Springtime for You-Know-Who

Politico is running another pre-postmortem on Romney’s campaign, blaming his failure to connect with voters on his campaign manager.

Can you name Mitt’s campaign manager? Yeah, I couldn’t either.

I liked this part:

As mishaps have piled up, Stevens has taken the brunt of the blame for an unwieldy campaign structure that, as the joke goes among frustrated Republicans, badly needs a consultant from Bain & Co. to straighten it out.

“You design a campaign to reinforce the guy that you’ve got,” said a longtime Romney friend. “The campaign has utterly failed to switch from a primary mind-set to a general-election mind-set, and did not come up with a compelling, policy-backed argument for credible change.”

So where is Romney in all this? The Great Executive, the Savior of Mount Olympus, the Wise Steward of Massachusetts, the Glorious Light of Capitalism manifested in the world? Is he being led around like a steer at a cattle show, with nothing to say for himself?

It appears establishment Republicans who have lived through a few election cycles recognize a disaster in the making, and they are rushing to pin the blame on anybody but, you know, Republicanism and the whackjob ideology it stands for these days. This means that after the President is re-elected they won’t feel a need to modify themselves. It wasn’t us. It was him.

On the other hand, one of Booman’s readers suggests that Romney is running a campaign based on Mel Brooks’s The Producers. Maybe when the votes are counted Mittens will grab the rest of the war chest and head for the Cayman Islands. Or is there a tax shelter to be had somewhere?

Best good news so far today: Elizabeth Warren is leading Scott Brown in two new polls.

Ruth Marcus — Not Shrill Yet, but Mighty Peeved

Even Ruth Marcus is dropping her usual “both sides do it” position and says Mittens is out of line and owes somebody an apology.

After all, the Republican presidential nominee wrote a book in 2010 premised on, and titled with, the false notion that Barack Obama has been going around the world apologizing for America….

…Romney repeated this falsehood in his acceptance speech in Tampa, claiming that Obama launched his presidency “with an apology tour.”

Oddly enough, Romney’s evidence for Obama’s alleged apologizing is bereft of certain words — like apology, or sorry, or regret. To Romney, apologizing means never actually having to say you’re sorry.

Oh, snap, Ruth.

So when the U.S. Embassy in Cairo released a statement condemning “the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims,” Romney was predisposed to see it through the distorted, if politically convenient, lens of apology.

Ruth Marcus goes on to explain what had actually happened and why Mitt’s interpretation of events held no water. Then she said,

As irresponsible as Romney’s behavior Tuesday night, even worse was his move to double down at a Wednesday morning news conference, following word of the deaths of the U.S. ambassador and three other American diplomats in Libya. Tuesday night, before the killings were known, was amateurish. Wednesday morning was unconscionable.

“It’s never too early for the United States government to condemn attacks on Americans and to defend our values,” Romney said, apparently believing that the embassy should have been able to foretell the attack before it occurred. In the space of three sentences, he criticized the administration for standing by the embassy statement and accused it of sending “mixed signals” by disavowing it.

The question and answer session was even worse. “Simply put, having an embassy which . . . has been breached and has protesters on its grounds, having violated the sovereignty of the United States, having that embassy reiterate a statement effectively apologizing for the right of free speech is not the right course for an administration,” Romney said.

Leaving aside his flawed timeline — later tweets from the embassy combined criticism of anti-Muslim bigotry with condemnation of the attacks — Romney’s interpretation of what constitutes an apology is once again far off-base. …

There is something disgraceful happening here, but it doesn’t involve a comment by an obscure embassy spokesman. It is Romney’s cynical, dishonest effort to take advantage of this national tragedy for his own political ends.

I read through the whole thing looking for the “both sides do it” shoe to drop, and it didn’t drop. Of course, Ruth probably will follow this up with a column criticizing Obama for something and conceding that Romney has a point, somehow.

But, Mitt, when not even Ruth Marcus will cover your ass, you are in big trouble. David Broder must be spinning in his grave.

Update: Mitt issues a statement nearly identical to the one issued by the White House that was supposed to be an “apology.” Spine of marshmallow, or what?

Romney Stuck in 1980

Truly, the more I try to fathom where Mitt Romney keeps his head, the more I suspect he really does think it is still 1980, and he is Ronald Reagan running against Jimmy Carter.

As I remember, Ronald Reagan’s main shtick in 1980 was —

  1. Jimmy Carter’s alleged foreign policy ineptness (e.g., Tehran, Moscow)
  2. Voodoo economics
  3. Evil welfare Cadillac queens

Plus there was some stuff about Carter being bad for the oil industry, and Carter supported the Equal RIghts Amendment while Reagan opposed it.

