Nothing seems to be going right for Donald Trump. He thought he had the Strait of Hormuz open. But Israel’s continued bombing of Lebanon caused Iran to announce the re-closing of the Strait. Then Trump posted on Truth Social, “Iran must immediately stop their highly paid PROXIES in Lebanon from causing trouble. If they don’t, we’ll hit Iran very hard again, just like we did last week, only harder!!!” and also “You close it and you won’t have a country.”
Now apparently the Trump Administration and Iranian officials are arguing over whether the Strait is closed or not.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Sunday that the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz is returning “back towards normal,” a day after Iranian officials signaled they would be closing the vital waterway due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
The Trump administration official said 67 ships went through the strait on Saturday, a slight increase from 55 on Friday as the U.S. military escorts vessels through a southern route in the channel.
But the most recent news I can find has Iran saying that “unauthorized” vessels are not being allowed through, whatever that means. And the BBC reports that “Tracking data monitored by BBC Verify suggested that at least five tankers passed through the strait on Saturday while several vessels appeared to have made U-turns in the area.” Several media outlets are reporting that it’s not clear if the Strait is opened or closed now.
Iranians and J.D. Vance are supposed to be meeting in Switzerland now , but the Iranians walked out after about 80 minutes, reportedly because of an “insulting message by the U.S. president.” So we’re off to a great start. The Iranians are saying that the deal depends on the war between Israel and Lebanon stopping, now. We’ll see how that goes.
Trump and Netanyahu are no longer speaking, I take it. Until recently Trump was more popular in Israel than he was here, but now Israelis have turned against him. Israel is holding elections in October, and I’ve read that the Likud party had prepared an ad campaign that featured the great relationship between Trump and Netanyahu. That’s been scrapped.
Trump’s plans for the 4th of July aren’t looking that good, either. He’d promised a multi-day entertainment extravaganza featuring the likes of, um, what’s left of Milli Vanilli? Plus a whole lot of other people I don’t remember from the 1990s. Now I take it it’s been compressed to a Trump rally. Trump says also there will be “more than 300 Members of our strong and talented Military Bands, Orchestras, and Ceremonial Units, will perform Patriotic Melodies and American Classics, and my Playlist.” Too bad Lawrence Welk couldn’t be there. Trump is also promising the biggest fireworks display of all time, which means people should steer clear of DC because that’s bound to get screwed up, too. I just hope the celebration doesn’t kill anybody.
And then there’s the Reflecting Pool fiasco. Trump’s “cleanup” made it worst, and everything done to clean up the cleanup has made is more worse. See Science Has a Name for What’s Plaguing the Reflecting Pool by Matt Viser at The Atlantic. I assume y’all have seen that not only is the water green, the “American flag blue” paint on the bottom Trump was so proud of is peeling off and floating to the top. Trump has decided the failure of his cleanup must have been caused by vandals, so now he’s got National Guard guarding the algae. And the algae probably need to lawyer up.
Tourists have been taking away chunks of the blue paint as souvenirs. But this morning a fellow was arrested for just touching one of the floating blue blobs of peeled paint. This was David Hearn, a former Olympic canoeist and cyclist from Bethesda, Maryland. Trump claimed that US Park Police had “arrested multiple individuals for vandalizing our Nations magnificent Reflecting Pool,” but as near as I can tell it was just the one guy. I don’t know if he’s still being detained.
And Trump is saying the pool needs to be drained again. Someone might want to explain to him he needs different contractors who know what they are doing. But I doubt he would listen.
Trump has also lost his best friend in Europe, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni. He got into some kind of stupid spat with her. This was possibly because she refused to have anything to do with the Iran war.
But the man can’t get anything right these days. I wonder what he will screw up next?
I just hope that Bibi and NeoCons and Zionillionaires don't bribe or extort Trump into reigniting a shooting war with Iran.
I don't really care what happens with any of the other aspects of the MOU (except maybe protecting Lebanon from the IDF); IMO, it's all vague aspirational junk which will take years to negotiate properly.
I just want the Straits open. I recognize that it will take a [long?] while to get back to "normal", but for now, dozens of ships each day is *way* better than the averages for the last few months.
For now, I don't care if most of those are "theirs", not "ours", and I don't really care if shippers have to bribe Iran ("tolls", "fees", "insurance", whatever) to get their ships through. USA and Israel *should* be held responsible for all damages in this damn war, but the US Congress would never allocate any such funds, so we'll have to let Iran get "reparations" however they can. Yeah, it's ugly, but getting oil, gas, and fertilizer to the countries and people who need it is more important than any legalistic quibbling.
