Incompetence Isn’t Tempering the Malevolence

The Atlantic/Lawfare writing team of Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes coined the phrase “malevolence tempered by incompetence” in January 2017 to describe the beginnings of the Trump administration. Malevolence in the form of racism, xenophobia, and greed formed the basis of Trump’s policies, but fortunately the incompetence of his White House team blunted much of the damage that could have been done.

What might loosely be called Trump’s “response” to the pandemic is likely shot through with the same malevolence. But the incompetence is exacerbating the the malevolence.

The incompetence is vast, and deep, and nearly inexplicable. Every day brings new evidence. For example, the Washington Post just reported that in the early days of the pandemic the administration turned down an offer from an American medical supplies  company to manufacture N95 masks. And this was a company already manufacturing N95 masks, filling order from overseas.

“We are the last major domestic mask company,” he [the business owner] wrote on Jan. 23. “My phones are ringing now, so I don’t ‘need’ government business. I’m just letting you know that I can help you preserve our infrastructure if things ever get really bad. I’m a patriot first, businessman second.”

In the end, the government did not take Bowen up on his offer. Even today, production lines that could be making more than 7 million masks a month sit dormant.

Trump himself ignored the virus even after a Washington state man was diagnosed with covid-19 on January 20.  After, apparently, some nagging from public health professionals, Trump imposed partial and porous restrictions on travel from China on January 31. These were particularly Trumpian restrictions that allowed U.S. citizens to re-enter the country from China. Only non-U.S. citizens who had recently been in China were blocked from entering the country, as if only foreigners carried infection. Notice that the guy diagnosed in Washington eleven days earlier was a citizen recently returned from China.

And then Trump and his administration did pretty much nothing about the pandemic until it began to mess with the stock market on February 21. That was a Friday; the following Monday, noises about appropriating money to do something about pandemic response began to emanate from the White House. This was followed by a lot of haggling in Washington about what exactly they should be doing and how much money they would have to spend to do it.

The issue of testing came up a lot. On March 4, Mike Pence promised that 1.5 million test kits would be shipped to whoever needed them “this week.” By March 6, he had upped the promise to 4 million. These tests failed to materialize anywhere, as far as I can tell. Private labs picked up the pace somewhat, but as you know we still are falling far short of tests.

On March 3 the White House issued the first of its social distancing guidelines. By mid-March professional and college sports were cancelling the remainder of their seasons, or postponing the beginning of seasons. Cities and states closed schools and churches and turned restaurants into carryout-only operations. Finally, we were getting serious, many weeks later than we should have gotten serious.

And now, as the deaths keep coming faster and faster — we’ll be at 80,000 by tomorrow — Trump is apparently bored with the whole thing and wants to end the restrictions. This is partly, I think, coming from his justifiable fear that the ruined economy will kill his re-election chances. He also possibly resents the virus for making him look stupid, especially after the train wreck ending of The Trump Show, so he wants to go back to ignoring it.

But another reason is coming vividly into view, especially after many reports that black and brown Americans are being disproportionately hit hard by the pandemic.

Adam Serwer:

Over the weeks that followed the declaration of an emergency, the pandemic worsened and the death toll mounted. Yet by mid-April, conservative broadcasters were decrying the restrictions, small bands of armed protesters were descending on state capitols, and the president was pressing to lift the constraints.

In the interim, data about the demographics of COVID-19 victims began to trickle out. On April 7, major outlets began reporting that preliminary data showed that black and Latino Americans were being disproportionately felled by the coronavirus. That afternoon, Rush Limbaugh complained, “If you dare criticize the mobilization to deal with this, you’re going to be immediately tagged as a racist.” That night, the Fox News host Tucker Carlson announced, “It hasn’t been the disaster that we feared.” His colleague Brit Hume mused that “the disease turned out not to be quite as dangerous as we thought.” The nationwide death toll that day was just 13,000 people; it now stands above 70,000, a mere month later.

But if you’re white and/or have a white-collar sort of job that allows you to work at home or in a reasonably secluded studio, there’s a better chance the virus hasn’t touched you or anyone you know, than if you are non-white and/or at work processing meat or checking out groceries. There are exceptions, of course.

The pandemic is starting to remind me of the early days of the spread of HIV, when Reagan administration officials dismissed it as a “gay plague.” Research into AIDS was conducted at a snail’s pace. According to ACT UP, Reagan himself didn’t say the word “AIDS” publicly until 1987, and that was in the context of denying the need for sex education in schools.

In other words, as long as the disease is only speading among those other people, we don’t need to bother ourselves about it.

Back to Serwer:

That more and more Americans were dying was less important than who was dying.

The disease is now “infecting people who cannot afford to miss work or telecommute—grocery store employees, delivery drivers and construction workers,” The Washington Post reported. Air travel has largely shut down, and many of the new clusters are in nursing homes, jails and prisons, and factories tied to essential industries. Containing the outbreak was no longer a question of social responsibility, but of personal responsibility. From the White House podium, Surgeon General Jerome Adams told “communities of color” that “we need you to step up and help stop the spread.”

Public-health restrictions designed to contain the outbreak were deemed absurd. They seemed, in Carlson’s words, “mindless and authoritarian,” a “weird kind of arbitrary fascism.” To restrict the freedom of white Americans, just because nonwhite Americans are dying, is an egregious violation of the racial contract. The wealthy luminaries of conservative media have sought to couch their opposition to restrictions as advocacy on behalf of workers, but polling shows that those most vulnerable to both the disease and economic catastrophe want the outbreak contained before they return to work.

