Convention, Day 1

I’m watching the convention on MSNBC. At one point, MSNBC cut to the beginning of Nancy Pelosi’s speech, and there was no sound. So I flipped to CNN — no Nancy Pelosi; CNN was on a commercial break. I turned to Faux (briefly) — Nancy was in a corner of the screen, and the bobbleheads were talking over her. Finally I went back to MSNBC. The audio link was fixed, and they showed the speech without interruption.

From what I can see through the television screen, stories about Clintonistas causing chaos at the convention are highly exaggerated. The loud die-hards out on the streets in their tin foil hats are not serious about politics; they are trying to draw attention to themselves. Chuck Todd made a good point when he said they were the Dem equivalent of Ron Paul supporters. There will be unity in the hall.

There is speculation that Senator Kennedy will address the convention. If he can do it, that would be amazing.

Update: Well, there he is. This could be really important for the party.

Update 2: I’m listening to Michelle Obama’s speech. She’s very good.

More update — this was a very good speech, well delivered. And she looks gorgeous. Oh, and there are the little girls.

Keith Olbermann is saying “case closed.” Wait until the reaction from the Right. They’ll find something to pick apart so they can hate her.

BTW, Little Lulu is reporting that there are riots going on outside the hall. She’s got a streaming video of the “riot,” which consists of people meandering around. Somebody buy the girl a dictionary.

Do we want to review what went on in New York City during the 2004 GOP convention, Michelle?

The GOP Glass Ceiling

The GOP talking point du jour is about the Dems’ problem with women voters. Since Senator Hillary Clinton was not chosen to be on the ticket, the Dems have imposed a “glass ceiling,” they say. The usual tools on the Right and the Hillary Bitter Enders have picked up this ball and are running with it.

So let’s look at some numbers.

Eight women currently are governors of states.

Dem women governors: 5
GOP women governors: 3

I count 72 women in the House of Representatives

Dem women representatives: 52
GOP women representatives: 20

There are 16 women senators:

Dem women senators: 11
GOP women senators: 5

Numbers that lopsided are not a coincidence. And here are some more:

Number of GOP women who were serious contenders for the 2008 nomination: 0
Number of Dem women who were serious contenders for the 2008 nomination: 1

Number of GOP women who have been Speaker of the House: 0
Number of Dem women who have been speaker of the House: 1

Number of women the GOP has ever nominated to a presidential ticket: 0
Number of women the Dems have ever nominated to a presidential ticket: 1

Even as the McCain campaign sorts through its selection of rich white men for the veep spot, it has put out an ad asking why Clinton was “passed over” and showing clips of her smearing Obama during the Endless Primary. I’m sure the Hillary Bitter Enders will embrace the ad as more proof that Hillary should have been chosen the nominee.

BTW, current polls show Obama beating McCain among women voters by 12 percentage points.

American Prayer


Written by Dave Stewart of the Eurythmics. Lyrics:

This is my American Prayer

This is my American Prayer

This is the time to finish what you started

And this is no time to dream

This is the room

We can turn off the dark tonight

Maybe then we might see

American Prayer

American Prayer

And this is the ground

That keeps our feet from getting wet

And this is the sky over our head

And what you see depends on where you stand

And how you jump will tell you where you’re gonna land

American Prayer

American Prayer

My oh my

Couldn’t get much higher

Lets not kick out the darkness

Make the lights brighter

And these are the hands

What are we gonna build with them?

This is the church you can’t see

Give me your tired, your poor and huddled masses

You know they’re yearning to breathe free

This is my American Prayer

American Prayer

American Prayer

When you get to the top of the mountain

Will you tell me what you see

If you get to the top of the mountain

Remember me

h/t COwoman

The Veep

There are rumors that Obama’s veep pick could be announced this afternoon. If not today, then probably tomorrow.

I started to title this post “hope springs eternal,” because there is feverish anticipation that Hillary Clinton will be the veep candidate, even though I would have thought that notion had been put to rest weeks ago. An editorial in the New York Daily News says,

Barack Obama is on the verge of his first major choice as would-be President of the United States. As early as today, he will announce his running mate, with all signs indicating that he’ll bypass the class of the field:

Hillary Clinton.

If so, Obama will chalk up a huge missed opportunity to boost the Democratic Party’s chances of victory and to add a major asset to his White House in the event he is elected.

