intention to read the Epstein list into the record, in his months remaining.
There is no limit to what the powers-that-be will go to, to keep the lid on this scandal. Consider "Operation Epstein Distraction" in Iran. It really is that big.