The business with meat-packing workers is especially egregious. These are low-wage jobs with notoriously bad working conditions. In many plants immigrants make up a large part of the workforce. And in many states meat-packing plants have turned into coronavirus hot spots. No one seems to be keeping a count of how many have died. Trump’s ordering meat-packers back to work without mandating better and safer working conditions is one of the most callous things a president has done in my lifetime.

It’s not just Trump. Last week the Wisconsin Supreme Court heard a challenge to the state’s pandemic restrictions. Chief Justice Patience Roggensack interrupted oral arguments about infections in Brown County and said, “Due to the meatpacking, though, that’s where the Brown County got the flare. It wasn’t just the regular folks in Brown County.” I guess if the virus spread is emanating from the meat packing plant it doesn’t count.

It gets worse. This past week the governor of Nebraska issued a “gag order” that prohibits release of information on the infection in Nebraska meat packing plants.

Trump probably figures the immigrant and nonwhite workers he’s putting at risk aren’t going to vote for him, anyway. But rural poor whites are a big part of his voter base, also, and these “regular folks” work in risky jobs. Polls tell us that college-educated whites — more of whom can work from home — tend to prefer Biden by about a 15 percentage point margin. Trump needs to take care he doesn’t kill part of his own base.

In this April 2020, photo provided by Tyson Foods, workers wear protective masks and stand between plastic dividers at the company’s Camilla, Georgia poultry processing plant. Tyson has added the plastic dividers to create separation between workers because of the coronavirus outbreak. (Tyson Foods via AP)In this April 2020, photo provided by Tyson Foods, workers wear protective masks and stand between plastic dividers at the company’s Camilla, Georgia poultry processing plant. Tyson has added the plastic dividers to create separation between workers because of the coronavirus outbreak. (Tyson Foods via AP)
The Associated Press https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/stopping-virus-huge-challenge-crowded-us-meat-plants-70300170

No Justice, No Ventilators

As I understand it, it is possible the judge in the Michael Flynn case could choose to not drop it.

The Department of Justice on Thursday told U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan in Washington it wants to drop the case against Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, following a pressure campaign by the Republican president and his political allies.

While judges typically sign off on such motions, Sullivan could refuse and instead demand answers from the DOJ about who requested the sudden about-face, said Seth Waxman, a former federal prosecutor now at the law firm Dickinson Wright.

“If Judge Sullivan wanted to he could conduct an inquiry and start asking a lot of questions,” said Waxman. …

… While the judge still has to rule on the submission, elated supporters of Flynn said there was no way Sullivan could force the department to prosecute if it did not want to. But the judge could stop Flynn from withdrawing his guilty plea and impose sentence. In that case, Trump could pardon Flynn.

It would be better to force Trump to pardon Flynn than to sign off on dropping the case, IMO. Absurdly, the Trump campaign sees Flynn as their Nelson Mandela, a hero persecuted by the evil deep state. I’m not seeing anyone who is not already a Trump cultie being impressed with that, though.

See also Reuters:

The notoriously independent-minded federal judge who once said he was disgusted by the conduct of Michael Flynn could block the administration’s bid to drop criminal charges against the former adviser to President Donald Trump, legal experts said.

The Department of Justice on Thursday told U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan in Washington it wants to drop the case against Flynn, Trump’s former national security adviser, following a pressure campaign by the Republican president and his political allies.

While judges typically sign off on such motions, Sullivan could refuse and instead demand answers from the DOJ about who requested the sudden about-face, said Seth Waxman, a former federal prosecutor now at the law firm Dickinson Wright.

Marcy Wheeler dissects the DOJ’s arguments for dropping the Flynn case here. I am not going to attempt to sum this up except to say that she makes a good case that the judge is more likely to be annoyed than impressed with the DOJ.

“If Judge Sullivan wanted to he could conduct an inquiry and start asking a lot of questions,” said Waxman.

Stay tuned.

See also:

David Frum, The Secrets Flynn Was Desperate to Conceal

Susan Hennessey, Quinta Jurecic, Benjamin Wittes, An Ugly Day for the Justice Department

Paul Waldman, Barr’s corrupt decision points to Trump’s moral rot of our institutions.

So it is that Attorney General William Barr, having already worked to secure a lighter sentence for Trump pal Roger Stone, has now given former Trump national security adviser Michael Flynn the equivalent of a get-out-of-jail-free card, abandoning the case against him just as Flynn was about to be sentenced.

Soon after, Trump spoke on the phone to Vladimir Putin, and the two had good reason to celebrate together. While Putin’s 2016 effort to get Trump elected was in large part an attempt to discredit western democracy, he could barely have imagined how effective it would be. Not only is our election system now in a credibility crisis, Trump has made our legal system a joke, too. What could make Putin happier?

See also Trump cryptically tells reporters ‘a lot of things’ might happen soon following call with Putin.

President Trump is celebrating throwback Thursday with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump told reporters on Thursday that he spoke on the phone with Putin and the two discussed the investigation into Russian election interference. That investigation determined that Russia had meddled to aid Trump in 2016, did not find prosecutable proof of collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia, and did not determine whether administration officials sought to obstruct the probe.

Reiterating his displeasure with the investigation, Trump said the “Russia hoax” was “very hard” on the U.S. and Russia’s foreign relations. “And we discussed that,” said Trump of his call with Putin, also noting he offered to send Russia ventilators to aid COVID-19 patients.

Would those be some of the ventilators confiscated from hospitals and states, I wonder?