I still think Hillary Clinton would be one of the least helpful veep candidates on the “possible” list. As Alec MacGillis wrote,

Lost in this analysis, though, is a crucial fact: many of Clinton’s primary-season supporters are not necessarily loyal Democratic presidential election voters.

Indeed, many of the states and counties where Clinton racked up her biggest numbers in the primaries are places where voters remain Democrats in name only (think Kentucky). Such voters may have turned out to participate in an exciting 2008 Democratic primary, but they have not voted for Democrats in recent presidential elections, and can hardly be considered part of the Democratic base.

Take Beaver County in western Pennsylvania, where the New York Times today found strong resistance to Obama among Clinton supporters and Obama lost to Clinton by a whopping 40 percentage points during the primary. If Obama does not win all those voters back, he will hardly be the first: Democrats outnumber Republicans in the county 68,000 to 35,000, yet Kerry won the county by only 2.7 percentage points. And despite losing so many of the county’s Democrats to George W. Bush, Kerry nonetheless carried Pennsylvania.

She will bring over the die-hards among her supporters, but my guts tell me that putting Hillary Clinton on the ticket would cost Obama at least as many votes as he might gain. She might bring him Arkansas, although it’s been a long time since she’s lived there, and I wouldn’t count on it. He’s already got New York.

And as soon as she’s on the ticket, the entire election will be about the Clintons. That’s the last thing Obama needs, IMO.

There isn’t anyone I can’t think of who is without liability. I’m ambivalent about Joe Biden, but I prefer him to Bayh, Kaine, and Sibelius, who in total have less charisma than my gym socks. Wes Clark or Jim Webb would be exciting, if riskier, choices.

We’ll see.

The GOP Advantage: Stupid Is Easy. Smart Is Hard.

It took me a while to find it, but I thought you’d enjoy this little nugget from October 5, 2004, dug out of the Mahablog Archives.

Why We’re Screwed

    Bush’s years as a good-time Charlie and heavy drinker may actually help him draw a contrast to Kerry. Bush led a more “normal” life as a young man, spending his college and postgraduation years partying, chasing women, and raising hell, while Kerry sought academic excellence, positioning himself to be a leader of his generation. Kerry’s devotion to high-minded pursuits, first through his combat service in Vietnam and then as an opponent of the war, may have impressed some, but it now is often portrayed by adversaries as opportunistic and self-important. Those accusations are rarely made against Bush, who showed little interest in leadership as a younger man. [U.S. News and World Report]

We’ve come a way from George Washington and the cherry tree, huh?

The original U.S. News and World Report article, by Kenneth T. Walsh and Dan Gilgoff , appeared in the October 3, 2004 issue. It serves as a nice time capsule to show us how the “elite” versus “regular guy” narrative played out four years ago. The paragraph quoted above still makes my jaw drop.

Smart is elitist, and elitism is, you know, bad. So we can’t elect smart people, and instead elect stupid people, because they connect with us, and they’re more fun to have a beer with, even when (they say) they’ve stopped drinking. Then we wonder why the government doesn’t work. Stupid? Do tell.

I mean, where else in the world is someone accused of academic excellence and high-minded pursuits?

Occasionally we hear that there’s an “anti-education” culture among African-American males that causes them to under-achieve. I will leave it to others to decide how true or false that is. It just seems to me that this phenomenon is not limited to African-American males. The whole country is infested with it. It’s just plain not cool to be smart.

Case in point: Saturday’s event at the Rev. Rick Warren’s Saddleback Church. Discussing this not-debate, Sally Quinn writes that she wishes she could live in John McCain’s world:

I want to live in a world where Gen. David Petraeus and Meg Whitman, former chief executive of eBay, are the wisest people I know, where offshore drilling will help ease our energy crisis, where a guy stays in a Vietnamese prison camp even when told he could get out, and has great stories to tell. I want to live in a world where I was absolutely certain that life begins at conception, where a man is a maverick and stands up against his Senate colleagues when he disagrees with them, where the only thing to do with evil is defeat it, where a guy will follow Osama bin Laden to the gates of Hell to capture him.

I want to believe that our biggest enemy is radical Islamist terrorists. I want to be part of a world that doesn’t have to raise taxes; where America is a beacon, a shining city on a hill; where our values are simply Judeo-Christian values; and where a man always puts his country first. I want to be one of “my friends.”

