Things will fall apart. Right now lots of things appear to be falling apart. Trump’s partnership or whatever it was with Netanyahu is gone, for example. And now Netanyahu faces a possible re-election defeat in October. I’m not sure how a Netanyahu defeat will play out in Israel, but if it weakens the right-wing coalition that has dominated Israel for the last 30 years or so, that would be a good thing.
I keep reading that the MAGA coalition is fracturing. There have been “MAGA is fracturing” stories going back to March and April. The war with Iran accelerated the fracturing. Initially people who had believed Trump when he promised no new wars felt betrayed. Now the rest of the coalition feels betrayed. The $300 billion for Iranian reconstruction seems to have particularly put a lot of them off. Republicans aren’t too happy with it, either.
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), echoed the sentiment, telling reporters: “History teaches that giving billions of dollars to theocratic lunatics who want to murder us is not a good idea. I think the president is receiving some very poor advice on this deal.”
He’s not getting advice, Ted. Trump only listens to his own gut.
And then there’s this.
Ben Shapiro, the right-wing commentator who has been a loyal soldier to Trump’s Middle Eastern military incursions, was not so measured. The Daily Wire founder had a full-blown conniption over the memorandum of understanding. Shapiro cast most of the blame on Vice President J.D. Vance, and zeroed in on reports that Israel had not been a party to the negotiations, that the U.S. and its Gulf allies would establish a $300 billion reconstruction fund for Iran, and that the deal will allow Iran to continue to exert financial control over the Strait of Hormuz.
I’m not sure that the Gulf Allies are going to be putting money into Iran reconstruction. The text of the agreement says:
The United States of America undertakes with regional partners to develop a definitive, mutually agreed plan with at least USD 300 billion for the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The mechanism for the implementation of this plan will be finalized as part of a final deal within 60 days. All required licenses, waivers and permissions needed for the relevant financial transactions will be granted by the United States of America.
The Gulf States were not party to the agreement, and I suspect they will tell Trump to pay it himself. we’ll see. In fact, I’m wondering if the Gulf States are going to be quite so friendly to Trump going forward. They must see he’s a lame duck who can’t be trusted. But so far Mohammed bin Salman is sticking with him, as far as I can tell.
Speaking of other things falling apart, here’s a headline from the New York Times:
Who couldn’t have seen that coming? Hegseth, apparently. RFK the Lesser hasn’t weighed in yet. The outbreak is at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas. Since I’m almost out of New York Times gift links, here’s the story from ABC News:
The basic training facility for the Air Force in San Antonio, Texas, is experiencing a flu outbreak following the end of mandatory vaccination for all service members.
As of Wednesday, there are at least 159 known cases among recruits and two hospitalizations at Joint Base San Antonio, two sources familiar with the matter told ABC News. One source told ABC News the number of cases and hospitalizations may be higher.
The outbreak comes after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced in April that the annual flu vaccine would be optional for all U.S. military personnel, both active and reserve.
The Senate shows signs of a falling out with Hegseth. This is from TPM:
The Senate has tucked a provision into the must-pass annual defense bill that would drastically cut Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s personal travel budget unless the Pentagon coughs up more information on the lawless campaign of high seas boat strikes.
The bill, which passed the GOP-controlled Senate Armed Services Committee last week, is trying to force the disclosure of the unedited footage of every boat strike in the campaign. It also wants more information on the Pentagon’s investigation into the apparent U.S. missile strike on a girls school in the opening days of the Iran war.
If the Pentagon fails to provide the information, Hegseth’s travel budget would be cut by 75%. The Senate tried a similar but less draconian move late last year, which the new provision suggests didn’t succeed in obtaining the requested information.
You might remember that last year all 45 Democrats and both Independents voted against confirming Hegseth as SecDef, along with three Republicans: Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, and Lisa Murkowski. (I think McConnell has been out of f***s for a while.) This resulted in a 50-50 tie, which was broken by the Veep. Some of those Republicans who voted to confirm Hegseth must be sorry by now.
I’m hearing the Senate is tired of being blindsided by Trump. You must have heard the story that the Senate was determined to confirm Trump’s new nominee for Director of National Intelligence, a fellow named Jay Clayton. This had to be done by Friday in order to prevent Trump’s other pick, a walking dumpster fire named Bill Pulte, from becoming the acting director. Clayton isn’t qualified, either, but having Pulte as DNI is a step below putting the Reflecting Pool algae in the job. But Trump refused to allow the confirmation to go forward. He wants Pulte to help him screw up the midterm elections. So now we’re stuck with Pulte for a few months. And I understand even a lot of Senate Republicans are pissed at Trump.
And this takes us to The Apotheosis of Donald Trump by Peter Wehner at The Atlantic. In his second term, Wehner writes, “Trump, left on his own without adult supervision, has lurched from blunder to catastrophe.”