In the medium term, I figure that Iran won't really "close the Straits" again *unless* we (and/or Israel) attack and/or blockade them again, because they can't afford to piss off China (and India, and other BRICs). Today's news kinda confirms this: Iran *said* it was closing the Straits again, but (AFAIK), they didn't actually attack any ships. For now, most shippers will avoid testing Iran's verbal "closures", and will just wait until they say it's "open" again. Again, it's an ugly kludge, but *anything* we do to try to force the Straits open would instantly close them, hard, for weeks.
The best thing we can do now is just take our bombs and go home. The MOU is essentially a fig leaf to cover our butts while we do that, and that's fine with me.
From what I've read Trump and Bibi are seriously estranged. So I'm not too worried about that. Those other folks you mention are a concern, but my sense of things is that the oil execs who met with him a couple of weeks ago genuinely put the fear of Absolute Disaster in him of he didn't get the Strait opened asap. So we'll see if he can stay focused on that.
Bingo, Maha, on the oil execs thing.
Are Trump and Bibi more or less seriously estranged than relations with Melania? (rhetorical)
Melania doesn't have the Epstein Tapes.
OTOH, maybe she's really the mastermind behind everything Trump has done…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5wfPlgKFh8
Melania could possibly be a foreign asset. Seems like a conspiracy theory, but keep in mind that the Epstein/Oligarch/Billionaire class view themselves as transcending annoying national boundaries, which are, to them scams, because laws are for the peons.
Just musing.
Not even the principal performer?
We've reached the point where Trump is in the impossible position of trying to cover his enormous ass with just his two tiny hands. Blame somebody else. It's not Donl's fault that Bibi continues to slaughter civilians in Lebanon. There have been over 3,000 deaths in Lebanon (reported, not verified) since Israel kicked off hostilities. And less than 2 dozen IDF fatalities. And Trump today blamed Iran for financing terrorism from Lebanon against Israel. The body count paints a different picture. Despite the reported conflict with Bibi, I don't think Trump has the cahones to even threaten to cut off offensive weapons to Israel.
I read what Maha mentioned, that Iran walked out on talks with Vance after he delivered an insulting message from DJT. Iran knows that Trump wants out ASAP to try to save the Senate in the midterms. If Iran can open and close the Straight of Hormuz at will (and they can, because they did ) Trump did not win the war. How much damage Iran can or can't inflict on shipping is not the point – the perception of increased risk to the insurance companies on the hook for 700 million plus ecological damage will end commerce through the Straight.
Trump's swamp is better than any writer could have thunk up. I predict construction walls will be erected around the mess while repairs are done. They can't fill from the Potomac in summer, it seems, without treatment, or they have the same mess. If the blue liner is gonna peel off chunks for the next two years, it should be removed. But Trump won't and the blue chunks will continue to be trophies for Democrats. But for the 4th, it will be a walled-off source of humiliation.
We're down to four months in practical terms before the November election. IMO, Trump conceded the 300B payoff to Iran, never intending to pay. But he expected greed to kick in, and the impulse on their part to do nothing to endanger a deal that favorable. Iran isn't falling for it. From day one, they're holding Trump to keep the aspects of the deal that require the US to constrain Israel.
And the clock on the midterms keeps ticking.
Green Water (parody of "Black Water" by the Doobie Brothers). My favorite line:
I saw a hilarious image of Stephen Miller, crawling around the green water, with a fish in his mouth, like Gollum.
How the Italian Prime Minister Openly Lambasted and Ridiculed Trump.
He's shrinking, losing power every day. I expect his smash and grab backers to go for the gold in the time remaining, because they know the bonanza is ending. Hang on to your social security. Mike Johnson's been making noises about cutting it to balance the budget.
I guess he really is that stupid. That would be just the thing to put the final nail in the GOP's coffin before the midterms. But maybe someone will explain to Moses Mike that Social Security is separate from the general budget.
The Epstein class (which he still rules from the grave) operates on the Pass-pass system. Failure is never even an option because this is just a variation of the guaranteed A program or system. Grade inflation is never enough for the Epstein class. In their world a four-point grade average is only a standard for the poor and politically disabled.
For the Epstein class children, their system is all about the numbers that come after the decimal point. The four is a given. Extra credit if your parent is on the school board or demonstrations of competence in "the right" extracurricular activity. Sure, cult affiliation counts if it is the "right" cult.
Deconfliction mechanisms are being built. Using real estate jargon strong foundations are already built for them. Erections of the magnificent deconfliction mechanisms is underway. Cultural demolition remains as a prime threat in the fabulous deal which cannot be refused. As always, everything is ahead of schedule and well below budget. It always is for the Epstein class. The schedule and budget are secret. You can expect them released in two weeks or so.
How to CYA with Tiny Hands: An Unauthorized Biography will be released about the same time we hope. Foundation work on the cover is already completed. The chapter on pedophile protection techniques is still a work in process. A working group is being formed to look into why it is delayed.