Why the Justice Department Dropped the Michael Flynn Case

Yeah, our utterly corrupt Justice Department just dropped the Michael Flynn case.

The Justice Department moved Thursday to drop charges against former national security adviser Michael T. Flynn, who pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about his Russian contacts during the presidential transition.

The unraveling of Flynn’s guilty plea marked a stunning reversal by the Justice Department in the case of the former three-star Army general, who was convicted in special counsel Robert S. Mueller III’s investigation of Russian interference in the 2016 U.S. presidential election.

In court documents filed Thursday, the Justice Department said “after a considered review of all the facts and circumstances of this case, including newly discovered and disclosed information… the government has concluded that [Flynn’s interview by the FBI] was untethered to, and unjustified by, the FBI’s counterintelligence investigation into Mr. Flynn” and that the interview on January 24, 2017 was “conducted without any legitimate investigative basis.”

I guess we should have seen this coming. Lying scumbag and faux attorney general William Barr has been making noises about how the entire investigation into Russian interference of the 2016 election was just a witch hunt perpetrated by “deep state” operatives opposed to Donald Trump. Well, he didn’t say that exactly, but he was hinting at it loudly.

Barr has been investigating the Russian investigation for nearly a year now, at Donald Trump’s request. This is from May 24, 2019:

President Trump has handed Attorney General William Barr the keys to the vault.

Trump has authorized Barr to “declassify, downgrade, or direct the declassification or downgrading of information or intelligence” related to the origins of the investigation into Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential campaign, according to an official order.

The White House says that will mean he can be freer to reveal wrongdoing if he finds it. Democrats call it a bid to scare up political “weapons.”

The memo signaled how much Trump wants Barr to not only go ahead with the efforts he has discussed to review the early period of the inquiry — and officials’ use of the law and their investigative powers — but to also get what Barr uncovers out into the open quickly.

The argument has been that the entire Russian interference investigation was not lawful because whatever warrants or authorities being used to conduct it were obtained under false pretenses. The Steele dossier gets dragged into this part of the claim a lot.

Apparently Barr wasn’t finding anything resembling a smoking gun. Then a few days ago some new FBI documents breathed some life into the conspiracy theories. Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes wrote at Lawfare a week ago:

Why the sudden interest in the Golden Oldies of the Trump scandals? The reason is the release of some documents from inside the FBI dealing with Flynn’s original interview by agents from the bureau, back from the period when the Trump administration was just coming into power. Flynn’s sentencing on his guilty plea for lying in that interview has been serially delayed. According to some commentators, the documents supposedly show that he was somehow set up, framed or entrapped. A lot of people seem to be expecting his sudden vindication. And a lot more people, some of whom should know better, seem remarkably credulous of Flynn’s new claims.

They should take a deep breath.

The president may well pardon Flynn, as he has long hinted. It’s possible—though for reasons we’ll explain, we think unlikely—that Judge Emmet G. Sullivan will allow Flynn to withdraw his plea. And it’s possible as well that Attorney General William Barr, who has already intervened in the case once before and has asked a U.S. attorney to review its handling, will intervene once again on Flynn’s behalf.

So far, however, nothing has emerged that remotely clears Flynn; nothing has emerged that would require Sullivan to allow him to withdraw his plea; and nothing has emerged that would justify the Justice Department’s backing off of the case—or prosecuting it aggressively if Flynn were somehow allowed out of the very generous deal Special Counsel Robert Mueller cut him.

Jurecic and Wittes go into detail about things going on with Flynn and FBI documents and whatnot that I’m still digesting myself.  Lots of names that will be familiar from the days of the Mueller Report come up. Although there’s not much to the newly released documents, my guess is that Barr is dropping the case to give the appearance that this is some significant new evidence showing that the entire Russian interference story was a hoax.

See also Trump says new FBI notes exonerate Michael Flynn, analysts say that’s not the case.

I’m sure there will be more commentary on this as the day goes on.

What If the Grand Re-Opening Fizzles?

Although the original Trump Show is gone, there will soon be a spinoff — The Grand Re-Opening Starring Trump. Paul Waldman explains,

It’ll be a show about a great American economic comeback, and Trump will be the star. It will involve a running series of photo ops and media events, buttressed by fantastical lies and deception.  …

…What Trump does is PR. So that’s what he’ll do.

He’ll visit factories carefully chosen with MAGA hat-wearing CEOs who will play their part and thank him profusely for getting America back on its feet. He’ll hold events at the White House where he can sit inside a truck and honk the horn like a real big boy. He’ll tout the progress of the stock market. He’ll have rallies again — so many rallies — where he’ll say that no one has ever seen such an amazing comeback, it’s fantastic, it’s incredible, world leaders are calling me to say how impressed they are. He’ll remind us that the pandemic was the fault of China and Democratic governors and Barack Obama, but he brought prosperity back.

I don’t doubt that’s exactly what he’s planning. He’s already started The Re-Opening Tour by touring a mask factory, without a mask, while a loudspeaker played “Live and Let Die.” I’m hearing now the tour was also accompanied by “House of the Rising Sun.”

Whoever was in charge of the factory sound system: We salute you.

One possible drawback to this plan, beside mass death, is that nobody expects the economy be anything to brag about come November. In December 2019 — before anyone had heard of covid-19 —  economists seemed kind of meh about 2020. Personal debt already was unusually high, as were auto-loan delinquencies. A number of factors, including Trump’s trade war with China, pointed to a global slowdown.

In November, 53 forecasters surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics predicted growth of 1.8% in 2020, down from an expected 2.3% in 2019, with recession odds rising from 5% currently to 43% by the end of 2020.