John McCain’s world doesn’t appeal to me all that much, but let’s go on …

Obama came first, and he handled himself well in front of an audience that clearly disagrees with him on many issues. He also managed to put to rest the notion that he is a Muslim, which 12 percent of Americans still believe he is. He talked directly to Rick Warren as though they were having a real conversation, whereas McCain played to the audience, rarely looking at Warren. He was low-key, thoughtful and nuanced.

That kind of nuance is hard to understand sometimes — it’s unclear, complicated. Obama’s world can be scarier. It’s multicultural. It’s realistic (yes, there is evil on the streets of this country as well as in other places, and a lot of evil has been perpetrated in the name of good). It’s honest. When does life begin? Only the antiabortionists are clear on that. For the majority of Americans (who are pro-choice), it is “above my pay grade,” in Obama’s words, where there is no hard and fast line to draw on what’s worth dying for, and where people of all faiths have to be respected.

Stupid is easy. Stupid lets you give clear and unambiguous answers to murky and complicated questions. Smart, on the other hand, requires dealing with reality.

Columnist William Kristol, a high priest of the religion of stupid, wrote of Saturday night’s whatever it was:

Obama made no big mistakes. But his tendency to somewhat windy generalities meant he wasn’t particularly compelling. McCain, who went second, was crisp by contrast, and his anecdotes colorful.

Smart is boring. Stupid is much more “compelling,” i.e., entertaining and comforting.

(Later in the same column, Kristol challenges his readers: “Where in particular has the United States in recent years — at home or especially abroad — perpetrated evil in the name of confronting evil?” He really doesn’t know. Truly, this is the Stupidity of the Gods.)

Michael Gerson, who’s just a watered-down David Brooks as far as I’m concerned, wrote,

First, the forum previewed the stylistic battle lines of the contest ahead, and it should give Democrats pause. Obama was fluent, cool and cerebral — the qualities that made Adlai Stevenson interesting but did not make him president. Obama took care to point out that he had once been a professor at the University of Chicago, but that bit of biography was unnecessary. His whole manner smacks of chalkboards and campus ivy. Issues from stem cell research to the nature of evil are weighed, analyzed and explained instead of confronted.

Now, let’s think about that last sentence. To me, weighing, analyzing and explaining issues are inseparable from “confronting” them. You have to understand an issue thoroughly before you can deal with it wisely, and sometimes the wisest course is to leave the dadblamed issue alone. In Rightieworld, however, “confronting” an issue takes these steps:

  1. Identify what you want to do (e.g., attack Iraq; help your oil industry buddies increase their profits).
  2. Find or manufacture a reason why you should do what you want to do.
  3. Overwhelm news media and the American people with blustering rhetoric about why America must do what you want to do, accompanied by juvenile taunting of anyone who disagrees with your doing what you want to do.
  4. Do the thing you want to do.
  5. Spend the next several months or years denying or making excuses for the mess you made by doing what you wanted to do.
  6. Eventually, when the mess turns out to be an undeniable failure — blame liberals.

Notice there is neither weighing nor analyzing in the list above. Weighing and analyzing is for academics and women. Red-blooded Americans take the hairy-chested, Neanderthal approach and just smash the hell out of whatever is bothering them.

Let’s talk about moral issues. I’ve written in the past about how “moral clarity” is not clear at all. “Moral clarity” is based on bullshitting yourself; a refusal to weigh and analyze all facets of an issue.

Essentially, “moral clarity” is about bullshitting yourself. It’s about not dealing honestly and compassionately with all aspects of a moral issue. Instead, the “morally clear” begin with the position they want to take and work backward to justify it, scamming themselves and others when necessary to achieve the desired outcome. This twisted way of achieving “clarity” is founded in the dualistic thinking Glenn Greenwald writes about. This dualism assumes one side of an issue must be “good” and the other must be “bad.” Thus, in much anti-choice literature embryos can talk and women who choose abortions are either ignored or assumed to have evil or selfish motivations. But real-world moral issues often involve multiple “good” sides. It is actually quite rare for people and facts to so neatly sort themselves into “good” and “bad” boxes as the morally clear want to sort them. And by achieving “clarity” based on lies and false assumptions, the “clarifiers” actually create more pain and complication.