Today, Mittens is running on

  1. Barack Obama’s alleged foreign policy ineptness (e.g., Tehran, Moscow)
  2. Fantasy economics
  3. Barack Obama as the king of evil welfare Cadillac queens. Or maybe it’s Volt queens now.

Plus, Mitt says President Obama is bad for the oil and coal industries, and there’s the war on women. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Mitt is only about four years older than I am, and I’ve managed to keep up with the times. Well, I don’t have a smart phone. But at least I’ve figured out it’s not 1980 any more.

There is new violence in the Middle East today; protesters are storming the American embassy in Yemen. I don’t believe Mittens has made any new foreign policy statements today; maybe the criticism he got from Republicans yesterday penetrated his thick skull.

Seriously, his judgment on matters such as the attack on the Libya consulate and refusal to release any details of his economic policy, never mind his tax records, has been so abysmal I wonder for his mental health. He doesn’t seem to be living in the same time-space continuum as most of the rest of us.

It’s possible events in the Middle East will unfold in a way that favors Mitt, but so far he’s made the President look better by comparison. He wants the election to be a referendum on President Obama, and he’s making it into a referendum on himself. He wanted to portray the President as alien to America. I think we should demand Mitt’s birth certificate to be sure he’s from planet Earth.

Via Kevin Drum, Andrew Sprung writes,

You do not have to be expert in anything to assess the merit of Romney’s reaction — or his fitness for the presidency. You need only be a social mammal of the human species.

In response to everything Obama does or says — or, for that matter, anything his primary opponents did or said — Romney’s reaction is so knee-jerk condemnatory, so extravagantly worded, so predictably self-serving that the instinctive response for most listeners or readers not themselves besotted with hatred for the target has got to be, “this guy is faking it.” His condemnations have the rote extravagance of a Soviet communique.

At the very least, Mitt appears to be very, very bad at “reading” people and situations and responding appropriately. And this points to something very deficient in basic socialization — I started to say “character,” but it’s something even deeper than character. I don’t know if there’s a name for what Mitt’s problem is, but he appears to be miswired somehow.

Nuts and Dolts

Click only if you have the stomach — Mark Steyn responds to Sandra Fluke’s speech at the DNC with some misdirected verbiage suggesting that the oppression of women is necessary for the good of the economy.

Ann Romney wants you to know that reproductive and marital rights are not what this election is about, so you people had better stop asking her about it.

Ann Romney also wants you people to know that her husband is just oozing with goodness. No, Queen Ann, those are lies. Way different.

We now know that the Romney campaign is targeting eight states — Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and New Hampshire. Per Nate Silver, the only one of those currently leaning toward Romney is North Carolina. Jonathan Chait writes,

The reason this looks worrisome for Romney is that he’s pursuing an electoral-college strategy that requires him nearly to run the table of competitive states. The states where Romney is not competing (and which aren’t obviously Republican, either) add up to 247 electoral votes. The eight states where Romney is competing add up to a neat 100 electoral votes, of which Romney needs 79 and Obama just 23. If you play with the electoral possibilities, you can see that this would mean Obama could win with Florida alone or Ohio plus a small state or Virginia plus a couple small states, and so on.

Unless I’m missing something badly here, Romney needs either a significant national shift his way — possibly from the debates or some other news event — or else to hope that his advertising advantage is potent enough to move the dial in almost every swing state in which he’s competing.

IMO the targeting makes sense if you have been following Nate Silver’s data. Polling in most states is remarkably lopsided, heavily favoring one candidate over the other. Even if you had all the money in the world to burn, it wouldn’t make a lot of sense to advertise in those solid red or blue states. In less than 60 days, barring some unforeseen event, no way the needle is going to move that much.

More Buzz About Bill; or, R&R’s Empty Campaign

Interesting observation from The American Conservative, where Daniel Larison admits that the case Clinton made against Romney and Ryan was devastating —

… it was all the more devastating because Romney and Ryan made no concerted effort to make the case for their ticket and their agenda last week. … Part of what made Clinton’s speech so devastating is that he compiled all of these objections, linked them together, and presented them to a large television audience all at once in a way that was easily digestible.

Another reason the speech was so devastating to them was that he gave the sort of speech that Ryanmaniacs might have once imagined that Ryan would deliver and the sort that some Romney supporters still imagine Romney is capable of giving. Romney-Ryan was supposed to be the presidential ticket of the “data-driven” manager and his budget wonk sidekick, and between the absence of any significant policy discussion last week and what happened tonight that has lost all credibility. Clinton outperformed both of them in terms of discussing policy details, and underscored just how meaningless the “campaign of ideas” phrase has been. Ryan fans had been convinced for over a year that the election had to be a contest over “big ideas,” and when it came time to engage in that contest their party leaders didn’t even try.