Again, that was before we knew there would be a pandemic. Now, we’re all in unknown territory. I doubt anyone can predict exactly what the economy will do the remainder of the year.

… investors could be in for another shock as Covid-19 continues to kill Americans and devastate the private sector. A parade of companies, including some of the nation’s largest profit machines, are reporting lower profits or warning that earnings could struggle in the coming months as consumers stay cautious and businesses assume the crash position. Many other CEOs are simply throwing up their hands and offering a giant shrug.

“Companies have no idea what is going to happen whatsoever,” said Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research Inc. “I’m an optimist. I had a happy childhood. But you have to be a realist here that there are going to be aftershocks and no V-shaped recovery. Plenty of companies — especially retail, hotels, restaurants and airlines — would be happy to get 50 percent of their peak business back a year from now.”

Maybe it won’t be that bad. Maybe it’ll be worse. Predictions are all over the map. Personally, I predict that small businesses will continue to be screwed, and huge numbers of them simply will not come back. That prediction is based partly on what’s going on in the Senate right now:

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), the chairman of the Senate Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee, blocked an attempt by Democrats to pass a bill that would require the Trump administration to report new details on how small-business aid is being dispersed amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Translation: Money allocated for small business will mostly end up in the pockets of people who have little connection to small business. Bye bye, small business.

Although Republican voters on the whole may still think Trump walks on water, a majority of them are not behind a big re-opening of the economy just yet. And a whopping majority of the rest of us think Trump is pushing the economy to re-open too fast.

A poll from The Washington Post and the University of Maryland released yesterday finds that eight in 10 Americans oppose reopening movie theaters and gyms; three-quarters don’t support letting sit-down restaurants and nail salons reopen; and a third or less would allow barber shops, gun stores, and retail stores to operate. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll last week found similar numbers: Nine in 10 Americans don’t think sporting events should have crowds without more testing; 85 percent would keep schools closed, and 80 percent would keep dine-in restaurants shut. There is no significant difference in views between residents of states that have begun loosening restrictions and those that have not.

Here in Missouri, the utterly worthless Gov. Mike Parsons has decided live music concerts can resume, as of two days ago, stipulating that concert-goers must be spaced six feet apart. I’ve been looking for evidence that anybody is holding a live music concert anytime soon. No announcements so far. The biggest cities — St. Louis, Kansas City, and Springfield — are keeping venues closed. Some live entertainment venues will begin opening in tourist town Branson on May 15.  We’ll see how that works out.

The Kansas City Star: 

Inexplicably, the governor’s “Show Me Strong” economic recovery plan included a woefully premature green light for socially distanced concerts. What, exactly, a distanced concert looks like is still unclear and why anyone would attend a live event during a pandemic remains an unanswered question.

Fortunately, most concert organizers and venue operators so far are exercising better judgment than the governor.

With so many people out of work, or worried they soon could be out of work, I’m betting that people will hang on to their money for a while and spend it only on essentials. But again, we’ll see. There may be enough people willing to risk their lives to go mall shopping or attend the Branson Elvis Festival to make the re-opening profitable. Not me, but other people. I just plan on surviving until November, so I can vote.

Keeping Up With the Numbers

As expected, some time in the early morning today someone became the 70,000th American to die of covid 19, officially. The real number of deaths is considerably higher, experts tell us, possibly by tens of thousands.

And, of course, those aren’t just numbers. Those are people. They are mourned. They mattered.

The virus is spreading rapidly into less populated areas. From Axios, yesterday:

The big picture: The hardest-hit areas so far have mostly been in states with Democratic governors. But the number of coronavirus cases is now increasing more quickly in states with Republican governors.

By the numbers: Coronavirus cases and deaths are both higher in Democratic states than in Republican ones, even after adjusting for population.

However, over the last two weeks, reported infections have increased 91% in red states versus 63% in blue states.

We see the same pattern for COVID-19 deaths: 170% growth in red states vs. 104% in blue states.

Reproduced from Kaiser Family Foundation; Data from The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins, U.S. Census Bureau; Chart: Axios Visuals

It’s a safe bet no one has had the nerve to tell Trump that the pandemic is poised to infect large numbers of his own voters. He still seems to be thinking that the pandemic is confined to blue states.

President Donald Trump says it would be unfair to Republicans if Congress passes coronavirus “bailouts” for states because he said the states that would benefit from that funding are run by Democrats.

It’s not like there are Americans living in those states or anything.

“I think Congress is inclined to do a lot of things but I don’t think they’re inclined to do bailouts. A bailout is different than, you know, reimbursing for the plague,” Trump told the New York Post in a sit-down interview in the Oval Office on Monday.

The president continued, “It’s not fair to the Republicans because all the states that need help — they’re run by Democrats in every case. Florida is doing phenomenal, Texas is doing phenomenal, the Midwest is, you know, fantastic — very little debt.”

States in general are not exactly rolling in money, and nearly all of them have some kind of balanced budget requirement. That means that as state and local funds are diverted to pandemic response there will be less money for things like police, firefighters, teachers, sanitation workers. Any state — red, blue, or purple — that gets slammed by the pandemic is going to need help from the federal government. And since the red states tend to be poorer, in effect many of them have been getting federal “bailout” money for years. Courtesy of blue state taxpayers.

Trump is going all-out to persuade us all to give up on the social distancing and go back to work. He is clearly willing to trade lives for the economy. My sense of things is that a lot of Americans have been lulled into believing the worst is over. But it’s possible we haven’t seen the worst yet. Trump is betting all of our futures on what a virus might do.