But, by gawd, “moral clarity” works great on television. The “morally clear” can look the camera in the eye and give decisive, sound-bite answers. People attempting to deal with reality have to explain things. They must fall back on nuance. Boooooooring.

Finally, the really great thing about stupid is that it allows you to believe whatever you want to believe. Peter Dizikes writes that gurus of the Right like Rush Limbaugh and Jerome Corsi are telling people there is all kinds of cheap and readily available oil here at home if only the snotty, elitist liberals would let the noble and virtuous oil industry drill for it. In fact, Corsi tells people that petroleum is not a fossil fuel but instead is something the earth keeps regenerating, never mind what those snotty elitist scientists with their fancy Ph.D.s say.

See how we’ve solved the energy crisis? All we have to do is drill, drill, drill and we’ll get all the cheap oil and gas we want as soon as we want it. And we’ll never have to worry about an energy crisis again. We don’t have to listen to the boring liberals and their boring explanations about science and renewable energy and technology and stuff.

Stupidity like this makes me wonder how our species survived as long as it has, frankly.

McCain’s God Gap

I didn’t watch the Rick Warren thing last night; I have too much respect for Christianity to watch it debased like that. But I think meeting the white evangelical crowd was something Obama needed to do, if only so they can see he’s just a guy and not the Antichrist.

My entirely subjective opinion is that Obama is the more genuinely religious of the two candidates. McCain is just going through the motions. This may be why most religious voters prefer Obama.

A study released this week by the Barna Group, a Christian research and consulting firm based in Ventura, Calif., finds that Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee, currently enjoys the support of more faith-driven voters, including Christians, than his Republican rival.

The poll, which shows Obama ahead of McCain 43 percent to 34 percent among likely voters, also finds Obama leading in 18 of 19 different religious faith communities defined by the survey’s strict standards. McCain leads in only one—evangelicals. In that category, however, the Republican has a huge lead, 61 to 17.

The problem is that in the U.S., and in particular U.S. news media, evangelicals (especially white ones) are the only religious people who count.

The Barna poll uses unusual methodology. Many pollsters take voters at their word when they say they are evangelical Christians, but the Barna survey is unusually specific about its categorizations. It asks voters a battery of nine questions about their religious beliefs—whether, for example, they think the Bible is accurate in everything it teaches, and whether they feel a personal responsibility to share their beliefs about Christ with non-Christians. Only when all nine questions are answered affirmatively are voters categorized as “evangelical.”

That might be a bit strict. However, I still haven’t recovered from the 2003 Pew poll that determined how “religious” someone is by whether they believe in a literal Judgment Day.

The Barna pollsters err in thinking that “evangelical Christianity” is primarily religious. It is not; it is tribal. It is identity. A large part of those who fervently believe themselves to be evangelical Christians don’t know Jesus’ teachings from eggplant.

This significantly reduces the survey’s estimate of the total number of evangelical voters. By Barna’s estimate, only 8 percent of U.S. voters are truly evangelical. “That is a much smaller group than you might think,” says George Barna, the poll’s director.

Ah, but the tribe is much bigger.

The survey shows that the much debated “God gap” between Republicans and Democrats among Christian voters as a whole may not be nearly as dramatic as it appeared in 2004. Indeed, among those who self-identify as “evangelical” but who don’t fit the Barna group’s criteria, McCain holds only a 39 to 37 lead over Obama, with nearly 1 in 4 voters saying they are still undecided.

Among most other Christian groups, the Democratic candidate continues to enjoy a comfortable lead. Obama has a huge advantage among non-Christians, atheists, and agnostics, but he also leads among nonevangelical, born-again Christians (43 to 31), Christians who are neither born-again nor evangelical (44 to 28), Catholics (39 to 29), and Protestants (43 to 34). “If the current preferences stand pat,” says Barna, “this would mark the first time in more than two decades that the born-again vote has swung toward the Democratic candidate.”

I’m a little confused by “nonevangelical, born-again Christians.” Historically, the “born-again” experience was the sine qua non of evangelicalism and what set it apart from older denominations of Protestantism. If anyone out there understands this and can explain it to me, I would be grateful.

Anyway, what we know is that religious people, including most Christians, tend to favor Obama. The one group that does not is evangelical Christians. In most universes, the evangelical Christian vote would be considered an anomaly. However, in this universe, the evangelical movement is the “norm” and everyone else is the anomaly. Go figure.