Who could have guessed that an international war criminal might have a problem controlling his aggressive behavior. Which one you ask? All of them. Only the delusional world leader would think otherwise. Which one you ask? Same answer.
Ah the Epstein class. Always hard at work making the vulgar Tonie. Rothko had to paint his masterpieces before they discovered reflecting pool green. What a pity.
Toxic? Ducks are dying?
I am sure that Prime Minister Meloni was begging for a photo opportunity with President Trump! Most likely Trump's people advised against it. Meloni, dressed in plate armour, mounted on a white horse, and striking at Trump with her lance might not have played well in the USA but would have been a big hit in Rome or Milan.
After JD Vance was dispatched to Hungary to support Victor Orbán, being associated with Trump or his coterie has to be the kiss of death for most or all foreign leaders. I was going to say European but I don't see anyone, anywhere rushing to volenter. Maybe President Milei of Argentina would if given the chance but he is insane.
Vance claimed that Iran agreed to let international inspectors in to verify the status of nuclear fuel. Iran says no such deal was made. Trump is getting flack for his unconditional surrender to Iraq, so the administration has a motive to lie
Vance is saying that $12B of unfrozen fonds can only be used to buy US agriculture products. It's not clear Iran signed on to that provision.
A shaky ceasefire in Lebanon is holding. Gas prices in FL are on the way up. Trump is lying his formidable ass off with clams that record-high volumes of oil are passing through the Straight. The gaslighting isn't clever because reality will rain on the parade soon.
Trump is lifting the oil embargo against Iran, which also has the righties incensed. Tucker Carlson announced he's done with the GOP.
How significant is this fissure? Trump is failing. I think some are looking now for a true savior. Vance is the face of the Iran debacle. I doubt anyone associated with Trump can step up. None of Trump's critics will have much credibility.
No one in the international community is likely to believe Donald Trump; it's a pity Vance is joining him. Vance is sounding like John Kerry who used to say one thing just before he boarded the plane in Moscow and the exact opposite when he disembarked in Washington.
Vance is saying that $12B of unfrozen funds can only be used to buy US agriculture products.
Yep, nothing like getting the thief to give back your money and then handing it back.
Vance says during his press briefing that US President Donald Trump’s top aide Jared Kushner has worked with Qatar on a proposal under which, “if there is any frozen Iranian assets that are unfrozen,” the US and Qatar would both have approval over the process, and the money would be used to purchase “American soy, American corn, and American wheat for the benefit of the Iranian people.”
Do we even know if Iran needs soy, corn or wheat? IIRC, the biggest market for US soybeans was China before Trump wreaked the market. Most of those soybeans were to feed pigs. I don't think pork production is a major part of the Iranian economy.
Russia is an ally, a major wheat exporter, and much closer to Iran. Therefore Iran will buy US wheat?
I'd say the US is already repudiating the MOU.
I don't think Iran expects the USA to actually follow through on many of the points in the MOU.
The most obvious example is the $300M Reparations clause. House and Senate would both have to vote to allocate the funds, and everybody – including Iranian leaders – knows that's not gonna happen.
The provision for removing US military bases from "proximity" to Iran is vague; Iran probably expects out of Iraq (yay, finally!) but not *all* of the GCC's.
I *do* think Iran is serious about us releasing the $12B; that should be easy, because it really is their money, illegally sized by Western banks years ago.
I also think they're very serious about sanctions relief, but they must recognize that could be slow. Some of that may require Congressional approval, and NeoCons who burrowed into the US Treasury Dept will slow walk the rest, but Trump has taken an important first step by allowing Iran to export oil.
I also think they're very serious about getting Israel out of Lebanon, but they may accept (unofficial?) Israeli annexation of the territory which the IDF currently holds, as long as they stop bombing Beirut and the rest of Lebanon.
On the flip side, I believe that Iran will (eventually) accept a no-nukes deal, though they will want it to look more like the NPT than the JCPOA. IMO, Iran will be willing to forgo nuclear weapons; the former Ayatollah's fatwa still stands (and nukes are so Cold War, anyway). Besides, hypersonic missiles will provide them with a more effective – and less morally horrific – deterrence against future (Israeli?) attacks.
IMO, Iran is under pressure from China (and India, and other BRICS?) to open the Straits. As long as the USA was actively attacking Iran, they had a good excuse to close the Straits; as long as we don't attack them again, that excuse no longer applies.
China puts a high priority on encouraging political stability among its neighbors (Mao's preference for exporting revolution died with him; China has reversed to its historical Confucian norms). Food scarcity in South and Southeast Asia would get real messy, so China really wants the Straits open.
I figure that Trump and the Iranians all know that the MOU is just a pile of words covering up the real "deal" which will be slowly negotiated, and possibly never even finalized.
What really matters is that neither side has attacked any commercial shipping since the MOU was announced.
I found this rather amusing.
Macron's rather subtle jibe.