Jay Rosen warns us of what’s coming:

The plan is to have no plan, to let daily deaths between one and three thousand become a normal thing, and then to create massive confusion about who is responsible— by telling the governors they’re in charge without doing what only the federal government can do, by fighting with the press when it shows up to be briefed, by fixing blame for the virus on China or some other foreign element, and by “flooding the zone with shit,” Steve Bannon’s phrase for overwhelming the system with disinformation, distraction, and denial, which boosts what economists call “search costs” for reliable intelligence. 

Stated another way, the plan is to default on public problem solving, and then prevent the public from understanding the consequences of that default. To succeed this will require one of the biggest propaganda and freedom of information fights in U.S. history, the execution of which will, I think, consume the president’s re-election campaign. So much has already been made public that the standard script for a White House cover up (worse than the crime…) won’t apply. Instead, everything will ride on the manufacture of confusion. The press won’t be able to “expose” the plot because it will all happen in stark daylight. The facts will be known, and simultaneously they will be inconceivable.

Will Trump get away with this? Among some Americans, certainly. But what percentage? I’d like to think it won’t be a high enough percentage to save him, especially as the virus spreads and touches more and more families.

Paul Waldman writes that Trump is massively miscalculating what most Americans think right now.

“I think they’re starting to feel good now. The country’s opening again. We saved millions of lives, I think.”

That’s what President Trump told the New York Post in an interview Monday. And while he may be partially wrong on the second point and spectacularly wrong on the third, I’d suggest that he really does believe Americans are feeling good, if you define “good” as “ready to stop worrying about the coronavirus pandemic and get back to normal activity.”

But he’s wrong about that, too. Trump has a fundamental misunderstanding about what Americans are thinking and feeling right now, a misunderstanding that has not only guided his decision-making throughout this crisis but helped cost the lives of untold thousands of Americans.

Waldman goes on to cite polls showing that large majorities of Americans are still worried they and loved ones will be infected. Large majorities say they would feel uncomfortable shopping in most retail stores and eating in sit-down restaurants right now.

When Texas partially lifted its lockdown order, people went to parks and beaches but stayed away from malls and stores. “There’s absolutely no one coming around here,” said an employee of a clothing store at a mall in Austin.

And that’s what economists have been saying all along; you really can’t “open” the economy while people are still — very justifiably — afraid of catching a sometimes fatal disease. It never was an either-or — death or GDP? — until Trump made it one with his own incompetence.

Some are saying Trump is unraveling; I question whether he is any more “unraveled” than he ever was. He is a seriously warped individual who assumes most people are as warped, as selfish, as narcissistic, as he is. For example, George W. Bush’s “Call to Unite” video, which is about as inoffensive as anything Dubya ever did, made Trump go ballistic.

I mean, this is the kind of thing people usually say at times like these. A psychologically normal person would, at the very least, say something about it like isn’t that nice? But not our Trump.

Everything is about him, and nothing about him is normal. Were it not for the fact that the Republican party has been taken over by zombies Trump would have been bounced out of office months ago.

It’s also the case that “uniting” isn’t something that Trump grasps, in spite of his claims to be a “uniter.” For that matter, George W. Bush wasn’t very good at it, either, in spite of the gushing sentiments in the video. But at least Dubya appreciated that “uniting” is something the American people are supposed to do in times of crisis, and so we must pay lip service to it. Trump’s idea of “uniting” is that everyone is supposed to to adore him.

Vice President Pence just announced that the coronavirus task force itself will soon be disbanded. I guess if the Trump Show is cancelled, there’s no point keeping the cast around. This may be a signal that we’re about to declare the pandemic over. Maybe Trump will sign an executive order to end it.

And one of Trump’s discarded officials, an FDA commissioner named Scott Gottlieb, said on Face the Nation Sunday that we could have 100,000 deaths by the end of June. No, dude, at the rate we’re going, we’ll have 100,000 dead before the end of May. Easily. I wish these people would keep up with the numbers.

Brace Yourselves for a Long, Hot Summer

It’s been fifty years since the Kent State shootings.

The angry mobs brandishing firearms who oppose pandemic restrictions are another massacre waiting to happen, IMO. Yes, many states are ending restrictions now. But for how long? The deaths are not going away.

As President Trump presses for states to reopen their economies, his administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on government modeling pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

The numbers underscore a sobering reality: While the United States has been hunkered down for the past seven weeks, not much has changed. And the reopening to the economy will make matters worse.

The calculation appears to be that people will be so happy about going back to work they won’t notice the death part. We’ll see.

Today there are reports that a security guard in a Family Dollar store in Flint, Michigan, was shot in the head and killed by an angry customer. The customer, according to social media, was confronted by the guard because he wasn’t wearing a mask. Police are investigating.

Also, too:

A Colorado man arrested after federal agents allegedly discovered pipe bombs in his home had also been helping organize an armed protest demanding the state lift its coronavirus restrictions, an official briefed on the case tells ABC News.

It’s going to be a nasty summer, folks. Long and hot.

I’ve been watching the estimated death toll kind of obsessively. It keeps going up faster than anyone, including me, calculates. Remember last week when I wrote about a guy in the Washington Times predicting that we’d reach 70,000 dead by the end of August? We’ll pass 70,000 later today or early tomorrow.