There are several possible reasons they didn’t even try. It might be that they do have a substantive argument for themselves tucked away somewhere, and they haven’t trotted it out because they think the electorate is bored with that detail stuff. I get that vibe from a lot of the Right, actually; they just want the red meat, not the wonky vegetables.

So instead, the GOP decided to package Romney as a swell guy who can be trusted to take care of things, and you don’t need to worry your pretty little head how he’s going to do it. That approach also assumes that people are so disappointed with Barack Obama that no one has to make a substantive pitch about why Romney would be better. They think the electorate is so desperate to find an alternative they’ll vote for anybody who has a nice family and looks good in a suit.

If that’s the case, IMO it’s a miscalculation. A lot of people probably would consider voting for someone else, but not necessarily ANYBODY else.

Or, maybe Romney and Ryan are saving the juicy details for the debates. They aren’t trotting them out beforehand because they don’t want to give the Dems time to craft counterarguments. In which case, maybe those arguments aren’t all that solid.

Another possibility is that they have a substantive argument, but they are keeping it hidden because they know most of the electorate would run away screaming if they knew what it was. (Along those lines, do read Tom Levenson, “Visions of the Apocalypse: Not in Fire, Nor in Ice, But in the Emptying Beds of a Nursing Home.”)

Or, maybe they don’t have a substantive argument, just a facsimile of one. Ryan’s budget possibly seemed brilliant to a lot of journalists who briefly looked at it — I assume it has, like, numbers and stuff — but the few knowledgeable people who actually studied the thing generally have been aghast at how flimsy it is. Krugman has been calling it a “fantasy.”

This takes us to two sets of sub-possibilities — I should be diagramming this — one, they honestly didn’t understand their calculations were hallucinatory; or two, they knew all along the calculations were hallucinatory and didn’t think anyone (but a few liberal wonks) would notice.

If we go with sub-possibility one — I can easily imagine that Ryan has such faith in his ideology that he didn’t think he had to make all the numbers crunch; his ideas are just so self-evidently true (to him). However, if he still thinks that, I don’t know why he would be shy about defending his ideas. Possibly someone recently got through to him that his grand ideas really are not defensible. Drag them out of the Fairy Castle of True Belief and they melt into a pathetic little puddle.

And, finally, maybe they’ve both been faking it. In which case the debates will be fun.

Update: Another possibility, from Ed Kilgore:

Larison’s analysis strengthens my growing belief that in choosing Ryan as a running-mate, Romney had zero intention of making a robust defense of the Ryan Budget or pursuing anything else the conservative movement was panting for him to say or do (other than the racially-tinged demagoguery about welfare). It was precisely the opposite: he figured he could shut up the noisy ideologues by offering them the symbolic prize of Ryan and then running his campaign in exactly the non-substantive way he always intended. This end-the-primaries strategy, as I’ve called it earlier, depended, of course, on swing-voter ignorance about Ryan and indeed the entire GOP agenda, and on Democratic complicity in a campaign about pre-set cartoon caricatures rather than anything that might look like an “idea.”

Plausible. And if that’s the case, it’s also plausible Romney will shift and allow Ryan more leeway to make a case for his ideas. But his ideas are nuts — see above about the Fairy Castle. And if that’s what Romney thought he got very bad advice from somebody (Karl Rove?).

Romney-Ryan Campaign Implosion?

This surprises me — Romney and the GOP SuperPACs are pulling ads from Michigan and Pennsylvania, meaning they don’t think they have a prayer. And the Los Angeles Times reports that in the past few days most Romney television ads have disappeared in Ohio and some other battleground states.

We know this can’t be because the Romney campaign and the SuperPACs are short of dough. They’re rolling in it. I also can’t believe the RRs are giving up on battleground states. So what’s up?

My guess is that they decided the old ads weren’t working and pulled them before they have new ads in the can and ready to go. But how long does it take to crank out a campaign ad? Even a so-so ad would be better than no ad at all, considering the Obama campaign is still running ads full tilt.

Of course, maybe they’re all just too incompetent to run an effective campaign.

Andrew Romano at Daily Beast suggests that Republicans are stunned by Mitt’s un-bounce from his convention.

Republicans were predicting that Romney would follow in Clinton’s footsteps (rather than, say, Dole’s). Wait until the convention, they argued. Wait until all the Santorumites and Newtheads rally around Mitt in Tampa. Wait until the country sees him speak. Romney’s underwater ratings will evaporate shortly thereafter, and he’ll never look back. …

… And so, given that least one former nominee had used a convention to dig himself out of a big favorability hole, I figured that now, five days after Tampa, was the right time to check back in and see if Romney’s own popularity problem had finally cleared itself up.

Unfortunately for the GOP, it hasn’t.