As a result, Trump’s approval ratings have cratered. Consumer confidence has fallen to historic lows. Public sentiment is in “complete collapse” on key issues. The mood of ordinary Americans has soured, with many more dissatisfied than satisfied. For the first time, we’re seeing signs that Republicans in Congress may resist the will of the president. And Trump’s MAGA coalition, which until now has been cultlike in its loyalty, is fracturing and turning on itself.
And then there’s Trump’s advancing age. The signs of his deteriorating health, both physical and mental, are unmistakable. There is nowhere left for Trump to go except into further decline. The question left to us is how long he will be allowed to lurch into more catastrophes? I seriously question if he’s gong to last until 2028. If Congress doesn’t reel him in, his own failing health might.
Things do fall apart.
OK. So when the Senate refuses to approve the 300B, we are in violation. Which gives Iran an excuse to refuse to abide by commitments to water down the uranium. Trump has announced that in the blame game Vance is to be sacrificed over Iran. Does this signal Rubio in ascendance? I still think Trump will demand a third term to dodge prosection.
If he lives that long. It's too obvious he's a walking cardiovascular episode waiting to happen.
You have to have a heart to heve a heart attack.
Whiskey Pete will almost certainly order the sick soldiers dishonorably discharged for being wimps.
I seriously agree with your assessment of Trump's health, but my intuition says the mental decline will long precede a medical episode that finishes him off. The good news is that Trump will not acknowledge the evidence – falling asleep in front of the camera and spouting gibberish. About half of the cult will stick with Trump, and the others will fragment. Some with Vance, who Trump will make the fall guy for Iran, some for Rubio, some for Ted Cruz, and the rest of the GOP fragmented. It's entirely possible that the USSC won't consider the constitutionality of Trump seeking a third term unless he wins, which is a distinct possibility with the large number of 'credible' alternates. It won't matter if the USSC upholds the Constitution or lets Trump run – the GOP is toast in 2028.
Does Bibi have Epstein evidence of Trump's pedophilia? It's a weapon to threaten with, but using it will destroy both Netanyahu and Trump. You would think if Bibi had that leverage, he'd have used it last week. But I think Neenyahu is as vindictive as Trump – if he's destroyed by Trump, he will want to return the favor.
It's my hope that in 2028, Democrats will turn the corner on Israel. We must back Israel's right to exist, but NOT their right to oppress. As long as the US is financing its military, we can demand they stop with the murder of civilians and the theft of land. I don't want to see the mass extermination of Jewish civilians, but I refuse to accept the slaughter of Palestinian women and children is the inevitable price of security for Israel. We have tiptoed around the ugly truth for too many decades. If Israel insists on conducting genocide, the US must let Israel pay the price in ams, and in the loss of life of Jewish civilians, the predictable result of attempted genocide when it does not succeed.
This was a news blip:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/fbi-arrests-5-people-in-connection-with-drone-attack-plot-against-white-house-ufc-freedom-250-event/ar-AA25LWAo
The conspiracy built around the cage fights at the WH was to use a drone attack to stampede the audience into the guns of snipers. It wasn't Antifa – ot was ultra- conservative lunatics. It will be fun watching DOJ try to rebrand these kooks as left-wing.
"Things do fall apart."
Nothing lasts forever – you can almost hear the rest of the world saying, "Those poor Americans are suffering from a bad case of National Insecurity." Someday we'll get it right again.
So much for POTUS infallibility, not to mention the level of SCOTUS fallibility that got us in this mess. The founding fathers thought impeachment the process for salvation in crisis but made the conviction hurdle too high and overestimated the statesmanship level of the Senate. They did see problems like this coming though, and we almost made it 250 years. Who knows. We might even pull off a landing. As to the fate of the reflecting pool, that we can rename it as the basin of fallibility. A superlative sized reminder that leaders are human too, they just pretend to have god-like characteristics.
This might just be the darkness before the dawn. So too a night and a nightmare we never wake up from. Do we own up to and learn from our mistakes, or do we continue to deny and repeat them?
Congress acts as a child frozen in fear. Afraid to do the wrong thing as it does nothing. Perpetual gridlock is not a viable political action when a nation is…in whatever state this state is in.
Happy Juneteenth. May the answer erupt from The Great Basin of Fallibility newly erected in our capital city. It may turn out to be money well spent.
Going OT: quoting from The Hill today
"Just 18 of the 435 House races are in the “toss up” category, according to Cook Political Report. Fourteen of those seats are held by Republicans."
One of those is my district, CD 17 in New York, currently represented by the hapless Mike Lawler.