Aaron Rupar writes at Vox:

President Donald Trump’s “America Together: Returning to Work” Fox News town hall event was a remarkably dishonest affair, replete with lies about topics ranging from the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine on Covid-19 to the trajectory of new coronavirus cases in the country to how tariffs work. At one point, Trump whined that he’s treated worse than Abraham Lincoln — a president who was assassinated.

But one moment of unusual honesty stood out.

With the US coronavirus death toll approaching 70,000 as of May 4 — a grim milestone significantly beyond the “50 or 60,000” number that Trump said the country was “going toward” on April 20 — Trump revised his estimate upward. And he acknowledged he was doing so.

“I used to say 65,000. Now I’m saying 80 or 90, and it goes up and it goes up rapidly. But it’s still going to be, no matter how you look at it, at the very lower end of the plane if we did the shutdown,” Trump said, alluding to the 100,000-to-200,000 death estimate cited in late March by public health experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

Especially with so many states loosening restrictions, we could reach 200,000 or more deaths before Labor Day. At 3,000 a day, make that before July 4. We’ll likely be halfway there some time this month. By August Trump will be congratulating himself it’s not 500,000 dead.

The epidemiologists say the virus is going to be with us for a long time. One new report says it will be around for a couple of years and won’t be halted until there is at least 70 percent herd immunity. People who assume it’s almost over — which could be a majority of Americans, for all I know — are going to be very disappointed.

When we do get through this, we will be in a very different place from where we were in January 2020. A great many small businesses are not going to survive, thanks in large part to the inability of our government to do anything but feed the corruption monster. Annie Lowrey writes at The Atlantic,

The government is engaged in an unprecedented effort to save such companies as pandemic-related shutdowns stretch into the spring. But Washington’s policies are too complicated, too small, and too slow for many firms: Across the United States, millions of small businesses are struggling, and millions are failing. The great small-business die-off is here, and it will change the landscape of American commerce, auguring slower growth and less innovation in the future.

Small businesses went into this recession more fragile than their larger cousins: Before the crisis hit, half of them had less than two weeks’ worth of cash on hand, making it impossible to cover rent, insurance, utilities, and payroll through any kind of sustained downturn. And the coronavirus downturn has indeed been shocking and sustained: Data from credit-card processors suggest that roughly 30 percent of small businesses have shut down during the pandemic. Transaction volumes, a decent-enough proxy for sales, show even bigger dips: Travel agencies are down 98 percent, photography studios 88 percent, day-care centers 75 percent, and advertising agencies 60 percent.

Lowrey goes on to explain all the ways the stimulus/relief programs have failed to do what they were intended to do, which was to keep small business on life support until it was safe to open up again. I’m not going to repeat all that here; you know much of it already, I’m sure. Washington is a machine fine-tuned to funnel money to the monied, and when it came time to send money to people who really needed it to survive, it did what it did best — send it to those with connections.

Indeed, loans of $1 million or more soaked up half of the initial $350 billion allocated by Congress. Whiter, less populated states got more loan money per capita, with Vermont, North Dakota, and Minnesota overrepresented and Nevada, Florida, and California underrepresented. Researchers found no evidence that money went to the places and industries hit hardest, as measured by business closures and declines in hours worked. The accommodation- and food-services sector accounted for two in three jobs lost, but received just 9 percent of federal aid dollars.

When this is over we’re going to need a New Deal to get the economy going again.

We’re already a much-diminished nation. The world is learning it doesn’t need us. For example, see The world came together for a virtual vaccine summit. The U.S. was conspicuously absent in WaPo.

World leaders came together in a virtual summit Monday to pledge billions of dollars to quickly develop vaccines and drugs to fight the coronavirus. …

…The conference, led by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and a half-dozen countries, was set to raise $8.2 billion from governments, philanthropies and the private sector to fund research and mass-produce drugs, vaccines and testing kits to combat the virus that has killed nearly 250,000 people worldwide.

With the money came soaring rhetoric about international solidarity, and a good bit of boasting about each country’s efforts and achievements, live and prerecorded, by Germany’s Angela Merkel, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Britain’s Boris Johnson, Japan’s Shinzo Abe — alongside Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The U.S. could not provide a reason why it did not participate. It just didn’t. Russia and India also were absent.

IMO the future balance of power will be between the EU and China. Indeed, if the 20th was the American Century, the 21st may end up being the Chinese Century. See Anne Applebaum, The Rest of the World Is Laughing at Trump. “Whoever replaces Pompeo will have only four short years to repair the damage, and that might not be enough,” she writes. And if Trump wins another term, the world will know we are no longer a serious nation.

So we’re screwed. But we’ve got the next few months to get through. Stay home as much as you can. Wash your hands. Don’t touch your face. Wear a mask. Outlive the bastards.

 

 

Beware of Fly By Night PPE Suppliers

This is a follow up to my April 4 post, Are the Trumps Engaged in Profiteering? You might remember this bit:

On March 27 Politico reported that a prominent DC-based Republican fundraiser had just notified his clients that he would not be working to raise funds for them after April 1. And why not? Because he’s going into the medical supplies business.

The fundraiser, Mike Gula, formed a company called Blue Flame Medical LLC, and he promoted himself as the guy to go to for all your pandemic needs.

“I don’t want to overstate, but we probably represent the largest global supply chain for Covid-19 supplies right now,” he said. “We are getting ready to fill 100 million-unit mask orders.”

Gula had no background in the medical supplies field, nor did he explain exactly what his connections were. He just said he had a lot of connections and had partnered with a lot of firms, but didn’t say anything specific.

Now Blue Flame is in the news again.