Romney has issued a few ineffectual bleats this week about the Dem convention being a “celebration of failure” and the platform being “extreme,” but that’s not going to resonate with anyone but wingnuts and baggers. I suspect Romney and his aides are having one meeting after another right now about the direction of the campaign, and by next week we may see an entirely retooled Romney effort. But what could they possibly try that they haven’t tried already?

No Scribbling on the Etch-a-Sketch

white-romneyBeside the chair, one of the more remarkable things about last week’s GOP convention was a lack of specificity. Speakers ran down Obama and promised President Romney would make “tough choices” — Republicans like the word “tough” — but so far Mittens has managed to run a nearly content-free general election campaign, and the convention didn’t change that. His acceptance speech told us next to nothing about what specific policies he might pursue.

A couple of day’s ago Greg Sargent provided a glimpse into the Romney campaign strategy. Apparently the Romney folks assume that many people who currently plan to vote for Obama are just being emotional — they like Obama and are attached to the symbolism of the first black president. These are the voters Romney thinks he can win over.

Romney’s argument is that the Obama Administration has been a dismal failure, and it’s time to put someone in charge who knows how to Get Stuff Done. Unable to convincingly pivot (or shake the etch-a-sketch) from the extreme right-wing positions he endorsed during the primaries, Romney now is offering himself to the general electorate as a generic alternative candidate. He is deliberately making himself the blankest possible slate. His people think that if the electorate sees Romney has a responsible, successful businessman and not the vampire squid that he is, voters will be won over and won’t ask questions.

As I remember it, in 2000 George W. Bush pretty much got away with a similar sort of campaign. He made some promises about cutting taxes and using the budget surplus (that he eliminated with the tax cuts) to save Social Security, but other than that he mostly just packaged himself as a successful businessman and governor and moderate Republican while painting Al Gore as, well, weird. In 2000, enough of a complacent public bought that to enable the Bushies to get their boy “selected.”

Greg Sargent argues that public opinion about President Obama is more complex and nuanced than Romney thinks.

Despite the Romney campaign’s assumptions, these voters may be proving unexpectedly resistant to the conclusion that the Obama presidency amounts to an “extraordinary record of failure,” as Romney put it recently. It’s true that majorities disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy. But disapproval can mean different things. A disapproving voter may be disappointed in the slow pace of the recovery, but may also have decided that the crisis was so severe — and the resulting problems run so deep — that Obama could not have done much to make the country recover faster.

This came up again and again in interviews with swing voters done by Ron Brownstein and yours truly. And it would explain why more Americans consistently hold Bush responsible for the current economy.

In other words, a lot of voters may be disappointed about sluggish economic growth without necessarily wanting to kick the President out of office, especially if Romney can’t explain precisely what he would do differently to turn things around. An extraordinarily charming politician might pull it off, but Romney ain’t that, especially when he behaves just like your SOB boss when he has to mingle with employees at the company Christmas party.

I also wonder how Romney is going to remain Mr. Blank Etch-a-Sketch during the debates. You know President Obama is going to hammer him on specifics, and I don’t think Romney’s “vote for me ’cause I’m the white guy” act is going to score him points. This is not 2000; people are not complacent. They want to see the fine print. Maybe they have been underwhelmed by Mr. Obama, but they aren’t going to hand the White House keys over to someone they suspect might make things worse.

Barring some unforeseen disaster that might be blamed on Obama, between now and November, I think Mr. Romney is going to have to stop just saying he is a successful businessman and start acting like one to appeal to the majority of voters. And to me, that means providing a more credible business model than what he’s coughed up so far.

Update: One more thing — Republicans don’t know how to be cool.

La Douleur de la Mitaine

Nate Silver says Mittens may have gotten a teenie little bounce of maybe two or three percentage points — more of a bouncette — out of the GOP convention. He really needed better than that to change momentum in his favor.

And on to Charlotte.

Via Digby — GLoria Borger actually said this —

“In 1968, France was a dangerous place to be for a 21-year-old American, but Mitt Romney was right in the middle of it.”

I immediately envisioned a comic book cover showing Young Mitten (“La Mitaine Jeune”) running through the streets of Paris, dodging a barrage of stale croissants and irate taunts, armed with nothing but the Book of Mormon. I so wish I could draw. This would be perfect for Mad Magazine.

The quote comes from Tommy Christopher at Mediaite, and you should just read the whole thing. La Mitaine Jeune was in France avoiding military service the same year 16,592 Americans died in Vietnam. La Mitaine got four deferments, no doubt made possible by money and family connections.

Borger says the French were très désagréable to La Mitaine because of U.S. involvement in Vietnam. French attitudes toward the U.S. war were complicated, as I remember. Vietnam had been part of French Indochina, and there was a lingering attitude that if France had gotten some help from the U.S. they might not have lost at Dien Bien Phu. So, yeah, he may have gotten some attitude. Poor baby.