"…and as things fell apart, nobody paid much attention…"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2twY8YQYDBE&list=RD2twY8YQYDBE&start_radio=1
Bonus mess: Heard about the new Screwworm infestation among cattle in Texas? Turns out that Musk's Dogeboys cancelled a Biden program to fight the infestation, and Trump reversed Biden's ban on importation of cattle, horses & bison (Screwworm vectors):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uHBRKq0-S70
"…don't leave me standing here, I can't get used to this lifestyle…"
Re The Basin of Fallibility
When you don't know even how much you don't know you can excel at failing.
From the NYTs comments to Maureen Dowd's column.
Credit Paul Crowstowski,
These are the people Trump despise. The ones that keep you from wallowing at The Basin of Fallibility. From the finish:
Opinion | Creature From the Green Lagoon – The New York Times
A comment by Duke deserves mention. He used the subtitle of Somewhere south in his message in response to Creature From the Green Lagoon piece.
I see more comments to read for another NYT piece regarding the makeover.
Trump’s Reflecting Pool Is Plagued by Multiple Problems, From Green Algae to Broken Pipes – The New York Times
Yeah, I think Limbaugh deserves more "credit" for discovering the formula which Murdoch used to build FOX: people love to have their biases reinforced, and advertisers love gullible audiences.
Bonus note: the "late Republican senator/actor" mentioned was Fred Thompson, not Limbaugh.
As I expected, another jewel from the snark tank. Humor from acm Texas.
Words are often deceptive, while actions project a person's honest self. Oh, the naked but humorous truth spews from the green slime.
Ha, the slumlord effect… a perfect explanation for what has happened to our public service sector
Trump invented a name for a color – 'American Flag Blue.' It looks like the color that will be remembered is 'Trump Alge Green.' If he clears up the water by July 4, the degree of peeling should be obvious, but how much more sealant will detach only time will tell. Trump made it a big deal – the mess that it is will become an even bigger deal.
Iran closed the Straight of Hormuz this morning because Bibi is ignoring the 'not murdering civilians' aspect implicit in a cease-fire. Trump is saying the Straight is actually open because Trump is in charge. In actuality, Iran has shown the capacity after they 'lost' the war, to shoot down two US planes and a helicopter. So no one thinks the announcement from Tehan is an idle threat. That especially includes the insurance companies that won't underwrite the risk of running a 700-million-dollar tanker through a war zone.
As I read the tea leaves, Iran is saying to the US, of you want oil flowing again, leash your dog Bibi. If Netanyahu is Iran's problem to solve, it will be solved by war. The giants are discovering the risk of defeat in asymmetrical warfare. Ask Putin. Or look how Iran is cleaning our clock. I do not know if Iran will quit trying to destroy Israel if Israel respects their neighbors. It's a moot point until Israel is willing to concede the rights of Palestinians to exist in safety.
Trump's authority to shut down Netanyahu is based on exerting unconstitutional power, denying the shipment of arms to Israel, which Congress has passed into law. If Congress wants to do something about it, they have to be willing to impeach. If Trump is impeached, it puts Vance in the hot seat with the dynamics intact. To open the Straight, Bibi has to back down. (And this is all tangled with the view of Christian Nationalists that a war with Iran is a component of the Second Coming of Christ. Poppycock, but a break point for the most violent faction of Trump's base.) If Trump has anyone capable of strategic thinking, he should be sending envoys to talk to the most likely successors to Netanyahu right now. That will get Bibi to make and keep concessions to Trump.
At the moment, Iran seems serious about curbing Israel's incursions into Lebanon. Bibi looks hell-bent on a land grab. If that continues, the world is facing a recession at the least. a Great Depression if the stupidity continues. It seems likely the oil reserves will run completely dry, which means we will have less fuel available each day than we normally consume. Higher prices and outages. Perhaps a lot of outrage at the aggression of Israel, which is costing the rest of the world.
We are a long way from anything that looks like 'normal' in terms of energy. If the Senate does not take action and lets Trump bumble around in an attempt to gaslight the voters, the GOP will pay for it in November.
Mohammed bin Salman may be sticking with the USA for the moment but it looks like he has been taking out a bit of insurance as well.
From back in April 2026:
Why did Pakistan deploy military personnel, fighter jets to Saudi Arabia?
Interesting, thx. Article is dated 4/13/26, so this was 2+ months ago, not long after Iran's missile & drone attacks on Saudi soil. The message to KSA was probably something like "we will honor our defense pact, but we don't really want to get into a war with Iran"; the message to Iran was "Don't attack KSA again, please, AND Or Else." Seems like a smart, balanced message.
Bonus: closed Straits likely mean shortage of jet fuel in Pakistan, so might as well let pilots burn Saudi fuel for a while.
Linked article says the Pak jets went to "King Abdulaziz Air Base", which is on the Persian Gulf, near Bahrain. It counts as a "US Base":
https://militarybases.com/overseas/saudi-arabia/abdul-aziz/
"The child that is not embraced by the village, will burn it down to feel its warmth" African proverb.