Maryland is asking its attorney general to investigate a new company formed to buy and distribute protective gear after a $12.5 million shipment of face masks and ventilators for use in the novel coronavirus pandemic never arrived, the Wall Street Journal reports. …

Details: Maryland state officials ordered the medical supplies from Blue Flame Medical LLC, which was founded by Mike Gula, a former fundraiser for the Republican Party, WSJ reports.

Maryland officials said they waited over 30 days for the medical supplies.

Gula told Maryland officials in a letter that the state’s order had been seized by officials in China, and said he plans to deliver the materials soon after switching to a new supplier.

Maryland has more than 24,000 confirmed cases of the coronavirus.

How can an ambitious guy make a quick buck in these conditions, I ask you? At least it was Chinese officials and not FEMA that seized the shipment this time. Maryland says it has waited a month for the shipment and won’t wait any longer. And, anyway, Maryland has its own connections in South Korea, thank you.

Righties Have Mythology, Not a Cause

Here’s another measure of What We’re Up Against — you may have heard there are very preliminary but still promising indications that the drug remdesivir may have some effectiveness in treating covid-19. It’s not a cure by any means, but it might help.

Weirdly, however, the MAGA-heads are shunning remdesivir and remaining loyal to the now discredited hydroxychloroquine. And they’re going this even though Trump promoted remdesivir in an Oval Office event and saw to it the FDA gave it a go-ahead to be used to treat covid-19.

Tina Nguyen reports in Politico that the people who promoted hydroxychloroquine — Fox News’s Laura Ingraham, for example — as a miracle cure are talking down remdesivir as too dangerous and too expensive. And why would this be?

The unexpected reaction appears to stem from the differences in how the two drugs came into the public spotlight. Hydroxychloroquine bubbled up through the MAGA grassroots — little-known investors promoted it online, got on Fox News and suddenly the president was talking about it from the White House. Remdesivir’s progress came through a government-funded trial that had the blessing of Dr. Anthony Fauci, the bête noire of Trump hardliners who blame the government’s top infectious disease expert for undermining the president and causing unnecessary economic damage with his social-distancing guidelines.

It’s also the case that remdesivir is still under patent to the ironically named Gilead Sciences, Inc., which makes it a Big Pharma product, whereas hydroxychloroquine is available in generic form. Apparently that makes hydroxychloroquine better, even if it doesn’t work.

These factors were likely enough to turn off people who had been using hydroxychloroquine as a political rallying cry, said David Rapp, a psychology professor at Northwestern University who studies how misinformation shapes beliefs and memory.

The hydroxychloroquine boosters, he said, “might find the alternative idea as not being pure, in the sense that it doesn’t come from Trump. It’s coming from other sources that they might not trust.”

In other words, there is absolutely nothing that escapes the tribal loyalty filter. Hydroxychloroquine has been accepted as the approved drug of the tribe; remdesivir is being pushed by outsiders and is therefore unacceptable.

Dana Milbank pointed out today that the gun-toting protesters swaming state capitol buildings appear to have no agenda other than being really, really angry. About something.

At the American Patriot Rally at the state Capitol in Lansing, Mich., on Thursday, many of the hundreds of protesters wore red “Make America Great Again” caps or flew “Trump 2020” banners and “Build the Wall” or “Drain the Swamp” signs. Others waved the yellow “Don’t Tread on Me” flags of the tea party. Demonstrators, several armed with military-style guns, then marched into the statehouse and stared down the police.

What did they propose to do with these weapons? Shoot the virus? Shoot the governor? Shoot themselves in the foot?

They didn’t seem to have a plan. They were there to rail against Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s pandemic restrictions, though hers are not so different from those in other states, even those run by Republican governors. They howled about “tyranny” even though the country is now run by the man they helped elect. They fretted about losing their Second Amendment rights even as they carried guns, legally under Michigan law, into the Capitol. They complained about runaway government spending and money-printing even though Trump and the GOP have championed it.

I think we can say this is not a deeply informed crew. But in the past I have observed that righties tend to process information as allegories and symbols of things they value, or not, rather than deal with facts. They are living inside a complex myth in which they are noble and virtuous somethings — warriors? patriots? — perpetually beset by dark and satanic forces striving to deprive them of their Freedom. Freedom in this sense is a word weighted with murky symbolism that doesn’t seem to have much to do with individualism — our righties do think and act as one, like a dystopian Borg Collective –civil liberty, national security, or the rule of law. But whatever it is, it’s really, really important.

Likewise, the drugs hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir represent something to righties that is disconnected from science or medicine. It may be a little difficult to put one’s finger on exactly what that something is, and righties probably would be challenged to explain it themselves. But in the myth that forms their worldview, one drug is righteous and the other is not.

The one thing we can say about the pandemic protesters is that they’ve got grievances up the wazoo. We can question whether their grievances are justified, of course. A great many people have pointed out that in the U.S., only white men get to display firearms in a threatening manner with impunity. A mob of men carrying firearms — many of them semi-automatic rifles — into a legislative building like that wouldn’t be tolerated anywhere else in the world, I believe. Yet these guys think they suffer from a lack of freedom, or something. They are aggrieved, for sure.

This reminds me of one of my favorite Eric Hoffer quotes, from The True Believer:

Passionate hatred can give meaning and purpose to an empty life. Thus people haunted by the purposelessness of their lives try to find a new content not only by dedicating themselves to a holy cause but also by nursing a fanatical grievance. A mass movement offers them unlimited opportunities for both.

The “holy cause” in this case appears to be some 1950s-era Disneyfied vision of “patriotism” mingled — in some cases — with Christian dominionism. And of course there’s a lot of white nationalism mixed in there also. It’s less religion than a twisted idea of religion, just as their “patriotism” is a bizarro world idea of patriotism that has little resemblance to the real thing. Note, for example, the frequent use of Confederate and Nazi symbols by right-wing extremist groups in the U.S. However, it has to be said that some Michigan protesters accused Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of being a Nazi. Some parts of their mythology may need some work.

And there also must be villains. Dr. Anthony Fauci is a villain to the pandemic protesters, as is Bill Gates and a few other random people.

This guy in the photo below seems certain Dr. Fauci is wrong. About what? Maybe I’m being unfair, but I’d be willing to bet money this fellow has only a vague idea of anything Dr. Fauci ever said about anything and couldn’t defend his opinion that the doctor is wrong if his life depended on it. Fauci is wrong because of what he represents, namely the satanic forces calling for mask-wearing and sheltering in place and other weenie things that manly MAGA-heads just don’t do.

Although some of the people in the various pandemic protests have worn mask, mask-wearing itself is quickly becoming a mark of one’s tribe. See Wearing a mask is for smug liberals. Refusing to is for reckless Republicans.

This just happened:  Oklahoma city ends face mask rule for shoppers after store employees are threatened

The mayor of an Oklahoma city amended an emergency declaration requiring customers to wear face masks while inside businesses after store employees were threatened with violence.

Stillwater Mayor Will Joyce announced the change Friday afternoon, less than 24 hours after the declaration took effect.

“In the short time beginning on May 1, 2020, that face coverings have been required for entry into stores/restaurants, store employees have been threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse,” City Manager Norman McNickle said in a statement. “In addition, there has been one threat of violence using a firearm.”

Joyce said in a series of tweets that he expected some pushback on requiring face masks but did not think there would be physical confrontations with employees and threatening phone calls to City Hall.

It’s increasingly the case that dealing with American right-wingers is a bit like dealing with hyenas. You can’t reason with them; all you can do is try to placate them so they don’t bite you. But the mayor should have enforced the law and thrown some of the hyenas in jail, IMO.

In brief, the Right has no ideas. It has no cause. It has no arguments. It has no agenda, other than maintaining the dominance of the tribe, its privileges, and its myths.

Jamil Smith wrote in Rolling Stone,

Perverting the Second Amendment and using firearms in lieu of a good argument is an American tradition at this point, particularly for white men. I mean, anyone arguing this is an “age of Trump” development needs to pick up a history book. This is some antebellum stuff here, some things that date back to before America was America. Violence or the threat thereof has been a method of political intimidation since time immemorial, and whiteness helps many escape legal or fatal punishment that others do not.

See also my blog post No Cause, Just a Movement from 2010. This was about teabaggers.

The point is that (a) the teabaggers don’t actually have a cause, just a lot of resentments; and (2) their slogans and symbols are displays of tribal dominance only. Most teabaggers have no idea what the slogans and symbols mean.

That’s still true. None of it means anything, probably. It’s all just reflecting the angry, twisted archetypes lurking in their ids. And you can’t reason with or compromise with such people, because there’s nothing there that would be the basis of any productive discussion or compromise. There’s just resentment. There’s just anger.

Morons in Michigan

Demonstrators take part in a rally organized Thursday by Michigan United for Liberty on the steps of the Michigan State Capitol in Lansing, demanding the reopening of businesses. Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images

This photograph above of a large pack of morons in Lansing, Michigan, was taken bleeping yesterday. It’s enough to make one suspect that white people are congenitally stupid.

I can’t make out any firearms in that photograph, but we’ve all heard about the armed men who entered the Michigan capitol building to intimidate the legislators.

Protesters wearing protective masks gather outside the doors of the chamber room at the Michigan Capitol Building CREDIT: BLOOMBERG

These guys below, for example, certainly look like they’re ready for an open minded discussion. Or not.

Trump tweet, today.

No, we don’t negotiate with terrorists. Sorry. Officials properly elected by the people do not have to make a deal with goons with guns.

These protests are picking up steam, and no doubt viral load, in several parts of the country. Somebody is going to get killed. And yeah, this really is starting to look how the Nazis got started in Germany.

A lawsuit alleging that Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer’s stay-at-home orders infringed constitutional rights failed to persuade a judge in the Michigan Court of Claims.

The plaintiffs in the case claimed that the “mandatory quarantine,” along with interstate travel restrictions listed in an earlier version of the order, violated their rights to both procedural due process and substantive due process.

“But those liberty interests are, and always have been, subject to society’s interests—society being our fellow residents,” said Court of Claims Judge Christopher M. Murray.

“They—our fellow residents—have an interest to remain unharmed by a highly communicable and deadly virus, and since the state entered the Union in 1837, it has had the broad power to act for the public health of the entire state when faced with a public crisis.”

I tried to find the text of the judge’s ruling but failed; it may be that the Michigan Court of Claims doesn’t put rulings online. There have been court cases involving a state’s authority to enforce quarantines and other restrictions on public gatherings, including the closings of church services, schools, and businesses during epidemics going way back, more than a century, and courts have found that such restrictions are within a state’s power as reserved to states by the 10th Amendment. The only times courts have denied a state the power to enact public health restrictions is when the public health emergency isn’t clearly apparent and the restrictions only fall on one class of people, such as Chinese immigrants in one old case. But otherwise it has been long established that states really can put temporary restrictions on people’s movements and actions during an epidemic. See The Pandemic, the Constitution, and Civil Liberties.